Looking Ahead: More Goals For Montreal

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-03-19

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, March 17.

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Eeli Tolvanen, W, Nashville Predators (Available in 67 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ After a ton of helium coming out of the Finnish league after Tolvanen was drafted in 2017, the actual arrival of Tolvanen was more of a whimper than a shout: just two points in his first seven NHL games and then 71 combined points in 121 AHL games over the past two seasons. That lack of production has led to Tolvanen being a bit of a forgotten piece for fantasy purposes, but also starting the year as a third-line tweener helped Tolvanen fall between the cracks.

With all the injuries in Nashville though, and their great upcoming schedule (see below), Tolvanen is a great short-term fantasy grab for teams in need. With the Predators missing so many key pieces (Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, Matt Duchene, Luke Kunin) and Nashville struggling to score in most games, Tolvanen's now been vaulted up to a cushy top-line position alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen, and Tolvanen's also picking up top power play time.

Since the calendar turned to March, Tolvanen's put up 3G-2A in eight games, which while it isn't incredible production, is buoyed by the young winger seeing a good increase in ice time. Tolvanen didn't top 15 minutes in a game until the eighth game of the year but has done that in three of his past five (including a regulation game of 17:25.) He's a great injury fill-in or can replace a winger on one of Ottawa/Vancouver/Carolina.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

Jonathan Drouin, W, Montreal Canadiens (Available in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ Although it doesn't feel like Montreal is blowing the roof off with their scoring this season in an easy North division, the Habs are scoring 3.2 goals per game and are outpacing teams like Colorado and Vegas, and beating the North division average of 3.07. That scoring has to go somewhere, and Jonathan Drouin is perfectly positioned to contribute to both the real-life Canadiens and to fantasy rosters.

Drouin's struggled to find the back of the net so far this year, sitting on all of two goals, but has also added 18 assists for a respectable 20 points in 29 games. Drouin is shooting a career-worst 4.3 percent – his average in Montreal is 8.9 and his career average is 9.4 – so expect the goals to start coming. On the year Drouin's not playing very much (16:01 per game) which is both a function of how deep Montreal's lineup is and how evenly-spread out the power plays are in Montreal, but he's topped that ice time in all of his past five games. Drouin's true talent, current low shooting percentage and spending his 5v5 time with Josh Anderson and one of Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nick Suzuki makes Drouin a buy long-term.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Tyler Myers, D, Vancouver Canucks (Owned in 47 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ On the whole, Myers is actually having a solid season: 4G-10A in only 33 games, and that's not on an outrageous shooting percentage, just 6.3 percent which is actually below his career average of 6.8.

The reason for concern for those rostering Myers in fantasy is that Myers hasn't produced at this pace since his first two years in Buffalo, a long 12 years ago. Myers is currently picking up a point on 46.6 percent of goals scored with Myers on the ice, which is slightly high for a defenseman and a drastic change from the past two seasons where Myers was below 40. In leagues that track peripherals Myers is definitely a strong option because he hits and blocks at a great rate, but with Vancouver's poor upcoming schedule and the lack of power-play time, lower expectations in a big way.

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres (Owned in 60 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) â€“ The first overall pick in 2018 looked like he would be dominant player coming into his third year, after hitting 44 in his first 82 games and was even better last year with 40 in 59 games. Unfortunately, Dahlin plays for Buffalo. End of paragraph. End of input. Drop Dahlin.

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…the reality for Dahlin is that as long as the team around him continues to be as bad as it is – and as thin as the Sabres roster already is, losing Jack Eichel for an undetermined amount of time hurts them even more. Dahlin's also shooting at a terrible rate (1.8 percent) right now and that should see a positive tick, but in non-keeper leagues there are better defensemen available. This is even more drastic in leagues that track plus-minus, as Dahlin is a whopping -27 on the season.

Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from March 19 to March 31

New Jersey – The Devils play seven games this period which makes them a Love 'Em based on volume, even though New Jersey isn't the most fantasy-relevant team in the league. The positive for New Jersey is that they've scored decently in recent games – three or more goals in three of their past five, and they still haven't been shut out this year. New Jersey will play one home game against Pittsburgh and spend the rest of the time on the road in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (once each), Washington (twice) and Boston (twice).

Nashville – While the Predators have been a relative disappointment this year – they've scored five or more only twice – part of that can be chalked up to injuries, and part of that can be chalked up to playing some tough teams in Tampa Bay and Dallas more often than in a normal season. On a positive note for Nashville, they'll play games against Florida, Chicago twice, and Detroit twice as well as Dallas twice; five of their next seven games are appealing.

Montreal – Six of the Habs' next seven games come at home, all against enticing competition: twice against Vancouver, three times against Edmonton and once against Ottawa, as well as finishing this period with a game against Ottawa again. Montreal has an early back-to-back against the Canucks but otherwise has one day off between the rest of their games, and as mentioned earlier are outpacing their division with a good 3.2 goals per game so far.

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Ottawa – With their next game not coming until Monday the 22nd, Ottawa gets a mini-break the same way Toronto got one last week (and that Vancouver gets as well), and it's well-timed for their goalies – Matt Murray and Joey Daccord are both injured – but bad timing for fantasy players. When the Sens return, they'll play games against the Flames (good!), Leafs (bad!) and Habs (bad!).

Vancouver – After jamming four games into the next six days, Vancouver gets a mini-break to close out the month of March, with no games between the 25th and 30th. That makes Vancouver an enticing option for the next week but a longer-term Leave 'Em for the rest of the period, as only five games will really mute production. Vancouver plays at Montreal twice, and home to Winnipeg twice and Calgary once.

Carolina – The Hurricanes only play five times this period and three of them come against the Blue Jackets – all in a row, after playing each other Thursday night. None of those are appealing games, and Carolina's remaining two games in the period come against the Lightning (at home) and the Blackhawks (in Chicago.)

