Ramblings: Midseason Guide Here, Kirill Hat Trick, McDavid Keeps Rolling, One-Year Anniversary of the Pause (Mar 13)
Ian Gooding
2021-03-13
The Midseason Guide is now available for download! You'll find the usual team-by-team breakdowns and projections, which now also include a spreadsheet for easy comparisons and calculations for your adds, drops, and trades. You'll also find a scheduling breakdown for the stretch run, as well as prospect information if you're planning for next season. If you haven't purchased yours, you can get it right here.
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Nikita Kucherov has started skating this week and is targeting a return in time for the playoffs, according to The Athletic's Joe Smith. This is kind of what I thought would happen with Kucherov all along. They know they can win a Stanley Cup without an elite scorer, having been without Steven Stamkos for almost all of the bubble playoff run. Putting Kucherov on LTIR was an out-of-the-box solution to their cap problems, which they won't have to worry about since there's no salary cap in the playoffs. Without Kucherov, the Bolts still had great odds to make the Central Division playoffs and even win the division, which holds true given their current place in the standings. With a well-rested Kucherov, the Bolts are in a great spot to repeat as Stanley Cup champions. Yes, Kucherov would be a high playoff pool pick as well.
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In a trade that doesn't have significant immediate fantasy implications, the Leafs have acquired goalie Veini Vehvilainen from the Blue Jackets for defenseman Mikko Lehtonen. It's a cross-border trade, so both players will need to complete the necessary quarantine period.
The Leafs have been chasing goaltending depth all season, so could there be something wrong with Jack Campbell beyond day-to-day? Vehvilainen was backing up Joonas Korpisalo while Elvis Merzlikins was injured. With the Leafs, he is no higher than a third goalie under ideal circumstances and probably a fourth goalie with Michael Hutchinson putting up decent numbers. With Campbell injured, he's likely the #3 at the moment.
It's fair to say Lehtonen didn't get much of a shot with the Leafs, even though he had the second-highest power-play time (1:26 PPTOI, 27.4 %PP) among Leafs defenders in his nine games. He is expected to join the Blue Jackets taxi squad once he clears quarantine. John Tortorella doesn't seem too happy with his defense (along with a lot of other things concerning the Blue Jackets), so it's worth it for them to give Lehtonen a try.
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Anders Lee is expected to be out indefinitely with a lower-body injury from Thursday's game. This wasn't welcome news for his fantasy owners, as Lee recorded nine points over his last ten games and was overall having a nice season (12 goals and 19 points in 27 games). Lee has been a solid multicategory contributor in the past, and this season has been no different. Even under a "defensive Barry Trotz" system, Lee has taken 3.0 SOG/GP, his highest total since his rookie season of 2013-14. He's also a plus-11, which is helped by playing for an Islanders team that is at the top of a very competitive East Division.
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There was an unexpected "false positive" turn for the Golden Knights, as Marc-Andre Fleury was removed from the COVID protocol list and started on Friday. Robin Lehner is not in St. Louis with the team, so I made the pre-emptive move to add Logan Thompson for a start that wasn't to be. This season continues to give us more twists and turns than we normally see. As it turned out, this wasn't the best game to start Fleury ratios-wise (four goals on 23 shots), but he held on for a 5-4 overtime win.
With Alex Pietrangelo out indefinitely with a lower-body injury, Dylan Coghlan appears to be more than just a one-off. Coghlan followed up an out-of-nowhere hat trick on Wednesday with an assist on Friday. He's also worth mentioning because he received second-unit power-play time. The Vegas PP2 features stronger options than that of most teams, so Coghlan might be worth an add in deeper leagues.
Vladimir Tarasenko scored a goal and added an assist, giving him three points in the three games since his return. And yes, he's back on the first-unit power play.
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Has there been one new player that has energized a team more than Kirill Kaprizov has with the Wild? Kaprizov recorded his first career hat trick, leading the Wild to yet another win. In fact, he stuffed your categories on Friday, posting a plus-4 ranking to go with eight shots on goal. He's been worth the wait if you got on board well before he left the KHL. More highlight-reel stuff below.
Not to be outdone by Kaapo Kahkonen's hot run, Cam Talbot posted a 25-save shutout. If Talbot has been dropped in your league (owned in less than half of Yahoo leagues), I'd make a point to add him. As I mentioned in the Midseason Guide, both Wild goalies are worth owning at the moment.
It wasn't all good for the Wild, though. Marcus Foligno left the game after taking a shot off his shin. He'd been a must-start in my hits league recently, as he had recorded 11 points over his last 10 games in addition to his usual 2.5 hits/game.
