Looking Ahead: More Goals For Montreal
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-03-19
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, March 17.
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Eeli Tolvanen, W, Nashville Predators (Available in 67 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After a ton of helium coming out of the Finnish league after Tolvanen was drafted in 2017, the actual arrival of Tolvanen was more of a whimper than a shout: just two points in his first seven NHL games and then 71 combined points in 121 AHL games over the past two seasons. That lack of production has led to Tolvanen being a bit of a forgotten piece for fantasy purposes, but also starting the year as a third-line tweener helped Tolvanen fall between the cracks.
With all the injuries in Nashville though, and their great upcoming schedule (see below), Tolvanen is a great short-term fantasy grab for teams in need. With the Predators missing so many key pieces (Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi, Matt Duchene, Luke Kunin) and Nashville struggling to score in most games, Tolvanen's now been vaulted up to a cushy top-line position alongside Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen, and Tolvanen's also picking up top power play time.
Since the calendar turned to March, Tolvanen's put up 3G-2A in eight games, which while it isn't incredible production, is buoyed by the young winger seeing a good increase in ice time. Tolvanen didn't top 15 minutes in a game until the eighth game of the year but has done that in three of his past five (including a regulation game of 17:25.) He's a great injury fill-in or can replace a winger on one of Ottawa/Vancouver/Carolina.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Jonathan Drouin, W, Montreal Canadiens (Available in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although it doesn't feel like Montreal is blowing the roof off with their scoring this season in an easy North division, the Habs are scoring 3.2 goals per game and are outpacing teams like Colorado and Vegas, and beating the North division average of 3.07. That scoring has to go somewhere, and Jonathan Drouin is perfectly positioned to contribute to both the real-life Canadiens and to fantasy rosters.
Drouin's struggled to find the back of the net so far this year, sitting on all of two goals, but has also added 18 assists for a respectable 20 points in 29 games. Drouin is shooting a career-worst 4.3 percent – his average in Montreal is 8.9 and his career average is 9.4 – so expect the goals to start coming. On the year Drouin's not playing very much (16:01 per game) which is both a function of how deep Montreal's lineup is and how evenly-spread out the power plays are in Montreal, but he's topped that ice time in all of his past five games. Drouin's true talent, current low shooting percentage and spending his 5v5 time with Josh Anderson and one of Jesperi Kotkaniemi or Nick Suzuki makes Drouin a buy long-term.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Tyler Myers, D, Vancouver Canucks (Owned in 47 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – On the whole, Myers is actually having a solid season: 4G-10A in only 33 games, and that's not on an outrageous shooting percentage, just 6.3 percent which is actually below his career average of 6.8.
The reason for concern for those rostering Myers in fantasy is that Myers hasn't produced at this pace since his first two years in Buffalo, a long 12 years ago. Myers is currently picking up a point on 46.6 percent of goals scored with Myers on the ice, which is slightly high for a defenseman and a drastic change from the past two seasons where Myers was below 40. In leagues that track peripherals Myers is definitely a strong option because he hits and blocks at a great rate, but with Vancouver's poor upcoming schedule and the lack of power-play time, lower expectations in a big way.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Rasmus Dahlin, D, Buffalo Sabres (Owned in 60 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The first overall pick in 2018 looked like he would be dominant player coming into his third year, after hitting 44 in his first 82 games and was even better last year with 40 in 59 games. Unfortunately, Dahlin plays for Buffalo. End of paragraph. End of input. Drop Dahlin.
…the reality for Dahlin is that as long as the team around him continues to be as bad as it is – and as thin as the Sabres roster already is, losing Jack Eichel for an undetermined amount of time hurts them even more. Dahlin's also shooting at a terrible rate (1.8 percent) right now and that should see a positive tick, but in non-keeper leagues there are better defensemen available. This is even more drastic in leagues that track plus-minus, as Dahlin is a whopping -27 on the season.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from March 19 to March 31
New Jersey – The Devils play seven games this period which makes them a Love 'Em based on volume, even though New Jersey isn't the most fantasy-relevant team in the league. The positive for New Jersey is that they've scored decently in recent games – three or more goals in three of their past five, and they still haven't been shut out this year. New Jersey will play one home game against Pittsburgh and spend the rest of the time on the road in Pittsburgh and Philadelphia (once each), Washington (twice) and Boston (twice).
Nashville – While the Predators have been a relative disappointment this year – they've scored five or more only twice – part of that can be chalked up to injuries, and part of that can be chalked up to playing some tough teams in Tampa Bay and Dallas more often than in a normal season. On a positive note for Nashville, they'll play games against Florida, Chicago twice, and Detroit twice as well as Dallas twice; five of their next seven games are appealing.
Montreal – Six of the Habs' next seven games come at home, all against enticing competition: twice against Vancouver, three times against Edmonton and once against Ottawa, as well as finishing this period with a game against Ottawa again. Montreal has an early back-to-back against the Canucks but otherwise has one day off between the rest of their games, and as mentioned earlier are outpacing their division with a good 3.2 goals per game so far.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Ottawa – With their next game not coming until Monday the 22nd, Ottawa gets a mini-break the same way Toronto got one last week (and that Vancouver gets as well), and it's well-timed for their goalies – Matt Murray and Joey Daccord are both injured – but bad timing for fantasy players. When the Sens return, they'll play games against the Flames (good!), Leafs (bad!) and Habs (bad!).
