Weekly Western Leaders (to March 7^th, 2021) – in bold leads the NHL

Goals – 15 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Assists – 28 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Points – 43 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

PPP – 18 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Shots on Goal – 101 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton (120 – Brady Tkachuk)

Shooting % (min 22 SOG) – 31.8 – Marcus Foligno – Minnesota

PIM – 39 – Tyler Myers – Vancouver (43 – Trent Frederic)

Best plus/minus – plus 16 – Leon Draisaitl – Edmonton (plus 22 – Joel Edmundson)

Worst plus/minus – minus 16 – Quinn Hughes – Vancouver (minus 21 – Rasmus Dahlin)

Hits – 99 – Jani Hakanpaa – Anaheim (115 – Radko Gudas)

Blocked shots – 78 – Adam Larsson – Edmonton

FOW – 341 – Ryan O'Reilly – St. Louis

FOL – 285 – Bo Horvat – Vancouver

FO% (min 125 FO) – 60.1 – Pierre-Edouard Bellemare – Colorado (67.7 Luke Glendening)

Giveaways – 34 – Nate Schmidt – Vancouver (40 – Jack Hughes, Thomas Chabot)

Takeaways – 25– Mark Scheifele – Winnipeg

Highest Skater GAR (goals above replacement) – 10.1 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton

Lowest Skater GAR – minus 6.0 – Phil Kessel – Arizona

Highest xGAR (expected goals above replacement) – 10.0 – Connor McDavid – Edmonton – (12 – Auston Matthews)

Lowest xGAR – minus 6.0 – Duncan Keith – Chicago (minus 6.4 – Mika Zibanejad)

Highest CF% (min 13 GP) – 61.2 – Nathan MacKinnon – Colorado

Lowest CF% (min 13GP) – 39.3 – Nikko Mikkola – St. Louis (37.6 – Libor Hajek)

Highest PDO (min 13 GP) – 108.9 – Logan Stanley – Winnipeg (110.8 – Cal Foote)

Lowest PDO (min 13 GP) – 91.2 – Noah Gregor – San Jose (89.1 – Colton Sceviour)

Goalie wins – 12 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (15– Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Save percentage (min 9 starts) – 94.2 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas

Quality starts – 12 – Philipp Grubauer – Colorado, Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas,  Jordan Binnington – St. Louis (14 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Quality start % (min 9 starts) – 80.0 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas

Highest Goalie GAR – 15.9  – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas (22.5 – Andrei Vasilevskiy)

Lowest Goalie GAR – minus 4.3 – Martin Jones – San Jose (minus 10 – Thomas Greiss)

Shutouts – 4 – Marc-Andre Fleury – Vegas

I re-visited my top 20 rookie listing and now that we are about 20-25 games into this 56 games NHL season, I think most rookies will have emerged that are going to make their stamp on this season, but you never know as there are 28-35 games still left for most teams.

I will list my top 20 with my prediction in italics and see what their actual role and production has been to date and see how wrong or right I might have been. I'm purely having fun with this and even though I'd like to be correct 100% of the time, I have no problem being wrong.

#20 – Alexander Romanov – Montreal

"He should play 16-18 minutes per game and in a 56-game season might see 15-25 points.'

Romanov has averaged 17:40 after 22 games and has one goal and five points which puts him on pace for about 13 points after 56 games. Pretty close!

#19 – Gregori Denisenko – Florida

"The Panthers won’t taxi squad him should he not make the team, so this a risky pick as it could be all or nothing for 20-25 points in 56 games."

I was correct about it being a risky pick and that Florida wouldn't taxi squad him. Not correct on the points.

 #18 – Jake Oettinger – Dallas

"Khudobin is 34 years old and has never been the 1A in his career, so things could go sideways and Oettinger might get more starts than originally intended this season. 20-25 starts might be a conservative rookie year for Oettinger but that could increase to 30 if Khudobin has any injury or struggles. Oettinger could see 12-18 wins this year."

Oettinger has started 10 of 22 games which is a pace for 25 starts, but he only has three wins which only pro-rates to eight wins on the year. I thought Dallas would be much better.

#17 – Pius Suter – Chicago

"With the ongoing health issues to Jonathan Toews, Chicago will need some skill up front and I think Suter will be on the taxi-squad at the very least and should see an early opportunity in the top six. If Suter can play 50 games, it should translate to 20-25 points."

Playing with Patrick Kane certainly doesn't hurt, but Suter has exceeded expectations and has eight goals and 13 points after 26 games and is on pace for 16 goals and 28 points.

