Ramblings: NHL officiating; updates on Frost and Dobson; Josi, Heiskanen, and Kubalik – March 25

Michael Clifford

2021-03-25

The big news from Wednesday was that referee Tim Peel will not be officiating any more NHL games. This comes on the heels of Peel being mic'd up in a game and explaining he's not actually calling penalties, but more managing the game, as it were. That led to this:  

That Peel admitted to this is not a surprise. Not only is it what NHL players want (I have a Twitter thread with a few players expressing support for this style of officiating), but with no public accountability mechanism, there is no desire for anything to change. If the referees can't be held accountable in any real manner other than being blatantly caught on microphone, and the players want the games called this way, why would they be called any other way? Mind you, referees not calling actual infractions in an attempt to not decide the game is, in fact, deciding the game, but for some reason thousands of hockey fans can't wrap their head around this concept.

It is engrained in hockey culture and won't change anytime soon. We can keep making fun of the refs but hoping for actual, substantive change is a pipe dream.

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An update on Noah Dobson

He had been on the COVID list for over 10 days but was taken off on Wednesday, along with David Pastrnak. Though, when the two are able to play is still up in the air.

Zach Parise was a game-time addition to the COVID list for Minnesota.

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An update on Morgan Frost:

It seems like hopes are shot for this year, especially if the Flyers fall further out of the playoff race. Another young guy I just hope is fine for 2021-22.

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Bobby Plager, one of the long-time faces of the St. Louis Blues franchise, died in a car accident on Wednesday. He was 78.

Plager was on the original Blues team when it expanded in 1967 and remained there for 11 years. He was one of the true faces of the franchise. Condolences to his family and the extended Blues community.

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Calgary blew a 1-0 third-period lead against Ottawa to succumb 3-1 via goals from Josh Norris, Chris Tierney, and Nikita Zaitsev. Filip Gustavsson looked good once again, saving 28 of 29 shots he faced in the win, his second this week.

That makes three goals in four games for Norris. I have been impressed with him this year. He seems to be able to create chances for both himself and his teammates, and is competent defensively. That is a good showing for a rookie on a bad team. I wonder if we're not looking at Brady Tkachuk's centre next year.

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Jared Spurgeon scored two goals in Minnesota's 3-2 win Wednesday over Anaheim. It wasn't really a great game for Minnesota but sometimes, your best players carry you to a win. That was what Spurgeon did here.

He has started to turn his season around with three goals and four points in his last five games, nearly equaling his production (five points) from his first 25 games.

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We are very quickly approaching the end of the NHL regular season. There are about six weeks left – honestly! – and that means the time to right the ship is running out. If I may be so bold, I think the best way for fantasy owners to get about righting that ship is to pick up your copy of the 2021 Dobber Midseason Fantasy Guide. It has everything from rest-of-season projections, NCAA/European imports, other prospects to watch for, and a whole lot more. It is a great resource even if you don't have much to play for the balance of this fantasy season.

But for those that do, I thought I would go through some players I think could have a final big six weeks. Be it under-performance so far, a trade to a new team, a new role on their existing team, or a combination of those and other issues. Let us dive right in. Most stats from Natural Stat Trick.  

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Taylor Hall

This is probably one of the most obvious one. Hall was even written about by one of our newest writers, Ryan Sheppard, earlier this week. He had other guys that could have big second halves so be sure to check out that column.

As for Hall himself, the big upside is that he's surely to be traded and he'll be heading to a contender. I mean, I hope it's a contender, it could end up being, like, Columbus or something. You never really know.

Anyway, some quick math for Hall:

  • He is shooting 1.9 percent at 5-on-5 this year. His career-low is 4.68 percent and that was his only other season below six percent. Not that it would mean a lot, but we should probably see his goals output triple over the balance of the season, from one to three. Listen, progress is progress, don't make fun.
  • He has an on-ice expected goal rate of 2.33 and an actual mark of 1.94. Not for nothing, but just regression to the mean for the balance of the season adds a couple points to his expected output. Again, nothing crazy here, but a couple points here and there add up.
  • His individual points percentage (IPP, or the rate he gets a point when his team scores a goal) is a career-low 64.3 percent. Again, regression would add a point or two.

