Looking Ahead: March 26 – April 7
Adam Daly-Frey
2021-03-26
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.
Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It's important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, Mar. 24th
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Alex Iafallo, W, Los Angeles Kings (Available in 86 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – At only 14 percent owned on Yahoo!, Iafallo is having a solid season that's flying under the radar: eight goals and 13 assists through the first 31 games, which isn't incredible production but is deserving of an add when everything else is accounted for.
Iafallo is averaging over 20 minutes per game (20:02 to be exact) and plays both on the top line at 5v5 as well as the top power play unit for the Kings, and on a Kings team that is exceeding expectations offensively, Iafallo should continue to contribute for fantasy players. He is shooting at a slightly higher rate than last season (2.3 shots per game) and his shooting percentage isn't outrageous at 11.3 percent, but in 31 games Iafallo already has seven power play points compared to nine in 70 games last year; getting to play those minutes is crucial to his success, and there is no reason to think he'll lose that any time soon. Beyond all those reasons, the Kings also have a great upcoming schedule (see below), so there's no better time to grab him than now.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Filip Hronek, D, Detroit Red Wings (Available in 79 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Although he definitely shouldn't be added in leagues that track plus-minus – Hronek was a whopping -38 last season in 65 games and is already at -12 in 33 games – Hronek does have a lot of value in deeper leagues where underperforming defensemen could be upgraded.
Playing over 23 minutes a night as the team's primary power play option (most of the time), Hronek is helpful especially in leagues that track peripherals – again, not including plus/minus – because of all that ice time; Hronek's combining for two combined hits + blocks per game and although he's not a big penalty guy, he also won't win the Selke. Hronek has put up one goal and 17 assists through 33 games so far and is shooting only 1.5 percent, a great sign for positive regression given he shot 7.2 and 6.8 percent the past two seasons.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Drake Batherson, W, Ottawa Senators (Owned in 39 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – After exploding for goals in six straight games (scoring seven goals and adding three assists) earlier in the season, Batherson's ownership shot up close to where it currently sits with the idea being that someone on the Sens will score. While Batherson has definitely shown flashes of brilliance on a pretty dismal Ottawa team, he's still too highly owned for the return considering players that could replace him (like Alex Iafallo.)
Schedule issues for Ottawa aside (see below), Batherson shouldn't be counted on to produce: he's playing inconsistent minutes – he's topped 19 minutes twice in his past ten games, but played below 16 minutes in five of those games – and has really struggled to produce recently, with only two goals and two assists in his last ten games. Batherson is a fine player to stash in keeper leagues, but he doesn't add much in the way of peripherals – he rarely blocks and only adds ~1.5 hits per game – and unless your league is very deep, Batherson is droppable.
The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Washington Capitals (Owned in 71 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Kuznetsov has historically been a strong player, putting up almost a point per game in his last two seasons and over a point per game back in 2017-18, but a slow start to the season combined with injuries have hurt Kuznetsov's value this season. Part of that is a career-low shooting percentage of just 7.9 percent – half of what Kuznetsov shot last year – and that will see some positive regression, but Kuznetsov is firing pucks at a horrible rate, just 38 shots in 21 games so far (1.8 per game) so even if he shoots 20 percent the rest of the season he'll still be a disappointment.
Beyond the current lack of point production and shots, Kuznetsov also doesn't contribute in peripheral categories like blocks (0.5 per game), hits (0.4 per game) or PIM (0.4 per game). In leagues where that matters, players need to have elite scoring to make up for the lack of peripherals, which Kuznetsov doesn't have. He may be worth hanging onto into deeper leagues and keeper leagues, but on name value alone he could fetch a good return in season-longs.
Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
This period runs from March 26h to April 7th AND AN IMPORTANT NOTE: SCHEDULE CHANGES ARE COMING DUE TO MONTREAL & BOSTON POSTPONEMENTS
Dallas – Even with injuries hurting Dallas for most of the season – Roope Hintz and Alex Radulov are perpetual day-to-days, Tyler Seguin and Ben Bishop are gone, and Joel Kiviranta just went on injured reserve – the Stars still have fantasy-relevant players that will have a great chance to contribute over the next two weeks. The Stars play home two games against Florida before going on the road to Nashville and Carolina (twice each) before finishing the period with a game in Chicago.
Boston – While the Bruins' schedule this period could see some slight tweaks – they have to make up games against the Islanders and Sabres – the Bruins will still play seven times during this period and that shouldn't change even if the schedule does. They're currently slated to play five straight home games (vs. Buffalo, New Jersey twice and Pittsburgh twice) as well as back-to-back road games in Philadelphia.
Los Angeles – The Kings only play six games this period and actually don't play until the 29th, but that means they jam six games into just nine games which will come in handy in the back half of this period. The Kings also have good opponents for fantasy purposes, playing the Sharks twice and the Coyotes (still without their best goalie) with all four games at home; unfortunately the remaining two games come in Las Vegas, but the Kings should still see viable production and tend to fly under the radar in fantasy.
Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Vancouver – The Canucks remain a Leave 'Em team after making an appearance here last week, but somehow their schedule is even worse this period: only four games between the 26th and April 7th, which includes a back-to-back from Edmonton to Winnipeg. Their other games come against Calgary and a second game against Winnipeg.
Ottawa – Losing a game to COVID postponements (originally scheduled March 28th) means Ottawa only plays four games this period, and three of those games come against a tough defensive team in Montreal. Ottawa's last game of the period comes against the Oilers which is a good matchup, but on volume Senator players can't be counted on.
Pittsburgh – Coming off a streak of games against the Devils and Sabres, the Penguins are in for a surprise with their next few games: five games this period, two each against the Islanders and Bruins and the last game against the Rangers. After the Sens and Canucks, five is the lowest number of games for any team, but Pittsburgh would be a team to avoid anyway given the injuries to Evgeni Malkin, Jason Zucker and Kasperi Kapanen – their forward depth is very tough.