Eastern Edge: Fantasy MVPs through the first half

Brennan Des

2021-03-16

The 2021 Dobber Hockey Midseason Guide is now available! It has all the information you need to make a run for your league's title, including first-half analysis, second-half projections, and prospect coverage to prepare you for the future.  It's hard to keep up with everything going on across the league with this year's condensed schedule, but the guide certainly helps me stay on top of things!

In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at the midseason fantasy MVP from each team. When I think about value in fantasy hockey, I think about players who have outperformed expectations. So, this isn't just a list of each team's best player or leading scorer, it's a list of players whose contributions outweigh their preseason acquisition cost.

Boston BruinsCharlie McAvoy

The Perfection Line has been productive this season, with David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand all scoring near or above a point-per-game pace. However, we've come to expect offensive excellence from the trio, so I wouldn't say their current value significantly surpasses preseason projections. In contrast, Charlie McAvoy has provided a surprisingly high level of offense. He has 17 points through 26 appearances – which translates to a 54-point-pace in your typical 82-game season. McAvoy has been especially valuable in leagues that track blocked shots, sitting in the top-20 for that category.

Buffalo SabresLinus Ullmark

To say Buffalo has struggled this season would be an understatement. The Sabres sit dead last in the league standings, having won just six of their 27 games. Despite his team's struggles, Ullmark has managed a 5-4-2 record, posting a 2.44 GAA and 9.19 save percentage in the process. Injuries may have limited the impact he's had on your fantasy roster, but I have a hard time giving an MVP title to any of Buffalo's skaters when the team has the league's worst offense.

Carolina HurricanesJordan Staal

After scoring at a 33-point pace last year, expectations for Staal were low heading into the season and he wasn't drafted in most fantasy leagues. As such, it's all the more impressive to see he has 10 goals and 12 assists through 25 games this year. He's contributed to a variety of categories, sitting eighth in the league with 301 face off wins while posting significant power-play point and hit totals. I could make a similar case for Vincent Trocheck as Carolina's fantasy MVP, but he was on the radar more than Staal – whose production came out of nowhere.  Honourable mention to goaltender Alex Nedeljkovic who sports a 6-2-1 record alongside a 2.08 GAA and .929 save percentage.

Columbus Blue Jackets Jack Roslovic

It's been a disappointing season for many of Columbus' fantasy-relevant players. Given the Blue Jackets' reputation for strong defense, the team's netminders were highly sought after heading into the season. However, both Joonas Korpisalo and Elvis Merzlikins have lost more games than they've won, sporting GAAs above 3.00. We've seen modest offensive output from a few of the team's skaters, but Jack Roslovic has produced at the most impressive rate with 19 points in 23 games. He's skating 17 minutes a night and seeing a 53-percent share of the team's total power-play time, enjoying a much more prominent role in Columbus than he ever saw in Winnipeg.

Detroit Red Wings – Jonathan Bernier   

Detroit's offense has not been good this year, managing just 2.21 goals per game. Dylan Larkin and Anthony Mantha have underperformed significantly, scoring 0.5 points per outing. The lone bright spot has been Jonathan Bernier who somehow sports a winning record of 7-6-0 despite the team's overall record of 8-17-4. The 32-year-old netminder has also managed an impressive .912 save percentage so far this year.

Florida Panthers Aaron Ekblad

The Panthers have enjoyed an excellent first half, sitting atop the league standings with a 19-5-4 record. We've seen a number of compelling storylines along the way, including Sergei Bobrovsky's bounceback performance, Jonathan Huberdeau and Aleksander Barkov's continued dominance, as well as surprising offense from Patric Hornqvist and Carter Verhaeghe. While many different players deserve to be called Florida's midseason fantasy MVP, I've been most impressed by Aaron Ekblad. He's thrived in an increased role this year, posting 10 goals and 10 assists through 28 games. Among defenseman, Ekblad sits second in goal-scoring, fifth in shot totals and eighth in power-play points. It's been an impressive showing from a player who has produced at a much more modest rate up to this point in his career.   

Montreal CanadiensJeff Petry

I don't think I need to spend too much time justifying this choice as Petry's strong first half has been well documented. He leads Montreal in scoring with 26 points in 28 games – a total which ranks second among all defensemen. He leads the league's blueliners with 11 goals and has made significant contributions to the hits, shots and power-play point categories. While you could make an argument that Tyler Toffoli is Montreal's midseason fantasy MVP, I give the edge to Petry because high-scoring defenseman are more rare than high-scoring wingers in fantasy leagues.

New Jersey DevilsPavel Zacha

Mackenzie Blackwood's early season success received a lot of attention, so I fully expected to give this title to him. However, Blackwood's overall numbers include a 3.12 GAA and .900 save percentage – a far cry from the 1.90 GAA and .948 save percentage he posted in his first three appearances. In Blackwood's defense, he was sidelined for a month due to COVID-19, and his struggles since returning have also been a product of poor play in front of him. Seeing as Pavel Zacha leads the team with 17 points in 25 games, I think he deserves the team MVP title. He wasn't selected in most fantasy drafts and is currently rostered in just 16-percent of leagues – so it's fair to say he's provided more value than we expected.

