Frozen Tools Forensics: Unexpected Ownership – The Dropped Edition

Chris Kane

2021-03-19

Last week we took some time to review draft steals. We looked at players in various ownership tiers and when they were drafted (if they were). We found a number of players who were either drafted late, or not drafted at all but are highly owned now. This week the plan is to flip the script and take a look at players who were highly drafted, but now not very highly owned. So your draft busts if you will.

For process we will be using a similar one to last week. So to quote. "To highlight players with big discrepancies we are going to be using some average draft position (ADP) numbers to get an idea of what managers were expecting from players and current owned percentages to get an idea of where managers are valuing players now.

We are then heading over to Frozen Tool Player Profile to dig a little deeper into what is happening for that player. In this situation, we typically will be looking at the overall stats, the players' deployment info (time on ice, linemates etc.), and some of the 'advanced' stats.

One additional point to make here – we are going to be using ADPs, but all leagues have a slightly different size… a ten-team league could have a few as 150 players used, and a 14-team league could have closer to 250."

To start I filtered for all of the players taken in the first three rounds (if we assume something close to a twelve-team league). If we sort by rostered percentage, we have a few fairly unsurprising names on the low end of ownership.

Player NamePosADP% Rostered
Nikita KucherovRW5.242%
Taylor HallLW34.877%
Mika ZibanejadC10.386%
Brent BurnsD33.393%

Nikita Kucherov is injured, so his number is not that surprising, but we had big hopes for Taylor Hall and Mika Zibanejad going into the season.

Hall's 47-point pace is killing his fantasy owners. Over the summer the prospect of him playing with Jack Eichel was tantalizing. The sky seemed to be the limit, and it turns out the limit was not so much the sky, as a cramped basement. In the potentially positive column, there are definitely some indicators that could swing his way (like his 2.8% shooting percentage rebounding), but with Eichel out and the Sabres floundering, there is not a lot to like here.

Mika Zibanejad apparently just needed a nine-goal outing to get back on track (maybe?) His six-