Adin Hill started for the Yotes, allowing three goals on 31 shots. With Darcy Kuemper "week to week", Hill could sneak into the goaltending situation. I've had faith in Antti Raanta in past seasons, but I've seen him suffer through additional injury stoppages this season to go with a very high (3.53) goals-against average. With Raanta a perpetual Band-Aid Boy, Hill could receive a real opportunity after some short stints the past two seasons.
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I picked the wrong week to face Connor McDavid. Well, there's never really a right week. You just look at the boxscore when he plays and mutter "what's the damage?" On Friday, it was a goal and two assists, just like it was on Wednesday. The Senators held McDavid to "just" two assists on Monday, which gives him eight points (2 G, 6 A) in three games versus Ottawa this week. Add his three points against Calgary last Saturday and he's got 11 points over his last four games. He's the number one player in the Top 100 Roto Rankings, and it looks like that won't change when I release the March rankings in a few days. McDavid is also the first player to reach the 50-point mark this season.
Leon Draisaitl followed up his five-point game on Wednesday with another goal and assist on Friday. That gives him his own five-game point streak with 10 points over that span. The game plan to shutting down the Oilers should mostly revolve around focusing on McDavid and Draisaitl.
Tyson Barrie seems like a great fit in Edmonton, adding to his total with a goal and power-play assist on Friday. Too bad he's only signed for one season. Mike nailed it on his fantasy take on this one.
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Philipp Grubauer had a relatively easy 18-save shutout against the Kings on Friday. Look at the shot total he's faced over the last three games: 18, 14, and 14. In case you're wondering, he faced the Coyotes in his previous two games. These low shot totals can lead to tidy goals-against average numbers, but they can just as easily ruin your save percentage. Fantasy owners shouldn't complain about Grubauer's season numbers (1.95 GAA, .920 SV%, 66.7 QS%, 4 SO). His 13 quality starts also ties him for the league lead in that category.
The more amazing goalie performance in this game, however, was that of Cal Petersen. Cleared from COVID protocol hours before this game, Petersen stopped all but one of the 45 shots he faced in a game that was clearly tilted to one side. I'll admit I didn't have faith in Petersen in this one in leaving him on my bench. A recent run of poor play (4.14 GAA, .854 SV% over his previous three starts) was one thing; facing the Avalanche in Denver was another. Now that Jonathan Quick is on IR, Petersen might get a little run as the starter.
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A shutout from a San Jose Sharks goalie? Yes, it's true. Devan Dubnyk stopped 34 Anaheim shots in posting the first shutout from any Sharks goalie this season. Dubnyk has also posted back-to-back quality starts. I don't know if I'm rushing out to add Dubnyk yet, but there's talk that he could face the Ducks again in the back-to-back rematch on Saturday. Maybe if you're in a pinch? The Ducks are a low-scoring team, for what it's worth.
Kevin Labanc led the Sharks with three points (1 G, 2 A). After a slow start, Labanc has been hot recently with ten points (4 G, 6 A) over his last nine games. Lining up with Evander Kane and Logan Couture on the top line doesn't hurt, either.
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Somebody recently asked me about Connor Bedard's potential fantasy value. Usually I leave the prospect analysis for the good folks at Dobber Prospects, but I'll post this anyway: his first career WHL goal in his Regina Pats debut.
In case you don't know who Bedard is, he was the first player ever granted underage exceptional status in WHL history. The 15-year-old Bedard scored twice in this game while taking seven shots and winning 10 of 14 faceoffs. Looks like he belongs. He’s still a (relatively) long way away from the draft, but at this point the West Vancouver product appears to have the NHL in his future.
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Finally, I just want to take the time to acknowledge that March 12 (the day I am writing this, not the day that you are probably reading this) was the one-year anniversary of the NHL season being put on pause. You may remember our Fantasy Impact article on the scenarios of what might happen and how your fantasy league could handle things. It's funny how we were told at the time "two weeks" and then we would go from there. Even the most optimistic folks knew that we'd be in for a much longer shutdown than that.
As I reflect back on the last year, I can't begin to tell you how much the return-to-play bubble playoffs during the summer seemed like a reprieve from the months of no sports. I'll admit – in my many years, it was my first time listening to an NHL game on the radio while on a camping trip! The return to play was an unusual situation, and we can endlessly debate how fair it was for everyone, or even if it should have been played at all. But the bottom line is that NHL hockey was back.
As long offseason periods drag on, it gets harder and harder to find interesting topics to write about in the Ramblings. So I thank you, the readers, for continuing to support the site and us. It's easy to check out on hockey while it's not front of mind.
Now that the vaccine is being distributed, more teams are allowing fans to trickle into their arenas. A world with the buzz of packed stadiums no longer seems out of reach. We're not out of the woods yet, so please continue to follow the regulations of your local health authorities. I know this hasn't been easy, but please do the right thing and hang in there a bit longer.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding