Capped: Deadline targets for the blue line
Logan Doyle
2021-03-11
Following the theme of last week, we're going to continue to look at some trade deadline targets. This week we'll focus on defencemen and goalies.
You may have noticed a trend with my selections last week. First, I like to nibble on the edges of my rosters and add to my core rather than always shake things up. Second: buy low, buy low, buy low. Find underperforming players that have upside and solid history that increases their potential to revert to career norms by seasons end. It will save you assets in the long run.
So let's dive right in.
Tyson Barrie – Edmonton Oilers ($3.75M) – It is hard to believe a 55-point, 82-game pace defenceman could be overshadowed, but he is. Darnell Nurse is stealing the spotlight in Edmonton. If you're looking for a point producing defenceman though, Barrie fits the bill. Somehow, I think fans and fantasy poolies expected more from Barrie than this. After the debacle in Toronto (that would make a good headline somewhere) last year, a return to Colorado level scoring should be rejoiced and welcomed with open arms.. He's also pointless in his last four games and with Darnell Nurse getting first-unit power play dibs owners aren't quite so attached to Barrie.
In points pools he might be the cheapest 50-point defenceman around to acquire. In multi-cat pools, you would need to be desperately in need of a point producing defenceman to target Barrie because he's going to leave your hits and blocks categories barren. If your league gives bonus scoring to defencemen, then Barrie becomes more attractive.
I seem to be throwing out a lot of warnings on Barrie and you're kind of right. Some will see these signs as warnings signs and want to stay away. Myself, I see these signs as potential to scoop a player a bit cheaper than I should be able to. It wouldn't take much for that 55-point pace to turn into a 65-point pace. At $3.75M he is producing more than what you need to justify rostering this contract. His next deal is going to be interesting, but I'll save that discussion for a later date.
To be blunt, Barrie is a peripheral wasteland. You have been warned. You own him for points and only points in all formats. He's on a one-year deal and no signs yet Edmonton will re-sign him. All this leads to the potential of being able to acquire Barrie at a reasonable price.
MacKenzie Weegar – Florida Panthers ($3.2M) – With 11 points in 24 games he's not the next coming of Erik Karlsson but it's more points than Shea Weber. Yet, if you're in a 12-team league that starts six defencemen Weegar is middle of the pack production. He currently sits 36th in points for NHL defensemen. If you're starting 6 per team in a 12-team league he is literally middle of the pack. Six of his 11 points have come in the last ten games as well.
He logs big minutes skating on the top pair with Aaron Ekblad but gets zero power-play exposure. He needs an injury to Ekblad to get a sniff at either power play (I won't mention Keith Yandle because he never gets hurt). Weegar won't help power-play point; you'll need to look elsewhere. Even without the power play he finds himself on a solid 37-point pace.
Multi-cat pools are really where Weegar adds value. On pace for 147 shots, 205 hits and 96 blocks (82-game pace), Weegar provides real solid multi-cat value. His block pace is significantly lower than his previous two seasons. There may be some quiet block upside down the stretch. Considering he is only owned in 33 percent of Fantrax pools and 22 percent of Yahoo! Pools, I would check free agency first.
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets ($5M) – It was a bit of a toss-up at first glance in deciding which Blue Jackets defensemen to choose here, Werenski or Seth Jones. The tiebreaker went to who has had the worse season to date. Since Jones is now up to 13-points in 26 games, closer to his career average, the frustration of owning Jones is starting to subside. Werenski it is.
One goal, six assists in 19 games. Yikes! It is not good. In fact, it is a 30-point pace. By far the worst of Werenski's career. There are rumblings of turmoil and this or that in Columbus and perhaps this is affecting Werenski. Or there are some lingering affects to the lower body injury that resulted in him missing several games in February. Most likely though, it's due to bad luck. To date, Werenski is shooting just 2.2 percent. With a career shooting percentage of 7.5 percent Werenski should have three more goals. Goals are hard to come by in Columbus. This one I'm placing faith in the 'Hockey Gods' that averages will work out. That will put Werenski in line for an attractive second half.
