Cap League Goalie Rankings – March 2021

Alexander MacLean

2021-03-26

The cold streak for Carter Hart is extending longer than many people expected – especially on my end. Rookie goalies like Alex Nedeljkovic, Kevin Lankinen, and Kaapo Kahkonen are all making their mark, further reinforcing two points that I believe in. First, goaltending is not somewhere to spend a lot of money, and second, younger goalies should be given some rope when possible in order to show that they can step in sooner rather than later. 

One goalie that hasn't gotten enough love is Cal Petersen. He has pushed Jonathan Quick aside in the Kings' net, leaving Quick completely outside of the top-62 list here. Petersen is about the sign his third pro contract this summer, and looks primed to take a below-market level deal despite being ready to take on the lion's share of starts moving forward. The Kings also have one of the best prospect systems in the NHL, and aren't far off from really rocketing up the standings. In two or three years Petersen could be providing similar value to what Philipp Grubauer is giving managers this season. As an above-average goalie playing on a below-market deal for one of the stronger teams in the league, Petersen could be a league winner sooner rather than later, and it's worth inquiring on him now before the secret gets out. 

Standard pre-rankings note:

This isn't meant to be a be-all and end-all rating system for you to use without thinking and just trade your players for anyone above them on the list that you can find, but used with some foresight for managing salaries, I'm hoping that the list can help you mine value in trades, and at the draft table. 

Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of rookies. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth. 

The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting. 

The goalie list comes not only with a rankings system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year.In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security.

If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.

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I'm not perfect, and the rankings won't be either. Comments help with optimizing the values. 

We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared. 

All salary info is courtesy of capfriendlyWithout further ado, the rankings: 

RankNameAgeCap HitYrsRatingTier
1Igor Shesterkin25$925,0001160.342
2Carter Hart22$730,8331150.721
3Kevin Lankinen25$800,0002149.863
4Vitek Vanecek25$716,6672148.973
5Calvin Petersen26$858,3332144.334
6Kaapo Kahkonen24$725,0002142.364
7Philipp Grubauer29$3,333,3331140.342
8Thatcher Demko25$1,050,0001131.614
9Casey DeSmith29$1,250,0002129.283
10Jake Oettinger22$925,0002129.063
11Ilya Samsonov24$925,0001124.272
12Andrei Vasilevskiy26$9,500,0008116.341
13Juuse Saros25$1,500,0001111.463
14Tristan Jarry25$3,500,0003108.871
15Connor Hellebuyck27$6,166,6664106.101
16Joonas Korpisalo26$2,800,0002104.063
17Semyon Varlamov32$5,000,0003101.862
18Chris Driedger26$850,0001100.472
19Jordan Binnington27$4,400,0001100.241
20Mackenzie Blackwood24$2,800,000398.633
21Alex Nedeljkovic25$737,500198.554
22Darcy Kuemper30$4,500,000296.913
23Ilya Sorokin25$2,000,000195.532
24Jack Campbell29$1,650,000293.064
25Alex Stalock33$785,000292.764
26Jaroslav Halak35$2,250,000185.533
27Jacob Markstrom31$6,000,000683.833
28Frederik Andersen31$5,000,000183.242
29Cam Talbot33$3,666,666379.165
30Ville Husso26$750,000278.943
31Jonathan Bernier32$3,000,000177.443
32James Reimer33$3,400,000175.214
33Tuukka Rask34$7,000,000174.373
34Pavel Francouz30$2,000,000273.903
35John Gibson27$6,400,000773.453
36Elvis Merzlikins26$4,000,000272.614
37Anton Khudobin34$3,333,333371.724
38Petr Mrazek29$3,125,000171.303
39Malcolm Subban27$850,000267.805
40Ben Bishop34$4,916,666367.545
41Braden Holtby31$4,300,000267.184
42Robin Lehner29$5,000,000567.044
43Linus Ullmark27$2,600,000162.005
44Marc-Andre Fleury36$7,000,000261.785
45Devan Dubnyk34$4,333,333159.556
46Scott Wedgewood28$700,000159.063
47Mikko Koskinen32$4,500,000257.265
48Alexandar Georgiev25$2,425,000256.685
49Matt Murray26$6,250,000455.814
50Brian Elliott35$1,500,000154.376
51Sergei Bobrovsky32$10,000,000653.164
52David Rittich28$2,750,000153.045
53Carey Price33$10,500,000652.793
54Antti Raanta31$4,250,000151.885
55Jake Allen30$4,350,000150.704
56Marcus Hogberg26$700,000149.265
57Martin Jones31$5,750,000447.835
58Mike Smith39$2,000,000247.506
59Adin Hill24$800,000145.745
60Jonas Johansson25$700,000145.375
61Pekka Rinne38$5,000,000144.706
62Carter Hutton35$2,750,000141.926

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