#16 – Quinton Byfield – Los Angeles

"More than likely he will start on the wing in Los Angeles and hopefully transition to center eventually. That position is suddenly looking very strong for the Kings, with Anze Kopitar, Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Turcotte and Byfield in the mix. There is an opportunity on this roster as it stands and he should be good for 50 games, but I would temper my point hopes to around 20-30 this season."

My first true whiff is on Byfield who I figured would make the Kings out of training camp. To be fair, Los Angeles has been much better than I thought and Byfield is better off getting some games in the AHL with Ontario where he has seven points in seven games.

#15 – Kaapo Kahkonen – Minnesota

"Talbot is not a guarantee to repeat his fine play from last season and what is a 70/30 split for Talbot could become 50/50 very early on, which might translate to 20-30 starts for Kahkonen and perhaps 11-17 wins."

Kahkonen has started 13 of 23 games and has posted nine wins already. That translates to 32 starts and 22 wins.

#14 – Nicholas Robertson – Toronto

"It is likely that he is given more time to play at the AHL level this season, but I believe he is too skilled to be left off the team behind the likes of Joe Thornton, Jimmy Vesey, Ilya Mikheyevor Alexander Barabanov as two of these players look to be currently pencilled into the top six. If given the opportunity, Robertson could get 30-40 games and be good for 20-25 points and perhaps 10-15 goals."

This was always going to be a risky take, but things could be different if Robertson wasn't hurt 2:20 into his first and only game of the season. Credit to Thornton, Vesey and Mikheyev all being a little better than I hoped, but Robertson will be in the mix sooner than later.

#13 – Kyle Capobianco – Arizona

"Over the past two AHL seasons, he has played 82 games and has 17 goals and 52 assists, which is something this team is screaming for along with a genuine power-play quarterback. History has taught us that Adam Clendening or Derrick Pouliot AHL productions were not transferable to the NHL, but Capobianco might be worth the gamble for what could be 20-30 points in 56 games."

Capobianco got two games and played about 14 minutes in each and was promptly placed on waivers and went unclaimed. We received our answer that he might be more Clendening and Pouliot. Whiff.

#12 – Jason Robertson – Dallas

"With the long-term injury to Tyler Seguin, this need is even more exposed and should result in Robertson getting a longer look in the top-six. If Robertson can make it and play 56 games he should be able to produce 25-30 points."

Robertson was a healthy scratch earlier in the year but seems to have found a role in the lineup regularly. He has four goals and nine points in 15 games, which has him prorated to play about 38 games with about 23 points. He is coming on lately and could see my projection come true.

#11 – Ty Smith – New Jersey

"He might not be Quinn Hughes, but the 20-year-old 17th overall pick from 2018 is not far off. The options for New Jersey are P.K. Subban and Damon Severson and I get excited about the prospect of Smith with Jack Hughes, Nico Hischier and perhaps Alexander Holtz on this power play for years to come. If he makes the team and plays 56 games we could see 25-30 points."

Smith has impressed in 21 games with two goals and 11 points. This pro-rates to 29 points in 56 games but his game has begun to fall off a little with only three assists in his last 12 games to March 7th.

#10 – Ilya Sorokin – NY Islanders

"He won the KHL Gagarin Cup in 2018-19. At 6’2″ and 176 lbs he is built similar to Ryan Miller of Anaheim and should put some pressure on Semyon Varlamov who played well last season and in the playoffs. Sorokin should get around 30-40 percent of the starts to begin which might translate to 16 to 25 starts and nine to 17 wins. Sorokin could become a 1B goalie by the halfway point of this season and move to 1A by the end of the season or next year."

I was very optimistic and took Varlamov a little lightly as Sorokin struggled early and has played in seven games of the 25 the Islanders have played. This pro-rates to 16 games and nine wins so I'm on track there, just not the part about replacing Varlamov. Sorokin is playing much better as of late and could see more time in the net.

#9 – Barret Hayton – Arizona

"The former 5th overall pick in 2018 played eight games this year in the Finnish Liiga with Ilves and managed four points in eight games so he could be ready this year for a full season at the age of 20. Arizona doesn’t have much depth on the LW and Hayton could see himself move up the lineup if he plays well and might see 25-30 points this year."

Hayton got his chance but struggled to put up the numbers and played 14 games with two goals and three points and rather than put him on the taxi squad they sent him to Tucson in the AHL, where he has no points in six games. I was correct that Lawson Crouse is not the answer at LW, but was a little ahead of Hayton's development.

#8 – Josh Norris – Ottawa

"It doesn’t make sense if this team wants to spark its offence to have Derek Stepan or Chris Tierney centering the top line, so expect Norris to get a shot sooner than later. Because of the uncertainty of his role, I could see him getting anywhere from 20-35 points this year, but his ceiling is a little higher than those already ranked."