Ryan Pulock, New York Islanders, ($5M) – This lethargic season can't continue can it? It hasn't been a great season for Pulock to date with 10 assists in 26 games and no goals. This puts him on a 33-point pace. For a defenseman that has been averaging a half-point per game over the last three seasons, this is a bit of a let down. The zero goals is the largest eye-opener. Pulock is known to have a good point shot. His shooting percentage over the last three seasons was 5.6, 5.0 and 6.1 and should have at least 3 goals on the year. Goals have been hard to come by for most of the season for the entire team. At the same time though, Pulock has demonstrated over the last three seasons he has more to give.
In a multi-cat pools, Pulock has held steady peripheral value even in the absence of offense. He is on pace for career average of hits and blocks, around 130 each and averaging two shots on goal per game. Say what you want about the impact of Dobson but Pulock is still averaging a career high in power play time on ice per game at 2:12. Nick Leddy finding a third life is a larger impact on Pulock's production than Dobson. If you're in a keeper league the bonus is his age. He is a good long-term acquisition. His cap might be slightly high based on his current production at $5M but on the flip side
He's only three points from being on a .5 point per game pace, his career norm, yet he has been such a slow burn this year that owners (myself included) have grown frustrated. Food for thought if you're a deadline buyer.
Jani Hakanpaa – Anaheim Ducks ($775K) – This is for multi-cat owners desperate for cheap hits. Hakanpaa delivers! He's averaging four per game on the season but has really ramped it up the past ten with 55 hits; he also has 43 blocks on the year. There's no offence to speak of with only one assist to date and less than a shot on goal per game. To give your peripherals a real boost it doesn't get much better than $775k.
Goalies are hard to acquire year. Cancelled game concerns are forcing owners to hold goalies close to their chest. Here's three cheap options you might not have to break the bank to get:
Tristan Jarry, Pittsburgh ($3.5M) – As good as Jarry has been lately, the stain of his first seven games is still wearing on some Jarry owners. In his first seven games he went 2-4-1, 3.95, and .857. He followed this up with a real solid 8-3, 2.54, .921 over his last 11 games. Yet the first quarter looms over his head and questions of whether he can shoulder a number one job abound.
Where there is doubt there is opportunity. At 3.5M he might be worth the price you have to pay to secure your net for a playoff run. Under contract for two more seasons, he should help secure your net for the long term.
Brian Elliott, Philadelphia Flyers ($1.5M) – This one might be a bit controversial in that you're likely thinking Carter Hart, Carter Hart. Well, Carter Hart hasn't been very good to date whereas Brian Elliott has been above average. If Hart continues to struggle much longer Alain Vigneault is going to have little option but to begin riding Elliott more and more.
Combine Elliott's age with Hart having been anointed the goalie of the future he should be relatively cheap to acquire. If the Hart owner has smartly acquired Elliott for the handcuffs this option becomes much more difficult to acquire. He's an insurance policy for both the Flyers and fantasy owners.
Mike Smith, Edmonton Oilers, ($1.5M) – The only thing riskier than an Oilers goalie is a Sharks goalie (which is why I'm not suggesting Sharks goalie). Even so, Smith has been on a legit roll since returning from injury. He's sporting a nifty 8-2 record, a .926 save percentage and a 2.21 goals against average. If you hide the name you would take those numbers every night of the week.
If the Smith owner is out of a playoff spot he should be looking to sell high. If you're making a run you should be looking to buy. I know this goes against my intro saying 'buy low.' In fantasy sports there's going to be exceptions to every rule. Smith is also as old as Jagr (not really, but can we turn 'Old as Jagr' into a thing? ). At 38, Smith's age is going to keep the asking price down.
Hopefully you've found a few of these players helpful for your upcoming run. Good luck and may the pucks bounce your way. Until next week.
(all stats from FrozenTools, all salaries from capfriendly)
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