Vancouver – After jamming four games into the next six days, Vancouver gets a mini-break to close out the month of March, with no games between the 25th and 30th. That makes Vancouver an enticing option for the next week but a longer-term Leave 'Em for the rest of the period, as only five games will really mute production. Vancouver plays at Montreal twice, and home to Winnipeg twice and Calgary once.
Carolina – The Hurricanes only play five times this period and three of them come against the Blue Jackets – all in a row, after playing each other Thursday night. None of those are appealing games, and Carolina's remaining two games in the period come against the Lightning (at home) and the Blackhawks (in Chicago.)
March 19 to March 25 |
Best Bets |
PIT 4.51 – Away NJD – Home NJD BUF BUF |
NSH 4.42 – Away FLA DAL – Home DET DET |
MTL 4.41 – Away – Home VAN VAN EDM EDM |
LAK 4.38 – Away SJS SJS – Home VGK VGK |
CGY 4.37 – Away TOR TOR OTT OTT – Home |
Steer Clear |
CAR 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ- Home CBJ |
CBJ 2.8975 – Away CAR – Home CAR CAR |
DET 2.94 – Away NSH NSH- Home DAL |
ARI 2.9825 – Away ANH – Home COL COL |
WPG 2.9925 – Away EDM VAN VAN – Home |
March 20 to March 26 |
Best Bets |
NJD 4.945 – Away PIT PHI WSH WSH- Home PIT |
PIT 4.51 – Away NJD – Home NJD BUF BUF |
NSH 4.42 – Away FLA DAL – Home DET DET |
MTL 4.41 – Away – Home VAN EDM EDM EDM |
CGY 4.375 – Away TOR OTT OTT – Home WPG |
Steer Clear |
TOR 2.19 – Away OTT – Home CGY |
CAR 2.655 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home CBJ |
VGK 2.845 – Away LAK COL – Home STL |
CBJ 2.8975 – Away CAR – Home CAR CAR |
DET 2.94 – Away NSH NSH – Home DAL |
March 21 to March 27 |
Best Bets |
PIT 4.4625 – – Home NJD BUF BUF NYI |
PHI 4.4625 – Home NYI NJD NYR NYR |
NSH 4.42 – Away DAL CHI- Home DET DET |
ARI 4.41 – Away – Home COL COL SJS SJS |
CGY 4.38 – Away OTT OTT – Home WPG WPG |
Steer Clear |
VAN 2.1 – Away – Home WPG WPG |
TOR 2.2425 – Away OTT – Home EDM |
WSH 2.31 – Away – Home NJD NJD |
CAR 2.7075 – Away CBJ CBJ – Home TBL |
DET 2.94 – Away NSH NSH – Home CBJ |
March 22 to March 28 |
Best Bets |
NSH 4.61 – Away CHI CHI- Home DET DET |
MTL 4.5675 – Home EDM EDM EDM OTT |
CHI 4.515 – Away – Home FLA FLA NSH NSH |
PHI 4.4625 – Away – Home NYI NJD NYR NYR |
STL 4.41 – Away VGK MIN – Home ANH ANH |
Steer Clear |
VAN 2.1 – Away – Home WPG WPG |
TOR 2.2425 – Away OTT – Home EDM |
LAK 2.28 – Away SJS SJS – Home |
VGK 2.655 – Away COL COL – Home STL |
PIT 3.3075 – Away – Home BUF BUF NYI |
March 23 to March 29 |
Best Bets |
NSH 4.61 – Away CHI CHI – Home DET DET |
PHI 4.51 – Away BUF- Home NJD NYR NYR |
PIT 4.305 – Away – Home BUF BUF NYI NYI |
CHI 4.515 – Home FLA FLA NSH NSH |
DAL 4.305 – Away – Home TBL TBL FLA FLA |
Steer Clear |
VAN 1.05 – Away – Home WPG |
LAK 2.09 – Away SJS VGK- Home |
CAR 2.85 – Away CBJ – Home TBL TBL |
VGK 2.865 – Away COL COL – Home LAK |
NYR 2.8975 – Away PHI PHI WSH – Home |
March 24 to March 30 |
Best Bets |
MTL 4.605 – Away OTT- Home EDM EDM OTT |
WSH 4.51 – Away NYR- Home NJD NJD NYR |
BOS 4.4625 – Away – Home NYI BUF NJD NJD |
CHI 4.3575 – Away – Home FLA NSH NSH CAR |
PIT 4.305 – Away – Home BUF BUF NYI NYI |
Steer Clear |
VAN 1.05 – Away – Home WPG |
LAK 2.09 – Away SJS VGK – Home |
ARI 2.52 – Away – Home SJS SJS |
NYI 2.7075 – Away BOS PIT PIT – Home |
VGK 2.865 – Away COL COL – Home LAK |
March 25 to March 31 |
Best Bets |
WSH 4.51 – Away NYR – Home NJD NJD NYR |
BOS 4.4625 – Home NYI BUF NJD NJD |
PHI 4.4 – Away BUF BUF- Home NYR NYR |
CHI 4.3575 – Away – Home FLA NSH NSH CAR |
DAL 4.305 – Away NSH – Home TBL FLA FLA |
Steer Clear |
VAN 1.05 – Away – Home CGY |
LAK 1.9 – Away VGK VGK- Home |
ANH 2.565 – Away STL STL COL – Home |
NYI 2.7075 – Away BOS PIT PIT – Home |
EDM 3.0875 – Away MTL TOR TOR – Home |