When we start to add up all the ways he's been 'unlucky' this year, there are a couple points here and there that would add up to a half-dozen or more added to the end of the season. I get that it still wouldn't be a great season, but if Hall has six goals and 22 points in 30 games on this god-awful Sabres team, I don't think anyone really bats an eye.

Now we look forward. Hall is only a year removed from 16 goals and 36 assists in 65 games playing between New Jersey and Arizona. That pro-rates to 20 goals and 45 assists over 82 games, and those were some bad offensive teams. If he can be a 65-point player on bad teams not named Buffalo – because for some reason, Buffalo saps the will of anyone traded there – what can he do if he's traded to Colorado or Edmonton or Carolina? One salivates at the thought.

Miro Heiskanen

Quick question: How many games does Dallas have coming up in the next five weeks? The answer: 20. Starting this Saturday, March 27th, the Stars begin a stretch of games that see them play 20 games in the next five weeks. That is a pile of hockey in a very short time and I want to say that could be a bad thing; injuries can pile up when athletes don't have a chance to rest. However, of those 20 games, only one is against Tampa Bay. That means there are a pile of winnable games and mediocre-to-bad defensive teams coming up for Dallas, and they're on the docket here very shortly.

Heiskanen had a tough start to the season with no goals and nine points through 16 games, with just 22 shots on goal. Maybe not unexpected, given all the turbulence Dallas went through early in the campaign.

Since the start of March, his points/game has actually declined a bit (6 in 12) but he has three goals, and has 33 shots on target in those 12 contests. That is a lot closer to what we should expect from Heiskanen. What is the bonus here is he's playing a whopping 26:25 per game. That level of ice time with the sheer volume of games he has coming up in the next five weeks, basically through to the final week of the season, makes him a trade target.

Oliver Wahlstrom

I won't dig in a whole lot here because I will admit this a longer shot than most. The reason for going after Wahlstrom is the uptick in ice time he has seen lately: up to 13:48 over his last five contests against 11:15 over his first 21 games. As injuries have started to hit, he's been leaned on more, and is even giving some prime PP contributions. He has 11 shots in those five games, by the way, with five points.

Over the last month, Wahlstrom is top-20 league-wide by individual expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 and ahead of names like Kyle Connor and Andrei Svechnikov in shot attempts/60 minutes. The only thing he needs is ice time, and he's getting more of it. He won't ever get to 18-19 minutes, not this year, but if he can even get 15-16, it makes him a very viable fantasy winger, particularly in leagues that count hits (he's over one per game).

Dominik Kubalik

This may just be a short-term boost, but it's worth noting that over his last four games, Dominik Kubalik is over 17 minutes a night, more than two minutes over his first 28 games of the season. This is a pretty important note as he is fifth (!) in goals/60 at 5-on-5 over his two seasons in the NHL. The only guys he trails are Ovechkin, Pastrnak, Matthews, and Vrana. More ice time can only help one of the NHL's top scorers score more goals.

But even if the boost is temporary, the team has welcomed Dylan Strome back to the fold recently and it appears as though Kirby Dach could be on the way in the next couple weeks. That Kubalik is (likely) going to finally get a real NHL centre this year – no offence to guys like Kampf and Hagel – is a big reason for his inclusion here. If he can get 17 minutes a night playing with Dach? I like his chances of a big six weeks.

Roman Josi

In an 82-game season, the guy would pace for over 50 points, which is great for almost any defenceman not named Josi. Let us count the ways he has been a bit unlucky:

  • 33.3 percent IPP at 5-on-5, the lowest of his career.
  • Zero percent shooting at 5-on-5, also the lowest of his career, having never shot lower than three percent.
  • 4.3 percent on-ice shooting at 5-on-5, also the lowest of his career, having never been on ice for fewer than seven percent conversion rate

Normalizing a few of those would add about six points, bringing him to 22 points in 25 games, much closer to his career norms.

Now, it's a question of whether Nashville turns their own ship around. I would have no problem believing this group doesn't shoot league average, so there is definitely risk here. I just think if you can buy one of the top defencemen in fantasy hockey for 50-75 cents on the dollar for a six-week push, when he's been getting unlucky, it's probably worth the risk if you're far enough out.

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