Last week we took some time to review draft steals. We looked at players in various ownership tiers and when they were drafted (if they were). We found a number of players who were either drafted late, or not drafted at all but are highly owned now. This week the plan is to flip the script and take a look at players who were highly drafted, but now not very highly owned. So your draft busts if you will.

For process we will be using a similar one to last week. So to quote. "To highlight players with big discrepancies we are going to be using some average draft position (ADP) numbers to get an idea of what managers were expecting from players and current owned percentages to get an idea of where managers are valuing players now.

We are then heading over to Frozen Tool Player Profile to dig a little deeper into what is happening for that player. In this situation, we typically will be looking at the overall stats, the players' deployment info (time on ice, linemates etc.), and some of the 'advanced' stats.

One additional point to make here – we are going to be using ADPs, but all leagues have a slightly different size… a ten-team league could have a few as 150 players used, and a 14-team league could have closer to 250."

To start I filtered for all of the players taken in the first three rounds (if we assume something close to a twelve-team league). If we sort by rostered percentage, we have a few fairly unsurprising names on the low end of ownership.

Player Name	Pos	ADP	% Rostered
Nikita Kucherov	RW	5.2	42%
Taylor Hall	LW	34.8	77%
Mika Zibanejad	C	10.3	86%
Brent Burns	D	33.3	93%

Nikita Kucherov is injured, so his number is not that surprising, but we had big hopes for Taylor Hall and Mika Zibanejad going into the season.

Hall's 47-point pace is killing his fantasy owners. Over the summer the prospect of him playing with Jack Eichel was tantalizing. The sky seemed to be the limit, and it turns out the limit was not so much the sky, as a cramped basement. In the potentially positive column, there are definitely some indicators that could swing his way (like his 2.8% shooting percentage rebounding), but with Eichel out and the Sabres floundering, there is not a lot to like here.

Mika Zibanejad apparently just needed a nine-goal outing to get back on track (maybe?) His six-point night on 3/17 has him up to a 50-point pace on the season. Prior to that, he was on a 40-point pace. And that includes his most productive stretch of the season where he put up eight points in his prior eleven games. With Artemi Panarin returning and his personal shooting percentage still a bit low, it is possible Zibanejad can put in a more productive in the second half than the first half, but the 100+ point pace from 2019-20 is out of reach.

Our next back of players are from Round 4 to 8-ish. The majority of our concerning players here are from Rounds 6 to 8. Those third and fourth rounds seem to have worked out pretty well for managers.

Player Name	Pos	ADP	% Rostered
Anthony Mantha	LW,RW	64.5	20%
Tony DeAngelo	D	97	21%
Kevin Fiala	LW,RW	85.2	53%
Ryan Ellis	D	97.5	53%
Oliver Bjorkstrand	LW,RW	95.2	57%
Dylan Larkin	C	56.5	61%
Timo Meier	LW,RW	58.2	63%
Rasmus Dahlin	D	70.9	65%
Erik Karlsson	D	68.5	67%
Ryan Pulock	D	77	72%
Teuvo Teravainen	LW,RW	60.4	75%
Travis Konecny	RW	67.4	75%
Zach Werenski	D	78.5	75%
Tom Wilson	RW	92.5	75%
Mark Giordano	D	91.1	77%

Anthony Mantha

Mantha has been in a similar boat to Zibanejad, with a major exception being a six-point outing in a shellacking of the Flyers. He still sits at a 40-point pace, and unfortunately, there aren't a ton of really positive signs. He has lost some time on ice, his shot production is down, and his shooting percentage is right about where it should be (so no natural rebound there). His teammates are shooting a bit below expected at five-on-five, and he is getting in on a bit fewer of them than expected, but not by a lot in any case. On the plus side, though, he does have five points in his last six games so has shown some signs of life.

Kevin Fiala

Fiala's 48-point pace isn't what his managers were hoping for after his explosion to a 79-point pace in 2019-20. He has kept up a higher time on ice, passing the 17-minute mark on average, and is shooting over three shots per game. Most of his underlying numbers are a little bit low, but not dramatically so. He could be in for a bit of a better second half, but the indicators are not predicting huge changes.

Oliver Bjorkstrand

Bjorkstrand is fairly low in the rostered numbers, but it isn't exactly clear why. He has had a few two or three-game stretches without a point but is on a 63-point pace. He put up a 60-point pace in 2019-20, so unless managers were hoping for a big jump he is right on target. His shot pace and his time on ice are actually down somewhat, which might be a cause for future concern, but it hasn't damped his production much thus far.

Our next group is made up of players from about the 8th to the 12th round.

Player Name	Pos	ADP	% Rostered
Evgenii Dadonov	LW,RW	131.6	23%
Alexander Edler	D	136.2	26%
Alexis Lafreniere	LW	117	31%
Jonathan Toews	C	134.5	33%
Jacob Trouba	D	131.6	40%
Colton Parayko	D	130.4	43%
Tomas Tatar	LW,RW	119.9	46%
Tomas Hertl	C,LW	127	48%

Evgenii Dadonov

Dadonov's 2019-20 has certainly been a disappointment. There was some concern about him leaving the plum deployment of Aleksander Barkov's pocket, but some potential that as the go-to guy (with Brady Tkachuk) in Ottawa he could be leaned on. Unfortunately, he is playing a bit less and shooting less. Some of his numbers are low and could be due for some correction, or possibly Ottawa could just be a worse place for scoring than Florida. He is currently on a 27-point pace, so even some rebound there doesn't really make him rosterable.

And finally, 12th round and above. At this point, most players are a shot in the dark for a lot of leagues so it isn't surprising that these numbers are low and changing frequently.

Player Name	Pos	ADP	% Rostered
Nikita Gusev	LW,RW	175.1	5%
David Savard	D	196	7%
Jesperi Kotkaniemi	C	176	8%
Erik Gustafsson	D	196.3	8%
Jason Zucker	LW,RW	168.8	9%
Jeff Skinner	LW	199.3	11%
Kirby Dach	C	187.5	14%
Jared Spurgeon	D	169.5	17%
Filip Hronek	D	153.7	20%
Linus Ullmark	G	173	21%
P.K. Subban	D	183.7	22%
Max Domi	C,LW	180.2	24%
Tyler Bertuzzi	LW,RW	195.6	24%
Ryan Graves	D	180.2	25%
Matt Duchene	C,RW	184.3	25%

Players are all over the place on this list but I wanted to reference two.

Nikita Gusev

Gusev had some hype in 2019-20, and sort of met expectations with a 55-point season. The idea was to grow in his second season, but Gusev didn't get that memo. He is down to a 23-point pace thus far. The good news for Gusev is that almost all of his indicators imply that this pace is not sustainable and that he is due for better production. The bad news is the baseline is a 27-point pace.

Filip Hronek

Hronek had a little bit of hype in the off-season as he finished 2019-20 pretty strong, and while he started slow, is off to a career 49-point pace season. He is currently buoyed by nine points in his last seven games, with three multi-point outings in his last four. He is seeing slightly more favorable percentages across the board, meaning he is getting in on more goals than usual, but not dramatically so, and his personal and team five-on-five shooting percentages are low. In fact, he scored just his first goal of the season recently on an empty-net goal. I am calling this pace fairly sustainable, as even if he is less involved in the offense going forward, chances are more goals are going to be scored when he is on the ice. His value is obviously league-dependent, but 20% ownership seems low.

That is all for this week. Thanks for reading. Stay safe out there.

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Want more tool talk? Check out these recent Frozen Tool Forensics Posts.

Frozen Tools Forensics: Unexpected Ownership Numbers

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