Ramblings: Marchand’s Longevity; Ovechkin Keeps Scoring; Rookie Goalies Everywhere
Alexander MacLean
2021-03-17
Some heartbreaking news from the hockey community yesterday:
Rest in peace Timur. Sincerest condolences to your family.
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Sticking with Evgeni Malkin, the superstar centre left the game in the first period with an apparent injury. It could be a knee issue based on his hard contact with Jared Tinordi, or maybe a hip issue after landing hard on it as a result of the same hit. He returned for one powerplay shift later in the first, but was then gone for the rest of the game.
On the other side of the ice, Dan Vladar played very well, stopping all but one shot in the 2-1 victory. He's pushing his name into the conversation for one of the goalie spots in Boston next year, and he has a great opportunity with both Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak on expiring contracts.
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Noah Dobson is still on the Covid list, so there's still a bit more time to sell him off in one-year leagues before everyone realizes that he isn't on the top powerplay unit anymore.
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Adin Hill is likely in line for a lot of starts due to injuries to both of Antti Raanta, but keep an eye on Ivan Prosvetov too. The Coyotes have a lot to like in their third and fourth goalies. Hill let in a goal early in last night's game, but settled down and looked comfortable through the rest of the game.
Speaking of keeping an eye on things, the Midseason Guide has been released, and there isn't much more time for you to take advantage of all of the great content in it. With only three weeks left until the trade deadline in most leagues, this season is quickly flashing by.
Lawson Crouse had a misconduct last night (and somehow that meant 27 minutes in penalties), so here's an excerpt of what I had to say about him in the guide concerning his peripheral production. The PIMs are a bonus.
- Crouse has racked up over 200 hits each of the last two seasons and is on pace to hit that mark in this shortened 56-game slate as well. Less than two-seasons until that big breakout threshold when the offense catches up.
On the other side, Kaapo Kahkonen posted another shutout, and is the rookie goalie that everyone thinks Kevin Lankinen is. Cam Talbot is going to be a good backup for the next 2.5 years of his contract.
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Taylor Hall took a puck to the face in the first period, because playing in Buffalo wasn't enough.
He returned in the second period though, so crisis averted there. He may be a disappointment thus far, but he's worth holding onto to see if he gets traded somewhere at the deadline, revitalizing him for the end of the season.
We also had a Jeff Skinner sighting! He finished off a two-on-one break for his second goal of the season, also showing some temper and picking a fight with the larger Nathan Bastian leading to coincidental minors. Casey Mittelstadt assisted on the Skinner goal, and was also the top centre on the powerplay today. He might be worth a look in the short term (especially if Eric Staal is traded). It was all for naught though as Buffalo lost their 12th straight game.
Stack roster players that play the Sabres, and your team will score extra points.
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The 32-year-old Brad Marchand just keeps chugging along, with another assist last night. How long can he keep it up though is the question. Players don't typically break out at 28 and hit 100 points for the first time at 30. For him to then become one of the top wingers in the game it's almost unheard of, and even less often do we see this kind of breakout from a cerebral and pesky player who had opportunities and no injury issues earlier in his career. There just isn't a good template to go off of here, but as long as Marchand has prime David Pastrnak on his opposite wing, it's tough to see him dipping too far too fast.
Joe Pavelski is one player that I have as a bit of a comparable in my head as he broke out in his age 29 season and both have a nose for the net. Although, Pavelski never hit the same highs as Marchand, and was only a 70-point player through his prime. Pavelski fell off last season in his first year with Dallas, and that age 35 season might be when we see the first real step down from Marchand too. However, Pavelski is currently on pace for a career season, boosted by some good luck and a system that is allowing him to shoot the puck a lot more. We may see a few up and down seasons from Marchand through his 30s, so make a note to future you not to write off Marchand at the first signs of decline.
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Perhaps not a big thing to note for smaller leagues, but for deeper leagues and dynasties, here's a name to keep an eye on.
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In the battle of the brothers, Evgeny Svechnikov and Marc Staal surprisingly got the better of their more highly regarded siblings. The Red Wings' defenceman was the only one of the four to notch a point in the game. Up on forward, the older Svechnikov may actually be worth a look in some deeper leagues with four points through five games, though most of his peripheral production is stacked in his first two games.
Jonathan Bernier held the wings in a game that they did not deserve to be close to winning, and he may be playing himself out of town as a result. He's a free agent at the end of the season, and his $3 million cap hit is manageable for most teams, especially if Detroit were to retain some of it to optimize the return.
Filip Hronek expanded his lead as the highest scoring Red Wing, and potted his first goal of the year as well. However, he has still not put one past an actual goalie this season, notching last night's tally on an empty Carolina net.