March 19 to March 25
Best Bets
PIT 4.51 – Away NJD – Home NJD BUF BUF
NSH 4.42 – Away FLA DAL – Home DET DET
MTL 4.41 – Away – Home VAN VAN EDM EDM
LAK 4.38 – Away SJS SJS – Home VGK VGK
CGY 4.37 – Away TOR TOR OTT OTT – Home
Steer Clear
CAR 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ- Home CBJ
CBJ 2.8975 – Away CAR – Home CAR CAR
DET 2.94 – Away NSH NSH- Home DAL
ARI 2.9825 – Away ANH – Home COL COL
WPG 2.9925 – Away EDM VAN VAN – Home
March 20 to March 26
Best Bets
NJD 4.945 – Away PIT PHI WSH WSH- Home PIT
PIT 4.51 – Away NJD – Home NJD BUF BUF
NSH 4.42 – Away FLA DAL – Home DET DET
MTL 4.41 – Away – Home VAN EDM EDM EDM
CGY 4.375 – Away TOR OTT OTT – Home WPG
Steer Clear
TOR 2.19 – Away OTT – Home CGY
CAR 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home CBJ
VGK 2.845 – Away LAK COL – Home STL
CBJ 2.8975 – Away CAR – Home CAR CAR
DET 2.94 – Away NSH NSH – Home DAL
March 21 to March 27
Best Bets
PIT 4.4625 – – Home NJD BUF BUF NYI
PHI 4.4625 – Home NYI NJD NYR NYR
NSH 4.42 – Away DAL CHI- Home DET DET
ARI 4.41 – Away – Home COL COL SJS SJS
CGY 4.38 – Away OTT OTT – Home WPG WPG
Steer Clear
VAN 2.1 – Away – Home WPG WPG
TOR 2.2425 – Away OTT – Home EDM
WSH 2.31 – Away – Home NJD NJD
CAR 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home TBL
DET 2.94 – Away NSH NSH – Home CBJ
March 22 to March 28
Best Bets
NSH 4.61 – Away CHI CHI- Home DET DET
MTL 4.5675 – Home EDM EDM EDM OTT
CHI 4.515 – Away – Home FLA FLA NSH NSH
PHI 4.4625 – Away – Home NYI NJD NYR NYR
STL 4.41 – Away VGK MIN – Home ANH ANH
Steer Clear
VAN 2.1 – Away – Home WPG WPG
TOR 2.2425 – Away OTT – Home EDM
LAK 2.28 – Away SJS SJS – Home
VGK 2.655 – Away COL COL – Home STL
PIT 3.3075 – Away – Home BUF BUF NYI
March 23 to March 29
Best Bets
NSH 4.61 – Away CHI CHI – Home DET DET
PHI 4.51 – Away BUF- Home NJD NYR NYR
PIT 4.305 – Away – Home BUF BUF NYI NYI
CHI 4.515 – Home FLA FLA NSH NSH
DAL 4.305 – Away – Home TBL TBL FLA FLA
Steer Clear
VAN 1.05 – Away – Home WPG
LAK 2.09 – Away SJS VGK- Home
CAR 2.85 – Away CBJ – Home TBL TBL
VGK 2.865 – Away COL COL – Home LAK
NYR 2.8975 – Away PHI PHI WSH – Home
March 24 to March 30
Best Bets
MTL 4.605 – Away OTT- Home EDM EDM OTT
WSH 4.51 – Away NYR- Home NJD NJD NYR
BOS 4.4625 – Away – Home NYI BUF NJD NJD
CHI 4.3575 – Away – Home FLA NSH NSH CAR
PIT 4.305 – Away – Home BUF BUF NYI NYI
Steer Clear
VAN 1.05 – Away – Home WPG
LAK 2.09 – Away SJS VGK – Home
ARI 2.52 – Away – Home SJS SJS
NYI 2.7075 – Away BOS PIT PIT – Home
VGK 2.865 – Away COL COL – Home LAK
March 25 to March 31
Best Bets
WSH 4.51 – Away NYR – Home NJD NJD NYR
BOS 4.4625 – Home NYI BUF NJD NJD
PHI 4.4 – Away BUF BUF- Home NYR NYR
CHI 4.3575 – Away – Home FLA NSH NSH CAR
DAL 4.305 – Away NSH – Home TBL FLA FLA
Steer Clear
VAN 1.05 – Away – Home CGY
LAK 1.9 – Away VGK VGK- Home
ANH 2.565 – Away STL STL COL – Home
NYI 2.7075 – Away BOS PIT PIT – Home
EDM 3.0875 – Away MTL TOR TOR – Home

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 21 - 19:11 WSH vs COL
Nov 21 - 19:11 CBJ vs T.B
Nov 21 - 19:11 OTT vs VGK
Nov 21 - 19:11 DET vs NYI
Nov 21 - 19:11 BOS vs UTA
Nov 21 - 19:11 N.J vs CAR
Nov 21 - 20:11 STL vs S.J
Nov 21 - 20:11 CHI vs FLA
Nov 21 - 21:11 CGY vs NYR
Nov 21 - 21:11 EDM vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JASON ROBERTSON DAL
WYATT JOHNSTON DAL
DECLAN CHISHOLM MIN
JAKE WALMAN S.J
WILLIAM EKLUND S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
SEBASTIAN COSSA DET
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD S.J
IVAN FEDOTOV PHI
YAROSLAV ASKAROV S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency EDM Players
43.2 VASILY PODKOLZIN CONNOR MCDAVID LEON DRAISAITL
27.3 JEFF SKINNER RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS KASPERI KAPANEN
25.6 MATTIAS JANMARK ADAM HENRIQUE CONNOR BROWN

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