Ramblings – Fox a Stud, Laine a Dud…and the Implications of Losing Ekblad (Mar 29)

Dobber

2021-03-29

My opinion on what Adam Fox can do continues to rise. Entering the league I felt like he was capped at the high-50s. That's still great, but it didn't take me too long to think he could one day get to mid-60s. He has 22 points in his last 17 games and 11 in his last four (!). On the season he has 29 points in 33 games. Going back to last year he has 40 in his last 42. That's enough for me to push that upside upwards again. On this team, if he stays healthy I feel like can hit 75. I had recently rambled about how only a few special defensemen have to talent to reach 80, specifically singling out Fox as one who probably couldn't. My, how much has changed in two months. I definitely stand corrected.

Ryan Strome continued his points streak Sunday with another assist. He has points in nine straight, with 14 in that span. As you can see, although his line was held without a point at ES, they were the most dominant for the Rangers:

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
12:1025.4ZIBANEJAD – CHRIS KREIDER – BUCHNEVICH0003633.381142.1
11:0423.1STROME – ARTEMI PANARIN – KAAPO KAKKO01-15550.014573.7
6:3513.8COLIN BLACKWELL – DI GIUSEPPE – KEVIN ROONEY2112250.05362.5
4:5610.3GAUTHIER – FILIP CHYTIL – ALEXIS LAFRENIERE0003175.04640.0
2:184.8PAVEL BUCHNEVICH – FILIP CHYTIL – KAKKO0002166.73175.0

Blackwell snapped a six-game pointless drought on his birthday – he scored twice. He's 28 years old and finally securing an NHL job. On this team, however, there is no room for him in the top six – now, nor next season.

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Jakub Vrana has been held to under 13 minutes of ice time in each of his last three games. The fancy stats group – and the fantasy owners – will never understand what it is the coach is trying to teach here. Vrana is again among the top players on the team in points per 60 (2.7) and his possession numbers are strong (albeit with high Offensive Zone Start %). He recently turned 25, and his contract is up this summer. If the team wants to sign him beyond his UFA year, they'll need to convince him that he'll be used fairly by the coach. This summer will be interesting here.

TJ Oshie was Vrana's linemate Sunday and he picked up two points. He's quietly on a 60-point full-season pace. The 34-year-old is bound to slow down soon, but looks like it won't be this year. In fact, he's been very consistent with his production for three seasons now, with points-per-game averages of 0.78, 0.71 and 0.73. After his poor playoffs and weak final month of last season, I had him pegged for a down year and the beginning of his career decline.

Ilya Samsonov came off a shutout and Quality Start to post an RBS – he gave up four goals on 20 shots. Heading in, he had five QS in his last six games. It was the third time this season he was given two straight starts and he's lost two of those games. The Caps will lean towards him, obviously, over Vitek Vanecek in terms of their goalie of the future. But he needs to stay healthy and he needs to show he can handle bigger workloads. The most games he has appeared in for a single season, in his career at any level, is 37. Vanecek not much better there – his high is 39 (though he's played 38 games three other times).

Alex Ovechkin had eight goals in his first 21 games but has 10 in his last nine. Watch out Auston and Connor!

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John Tortorella must have burst a vein in his forehead. Columbus played a terrible team in the Red Wings on Saturday and Sunday – should have been a pair of easy wins. Instead, they come out on Saturday and get outshot 16-5 in the first period. Then on Sunday they get outshot 21-11 in the first two periods. Combined, the Blue Jackets were hammered 7-2 over the two losses.

Patrik Laine? He played an average of 14:50 in each of those games (and was minus-4 combined). The one-dimensional Laine needs to be spoon fed his minutes by a charitable coach. If that happens, then he's a 40-goal guy. They were doing that for him in Winnipeg. It was still a good trade, just for the Jack Roslovic part. But you had to know that Torts and Laine won't mix. Laine now has just four points in his last 16 games. One goal! If you haven't gotten rid of him the day he left Winnipeg…seriously, you should get on that. Fantasy value dropping by the hour.

Don't blame Elvis Merzlikins for those losses. He posted a Quality Start in each of them.

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Calvin Pickard grabbed both wins for Detroit! Both were Quality Starts. With the Wings not tipping their hand as to how long Jonathan Bernier (leg injury) is out, it's difficult to say if Pickard makes a good one-week grab. Safer that you don't bother, unless you have the gambling itch…

Robby Fabbri, who had a hat trick 10 days ago, now has points in three straight. He has nine points in his last 10 games. During that run his ice time has jumped by nearly 2.5 minutes. Sunday he played with Dylan Larkin and Filip Zadina, while Anthony Mantha moved to bobby Ryan and Vladislav Namestnikov.

Filip Hronek now has 10 points in his last 10 games.

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Mike Hoffman was made a healthy scratch by the Blues. The move didn't work as the Blues continued to flounder. Jordan Binnington now has just one win since February 20.