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A night after Alex Ovechkin notched his 717th goal, he picked up a secondary assist on T.J. Oshie's second period goal to reach the 1300-point plateau, becoming the 35thplayer in NHL history to hit that mark. Later in that same period he scored goal number 718, passing Phil Esposito for sixth all-time (and also extending his goal scoring streak to four games). We truly are watching one of the best players to play the game. I don't currently own him in any leagues, but honestly, I'm just happy to see him play.
If you do own him, you're likely best off holding him as you won't get anywhere near what he's worth in return, and the fear of him leaving for Russia in the summer will scare other suitors off – I think he stays for another couple years at least.
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Jake Oettinger started his third game in four nights. He faced 18 shots in the first period alone and stopped all but one of them. He has looked every part the young starter that the Stars hoped he could be when they used a first round pick on him back in 2017.
The 22-year-old netminder has another year left on his entry-level deal, but with both Anton Khudobin and Ben Bishop signed through to 2023, the path to future starts isn't clear. However, with Bishop coming off of hip surgery, Khudobin not putting up much of a fight right now, and the Seattle draft coming up as well (more on that later), it might be sooner than you think that Oettinger takes over for good.
Dallas wore their white outfits, and I am not a fan. Who thought this was a good idea?
There were a couple of instances where the Stars passed to open areas of the ice, or got confused with line changes. Methinks the jerseys may have played a small part in that. I won't be putting money on Dallas in the games in the future when Dallas wears these jerseys again.
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There was some fire wagon hockey being played in Colorado last night. It wasn't just goals either, there were chances, breakaways, and posts galore! We'll blame it on the backup goalies with Hunter Miska going up against Ryan Miller (who started because John Gibson was sitting due to a lower body injury). The Avalanche can't be comfortable entering the playoffs with Miska as their backup goalie, especially after watching all of their goalies get injured in last year's bubble competition. Pavel Francouz has been out all season, and there hasn't been any real update on his progress. Perhaps the Avalanche check in on Khudobin once Bishop returns, or maybe they look to Bernier who I mentioned earlier would likely be on the move.Â
The Avalanche are already down a few defencemen, and lost Greg Pateryn to an injury early when he took a puck up high and ran straight down the tunnel – he returned later in the game though, and appears to be okay. That could have been an opportunity for Conor Timmins to draw back into the lineup. He's a skilled defenceman who just needs a real opportunity, but likely won't get enough time in Colorado. He would make a great trade chip at the deadline, assuming they don't need him to fill out their roster.
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I wanted to dive into the Seattle Kraken and the impact they are going to have on the fantasy landscape, because it's never too early to look ahead to these things and make sure they're on our radar. There are three main impacts that I see, and I'll take a crack at each.
Follow the Money:
For cap leagues, if your league's cap ceiling isn't rising, then things are going to get a lot tighter. We can assume that Seattle won't get themselves into cap trouble in year one, but they may take a bad contract or two for the right incentive, and as a result we can probably pencil them in to spend about $75 million. That's an extra $75 million that will go straight to your free agent pile in your fantasy leagues, because most teams run as tight to the cap as they can manage. That means that even more than a typical summer, you need to be looking to shed cap, and being smart with your money. Every dollar you save gives you more options than in a usual offseason to put to better use.
Outside of Seattle, every team will suddenly have one more contract to sign, and maybe a little more cap space in which to sign that player. With a large crop of free agents set to hit the field this summer, beware the free agents getting overpaid a little (in spite of the flat cap).
Extra Roster Players:
Playing off the last section, that extra salary gets spread across a full roster's worth of extra players. If you're in a league where centres, defencemen, or goalies are worth a little extra, then you may find it slightly easier to find a depth player worth rostering next year. More simply, don't pay the usual prices you would have to in your league, as there should be more options than you are used to being available. This is especially true for goalies, where there are going to be 64 goalies instead of 62. For larger 20+ team leagues, that is going to make a huge difference, and allow for a lot more flexibility. However, trying to guess at this point who is going to be seeing the majority of the starts for the Kraken is a fool's errand.
Scheduling:
There's a whole extra NHL team joining what is already a messy and condensed schedule in a non-pandemic year. What this likely means is that it will be a smidgen easier to rack up games on the off nights. Compared to the 1230 games in the 2016-17 season, which was the last one before the Vegas Golden Knights joined, there will be 1312 games scheduled next season (assuming we are back to an 82-game slate).
For Roto leagues, (similar to above) this means extra goalie games, and for H2H or points leagues it means extra available streaming options, albeit without any added talent. Overall, the talent around the NHL isn't increasing with the extra players, so the free agency pool is being further diluted. Yes, there will be more ice time and power play time available, but it will still pay off in the long run to go for quality at the top end of your roster, and then stream in some hot or high-upside players at the bottom end of a roster (settings dependent of course).
We learned from Vegas, that a modern expansion team is not one to be taken lightly, so don't expect them to be a bottom of the table team. On the flip side, I wouldn't put money on Seattle reaching the Stanley Cup Final in their inaugural season, but I have been wrong before.
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Stay safe!