Norris has five goals and 15 points after 27 games and has done everything asked of him so far this season. He is on pace for 10 goals and 31 points.

#7 – Owen Tippett – Florida

"He appears pencilled in to start with the 3rd or 4th line on the right side for Florida, but any injury or sub-par play from Duclair or Hornqvist will open the door for Tippett to play with the likes of Jonathan Huberdeau or Aleksander Barkov regularly. I believe he can get 25-35 points this season over 56 games. "

I did not see Carter Verhaeghe in the rearview mirror as he has scooped up the role that I had envisioned for Tippett and ran with it. Tippett has managed to get into 15 games and has three points, but is only seeing about 11 minutes per night.

#6 – Gabriel Vilardi – Los Angeles

"His seven points in 10 NHL games last season was impressive but might have been a little inflated for the small sample size. If Vilardi can stay healthy over 56 games he should be able to produce 26-36 points."

Vilardi has remained healthy and that is the most important thing for him and he has managed six goals and 11 points in 23 games. Prorated over 56 games that is 15 goals and 27 points, so on the low end of my prediction.

#5 – Trevor Zegras – Anaheim

"His performance at the WJC shouldn’t make people assume he will instantly be a point-per-game player as a rookie. He played very well last season with Boston University and had 11 goals and 36 points in 33 games but he wasn’t dominant. Temper your expectations a little but if the opportunities are there, he could be good for 26-36 points this year."

I was quite surprised when the Ducks sent Zegras to San Diego in the AHL at the start of the year, but he went down and put up nine points in eight games and played well enough for Anaheim to bring him up where he has played the last six games with one point to show. I was very wrong on this one.

#4 – Tim Stutzle – Ottawa

"He instantly becomes the most skilled forward on the team, but that won’t necessarily translate to guaranteed production at the NHL level. It appears that he will slot in on the 2nd line with Evgeni Dadonov on the other wing and Derek Stepan at center. Because he is still only 18-years old I will put his production between 24-38 points next year, but it will be his attractive ceiling that sells him."

His introduction to the league has been a little bumpy at times, with some turnovers leading to goals but he's also done some things that warrant his hype. He has five goals and 14 points in 24 games which pro-rates to 12 goals and 33 points. I had a very large window here so it was a pretty big dartboard.  

#3 – Alexis Lafreniere – NY Rangers

"I do believe Lafreniere is a small step above where Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were leading into their rookie seasons, but similar issues face Lafreniere for him to outproduce either of those players from their rookie campaigns. Where will he slot in to get the opportunity to play more than 12 minutes a night? Currently, it looks like he will be on the 3rd line behind Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin and could get some second unit power playtime. That makes me hesitant to think that Lafreniere will be the top-scoring rookie this year and to get between 25-40 points he will need some injuries or lacklustre play from those ahead of him right now."

I should have listened to myself a little more and focused on the similar issues that he would face that Kakko and Hughes did last season. But instead, I was intrigued by the potential. He is coming on a little of late and has four goals and seven points after 23 games, good for a pace of 10 goals and 17 points.

#2 – Igor Shesterkin – NY Rangers

" Shesterkin is the real deal and if healthy will dress for 35-40 games this season. The 25-year old won 10 of his 12 starts last season with a 93.1 save percentage but somehow didn’t start in the playoffs in game one. The team is his now and he will get a pretty long leash this year to get this team to the playoffs again. His save percentage will no doubt come down a little, but if he plays even close to his level of last season he should see 20-28 wins this year."

Shesterkin has started 14 of the 23 games but only has six wins to show for it. His save percentage is still very good at 92.1 and he is 6.36 Goals saved above average (GSAA). Prorated he should see 34 starts and 15 wins as things are. I thought the Rangers would be a little better than they've been.

#1 – Kirill Kaprizov – Minnesota

"Unless Kaprizov likes hot dogs as much as Vladimir Krutov, I don’t think people need to fear that he will fall on his face this season with Minnesota. Undoubtedly there will be some adaptation to the league, the culture and the different ice sizes, but Kaprizov is too skilled a player to fail miserably. Add skill and opportunity at the NHL level and it should equal success given enough time and Kaprizov will get 16-18 minutes per game with first unit power play time. I think Kaprizov is good for 35-50 points and that will be enough to put him at the top of my list."

Kaprizov has been as advertised if not more. He has been better than his six goals and 19 points in 22 games and has been playing more than 18 minutes per game. Prorated he is on pace for 15 goals and 48 points.

Thanks for letting me indulge myself in looking back to the start of the season, as sometimes I forget what I've written down by the next week, but I always want to hold myself accountable for any of my takes, good or bad.Thanks for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions, please let me know below and/or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.