Here are Binnington's numbers since then: 1-7-3, 3.23, 0.884 and 38.5 QS%

Binnington's numbers since signing a six-year contract: 1-4-2, 2.99, 0.887, 28.6 QS%

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Line combinations without Hoffman in the lineup…

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
13:2324.1DAVID PERRON – SCHENN – ROBERT THOMAS01-17653.815962.5
13:0223.4RYAN O’REILLY – JADEN SCHWARTZ – TARASENKO10111378.613861.9
9:2016.8TYLER BOZAK – JORDAN KYROU – ZACH SANFORD01-13442.97943.8
6:5312.4KYLE CLIFFORD – DE LA ROSE – SAMMY BLAIS0006366.79375.0

Vladimir Tarasenko did pick up a pair of points in the game. Head in, he had just a point in six games. What's promising is that he has 17 SOG in the last three games. Shoulder seems to be doing fine.

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The Ducks were without Jamie Drysdale, who suffered a minor injury the prior game. From what I gather, he was close (considered ready, even) but I think they were playing it cautious with their prized prospect. Oddly enough, the Ducks also scratched Trevor Zegras. Technically he wasn't scratched, but was sent down to the TS – same difference. Not sure why they feel the need to rest him every few games like this… again, likely playing it safe with their future.

John Gibson is day-to-day with a UBI so the Ducks started Anthony Stolarz, who picked up the win and the QS. I've always liked Stolarz, in terms of talent. But injuries really decimated his chances during those key goalie years (age 23, 24, 25). Now that he's 27, it's probably too late for him to make his mark. But maybe he can show enough to become a future backup.

Rickard Rakell left the game after this accidental fall:

It's a head injury, which is never a good thing.

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Mackenzie Blackwood bounced back from a weaker start from Thursday to pull off the 40-save shutout Sunday. He's on fire right now (other than that one weaker start). Last five games: 4-1-0, 2.00, 0.940, 80% QS.

This is how close Boston came to tying the game:

And that one millimeter gave Blackwood owners the shutout and big points, perhaps winning some weeks in head-to-head play.

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I won't show you the Aaron Ekblad injury because it's too horrible to watch. I don't like seeing those, honestly can't watch and haven't watched a single replay. But he's out "longer term" and honestly I think Florida just needs to hope that he can make it for the end of the first round of the playoffs.

So what does this mean in fantasy hockey? Well, Mackenzie Weegar was having a hell of a season. And so was Ekblad. They were partners. After Ekblad left the game, Weegar was shuffled around between Riley Stillman, Gustav Forsling and Markus Nutivaara! Not exactly household names in fantasy hockey. I think Weegar's production for this year is toast.

As for Keith Yandle – while his ice time didn't jump after the injury, it certainly bodes well for his not getting scratched or getting his ice time cut. He played just 9:21 on Saturday, and I can't help but think it was going to be similar on Sunday but ended up 14:45. He's being used strictly on the power play, seeing 5:11 PPTOI Sunday.

Possible Ekblad replacements that 'may' be on the waiver wire (likely not, but you never know): Nick Leddy (six points in his last six games), Alec Martinez (five in six), Justin Schultz (five in six),

And some longer shots here, if the above are gone in your league: Noah Hanifin (five in seven), Jared Spurgeon (four in six), Brandon Montour (four in his last six).

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With Aleksander Barkov and Patric Hornqvist sidelined, the Panthers are a Jonathan Huberdeau/Sergei Bobrovsky injuries away from icing an AHL team.

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Viktor Arvidsson I think makes a solid buy low option right now. He's shooting 3.2 per game, which is close to what he does throughout his career (and a full shot per game higher than last year's bad season). But his S% is just 4.3% when is usually up around 11-12%. His 5on5 S% is also a near-career-low 6.7%. He has three points in his last two games playing with Ryan Johansson and Eeli Tolvanen.

Pius Suter is on a four-game points streak for Chicago. Colliton was trying to take him off the Patrick Kane/Alex DeBrincat line and spread out the offense, but the team needed goals and Suter was put back on that line and picked up two assists almost right away. But initially, Colliton had Kane out there with Kirby Dach and Mattias Janmark.

Chicago has three wins and eight losses in their last 11 games, and they just lost a pair to Nashville – and the Preds have now caught them for a playoff spot. This certainly impacts who is available for the trade deadline. Maybe the Preds don't trade Mikael Granlund and Mattias Ekholm after all…

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Speaking of the Preds, they signed college star defenseman David Farrance to an ELC. Farrance, who was their third-round pick in 2017, tallied 59 points in his last 45 NCAA games for Boston University. We got his fantasy scouting profile here. How much he plays for the Preds this year obviously depends on the success of the team and whether or not they move Ekholm. But his long-term potential is very good.

The Leafs signed college UFA center Alex Steeves. He's 21, so the team will see how he does over the next two years with the Marlies.

And by now I'm sure you all heard that the Habs signed Cole Caufield. I can't help but think Johnny Gaudreau here, for obvious reasons, though Caufield is more of a sniper. Will his impact be immediate? I tend to lean 'no' because he's a smaller player, but his skill level is through the roof. Gaudreau showed that he wouldn't be delayed and he had 64 points as a rookie. I can see Caufield doing something close to that – I just wouldn't put big money on it.

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The NHL announced schedule changes that pushes the end of the season back from May 8 to May 11. This will push the playoffs back from May 11 to…presumably May 14. Just FYI.

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See you next Monday.

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