Ramblings: Kahkonen; Bjorkstrand; Dach; Power-Play Production – March 9

Michael Clifford

2021-03-09

There were some changes to the Columbus lineup in practice yesterday. The one that caught my eye was Bjorkstrand joining the duo of Roslovic/Laine. Up until the Laine acquisition, Oliver Bjorkstrand was playing 17:52 a night and had eight points and 23 shots in 10 games. Not super elite, but a fine start to the season. Since then, though, he has averaged just 15:36 a night with 10 points in 16 games and 37 shots on goal. The shot rate didn't decline but the point rate did and that's not a surprise. Now that he's with Roslovic/Laine, there's a good chance he gains some even-strength ice time, and that's great news for his value.

Here are the lines:

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It might be a small thing, but Kirby Dach is travelling and skating with the Blackhawks on their current road trip. He isn't playing, but he is slowly being reintegrated with the team and that is a good step forward. Perhaps he can come back sometime in April and that would get him ready for a potential postseason run.

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It appears that Marcus Johansson and Ryan Hartman are on the verge of returning, even if they weren't in the lineup on Monday night. They aren't huge names for the Wild but this team doesn't have a lot of depth when injuries hit so getting these guys back really helps fill out the lineup.

Hartman had been off to a nice start this year with three goals and nine points in 19 games playing largely in the bottom-6. It really seems as if he's rejuvenated his career.

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Staying with the Wild for a minute, let's talk about Kaapo Kahkonen's season.

Going into Monday night's start, he was sitting with a .918 save percentage on the season at all strengths. In recent seasons, that may not have been great, but this year's league average save percentage is .907, the lowest since 2006-07 (.905). He has been splitting starts with Cam Talbot but has managed nine wins in 12 starts.

By high-danger save percentage, Kahkonen is 10th in the league among 44 goalies with at least 400 minutes of 5-on-5 play. Clearly not a big sample, but a step in the right direction. Some other measures (goals saved above expected) aren't as flattering but that's kind of the point here. It is a small sample, and we have some measures that say good, others that say not as good. For now, it's still an incomplete picture.

One thing I will say is there are often concerns about goalies falling flat in their debut season, even if Kahkonen did have NHL games before this year, and those concerns are gone. At the least, he looks like a competent NHL goalie and that's another step in the right direction.

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Updates from Colorado:

It seems MacKinnon is the closest to returning at the moment. The team likely isn't too concerned as they can cruise to a playoff spot but staying healthy over the next couple of months will be paramount. They don't want a repeat of the 2020 RTP postseason.

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The Vancouver Canucks sit at 28 games played (29 including Monday night) and that means they're halfway through the regular season. Other teams are at varying games-played marks because of all the COVID postponements but we're more or less at the halfway point of the season. Time flies, doesn't it?

I want to go through some stats from the last month. The reason for that is something Brad Marchand said earlier in the season (I wish I could find the quote, but I can't at the moment.). Basically, he thought older teams like Boston and Washington could take some time to get their legs under them with the lack of a proper training camp and exhibition games. Throw in all the postponements that had teams stopping and starting their season more than once at times and it's easy to see why the first month of the season was a very uneven one.

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So what's happened since? Well, here are some important stats to know from the last month and what they can tell us about the future.

The Pittsburgh Power Play

Something that has gone very under-noticed is just how bad Pittsburgh's power play has been since the departure of Phil Kessel. From the start of the 2019-20 season through February 8th, they were 11th by expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-4 and 21st by actual goals per 60 minutes. Over the last month, though, they're first in expected goals per 60 minutes and 13 by actual goals. It has been a significant improvement and one that has brought some value back to their top performers.

The question is where this persists because we have 80 or so games of being bad-to-awful and only 13 games of them being somewhere around the top-10 in the league. Generally speaking, we want to use the bigger sample. I just want to point out that there is a trend in the right direction and we shouldn't be surprised if it persists given the talent level there.

If the Penguins can maintain this goal-scoring on the power play, this changes the outlook for their bigger fantasy stars for the balance of the season as opposed to having a bottom-10 PP.

The Dallas Stars Power Play

Through the first few weeks of Dallas's season, the power play carried their production. I even wrote back on February 23rd about how Joe Pavelski's production, in particular, was the product of a PP gone haywire and nothing more. He has six points in seven games since then, which is good, but is a far cry from the 17 points in 13 games he started the season with.

You are not going to believe this, but the Dallas Stars don't have one of the best power plays in modern history. Rather, over the last month, this team is 26th by expected goals with a man advantage and 29th by actual goals. They have had their injuries, to be sure, but teams like the Flyers and Wild have top-10 power plays by expected goals over the last month and have had the same problems that the Stars have had. At some point, we can't blame injuries.

Do things change if/when Alex Radulov and Tyler Seguin return? Probably, but to go from a bottom-5 power play to one that is elite would be a big change. Just any improvement would be welcome, but for the near-term, expect more of the same from Dallas.

Vegas's five-on-five play

For years now, the Golden Knights have been one of the best teams in the league at 5-on-5. In fact, in their first three years of existence, the team was second in the league in expected goal share and ninth by actual goal share. Both numbers good enough to be a Cup contender, which they were.

It has not been the same this season. On the year, they sit 11th by expected goals in the league and that's with three teams in their division (Arizona, Anaheim, Los Angeles) in the bottom-6 by the same measure. Over the last month? That is down to 22nd by expected goal share, though their actual goal share is close to top-10 because Marc-Andre Fleury has a .950 save percentage over his last 10 starts. If that's a .900 or .910 save percentage, we're probably having conversations about what's wrong with Vegas.

We need to be fair to Vegas here. Since February 8th, they have played 12 games and half of them have been against Colorado or Minnesota, two of the better teams in their division. But at the same time, if they're putting up poor underlying metrics against the better teams in their division (they were 46.3 percent in four games against Colorado in this stretch), it probably shows where they stand among the elite.

I am still a firm believer that Vegas is a good team but they're starting to show reasons why they may not be among the Tampa Bays of the league.

Los Angeles's five-on-five play

Hey remember when I said a few paragraphs earlier that Los Angeles was one of the worst teams in the league through the early parts of the season? That was true: from January 13th through February 7th, the Kings were a distant last in the league with a 39.1 expected goal share and were 28th by goal share at 40.5 percent. Just abysmal play.

Things have changed, though. Over the last month, the team is sitting with a 50.4 expected goal share, 14th in the league, and ahead of teams like St. Louis, Vegas, and Edmonton. And it's translating to wins! They have a 59.4 percent expected goal share and are 7-2-3 in that stretch. Great goaltending is the reason why but at least they're not a doormat anymore.

It may not be enough for a playoff entry but the Kings are only two points behind Minnesota as of Monday afternoon. The duo of VIlardi-Carter has looked good, their goaltenders have been solid, and Anze Kopitar continues to be great. With the prospect depth they have, it's a good sign for the future.

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