New York IslandersSemyon Varlamov

I don't think there's too much debate here as Varlamov has been one of the most valuable fantasy goalies, sporting a 13-4-3 record, alongside a 2.03 GAA and .929 save percentage. While Mathew Barzal has been good offensively, none of New York's forward point totals come close to the level of production we've seen across the league. Defenseman Nick Leddy deserves an honourable mention for posting 18 points through 29 games.

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New York RangersPavel Buchnevich

With 22 points in 26 games, Buchnevich shares the team lead in scoring with Artemi Panarin.

He's seeing a greater role with the team this season, skating 19 minutes a night – which represents a two-minute increase from last year's average. His offensive production has improved between the first and second quarter. After posting eight points in his first 13 appearances, Buchnevich has managed 14 points in his last 13 outings. That is impressive production from a player that wasn't even drafted in most fantasy leagues.

Ottawa SenatorsDrake Batherson

Through the first half of the 2021 campaign, we've seen strong multicategory contributions from Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot. However, those guys have already established their fantasy value over the past few years. As such, there probably isn't a huge discrepancy between their current production and what you expected from them heading into the season. In contrast, Drake Batherson wasn't drafted in most fantasy leagues, so his present value far exceeds his preseason value. Batherson leads the team with 10 power-play points – a miracle given Ottawa's struggled with the man advantage. He's improved over the course of the season, posting eight goals and five assists in his last 14 games – after opening the year with six points in his first 16 outings. 

Philadelphia FlyersJames van Riemsdyk

JVR saw a reduced role last year as he skated 15 minutes a night and scored at a modest 50-point pace. Given the youth movement in Philadelphia, most expected him to see a similarly reduced role this year, which would inevitably lead to underwhelming production. These conclusions are supported by the fact that van Riemsdyk was drafted in just five percent of Yahoo leagues. He's shattered our expectations with 29 points through 26 games, reclaiming a larger role with the team as he skates 17 minutes a night. He comfortably leads the team in scoring and only four players across the league have bested his seven power-play goals thus far. Honourable mention goes to sophomore sensation Joel Farabee, who has 24 points through 25 appearances.

Pittsburgh PenguinsKris Letang

In Pittsburgh, we've seen solid performances from the team's superstars. However, you probably needed a first-round pick to acquire Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel, or Evgeni Malkin in your fantasy drafts. As such, their current production doesn't really outweigh their high acquisition costs. In contrast, Kris Letang could have been taken later on in most drafts, so his 20 points in 27 games represent a bit of extra value. He started slow with three points in his first nine appearances, but has 17 points in his last 18 games.

Tampa Bay LightningOndrej Palat

It feels criminal not to give this title to Andrei Vasilevskiy – who has won 17 of his 21 games, posting a 1.85 GAA and .934 save percentage in the process. Although Vasilevskiy has been outstanding, we had extremely high expectations for him heading into the season. He was the first goalie off the board in most drafts, and with such a high cost, his amazing performance doesn't drastically exceed the value you expected from him. In contrast, Ondrej Palat was drafted outside the top-150 in the average Yahoo league. He's thoroughly outperformed expectations with 26 points through 27 games. 15 of those points came with the man advantage as only four players in the league have more power-play points than Palat.  

Toronto Maple LeafsAuston Matthews

You could certainly make a case that Mitch Marner is Toronto's fantasy MVP, as he sits fourth in league scoring with 39 points in 30 games. However, given the fact that goals tend to me more valuable than assists in most fantasy formats, it's hard to ignore that Matthews leads the league with 21 goals through 27 games. There's a significant gap between him and the rest of the field as Tyler Toffoli, Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl share second place with 17 goals each.

Washington CapitalsNicklas Backstrom

The 33-year-old center leads the team in scoring by a wide margin, tallying 31 points through 28 appearances. With the abundance of talent at center ice, Backstrom was selected outside of the top-100 in your average Yahoo league. As I write this, only 11 players in the NHL have more points than Backstrom, so it's fair to say he's outperformed expectations. Considering he's typically known for his playmaking ability, his 11 goals on the season have been a pleasant surprise.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JJ PETERKA BUF
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
MIRO HEISKANEN DAL
BRYAN RUST PIT
LUKE HUGHES N.J

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  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
JUUSE SAROS NSH
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency COL Players
22.0 VALERI NICHUSHKIN NATHAN MACKINNON ARTTURI LEHKONEN
16.9 LOGAN O'CONNOR JOEL KIVIRANTA PARKER KELLY
16.6 MIKKO RANTANEN CASEY MITTELSTADT ROSS COLTON

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