Top 10 Overhyped 25-and-Under Players

Tom Collins

2021-03-29

By Tom Collins

One of the more difficult things for any fantasy general manager is to try to sort through the publicity and figure out which players are overhyped.

This is important as it prevents you from overpaying or overdrafting players who won't be able to meet expectations. It's also great if you already own these players as it means you can charge a premium in trades.

In a world where fantasy GMs are always looking for the next big thing, it's usually the younger players that are overhyped. A 22-year-old player many expect will to score 70 points next season will have more implied value than a 32-year-old expected to do the same thing, even though they're both expected to have the same production.

With that in mind, below are 10 players who are 25 years old or younger who are overhyped. This doesn't mean that they'll never reach their potential; it's just that they're given way more credit for that potential than they should.

10. Aaron Ekblad (written before Ekblad's terrible injury Sunday)

Ekblad is the most veteran player on this list as he's been in the league for seven years. While he's putting up points the way we always wanted him to and getting the power-play usage we always expected, it's time to admit that he may never be a top fantasy defenseman in many fantasy leagues. He's not going to be a Cale Makar, John Carlson or Quinn Hughes, putting up near point-per-game seasons. He's also not going to be like Jeff Petry, who will flirt with 50 points while also dishing out 150-plus hits and 100-plus blocked shots. He reminds me of Ryan Suter, a steady dependable defenseman who will never be a player that screams fantasy stud.

9. Anthony Beauvillier

Each season, Beauvillier is a sexy pick as a sleeper breakout candidate. I have to admit I was a passenger on the overhype train for Beauvillier after last year's postseason when he posted nine goals, 14 points and 67 shots in 22 games. While he's missed nine games this year with a lower-body injury, 11 points in 26 games is a major setback, especially considering he brings nothing else to the table to help your fantasy squad. Not only has he never put up a 50-point season, he's never been on pace for a 50-point season. Eventually, he's going to get passed over by players who can produce. Stop believing the hype each preseason and admit that he may never reach 50 points.

8. Timo Meier

There was a lot of excitement about Meier after the 2018-19 season when he had 30 goals, 66 points, 250 shots and 99 hits. Many fantasy general managers were hoping that he would be the next great power forward. However, he has regressed over the past two campaigns. His points-per-game and shots-per-game marks have dropped. He's not on the top power-play unit, his ice time is down about 1:30 from last year and he's only averaging 1.5 hits per game. Maybe this is a player that needs to reach the 400-game threshold before he shines, but there's nothing to suggest that we're going to be seeing improvements anytime soon.

7. Zach Werenski

I was in discussions last week with a fellow GM in my points-only keeper league. He has Darnell Nurse, Keith Yandle, Brent Burns, Rasmus Andersson and Jakob Chychrun on his squad, but he cited Werenski as his best defenseman, which honestly threw me for a loop. Sure, he's okay, but it's not as if he's dominated the fantasy landscape. He seems to be a steady 40-point producer who can occasionally reach the 50-point mark. In multi-cat leagues, he doesn't shoot, hit, block shots or pick up a ton of power-play points. He's a serviceable fantasy player, but that's pretty much it.

6. Nick Suzuki

It's going to be tough to gauge Suzuki's potential simply because he plays in Montreal. Anyone playing in Montreal or Toronto will be overhyped, but it's especially tough in Montreal. While some believe Suzuki can reach 70 points, it's difficult to do on a team that doesn't have a top unit at even strength or on the power play. This is still a team that decides to start overtime with Phillip Danault, Joel Armia and Paul Byron. They have six forwards that average between 1:50 and 2:25 of power-play time per game (strangely enough, neither Jesperi Kotkaniemi nor Josh Anderson are on that list). The Habs have had only one player reach 70 points since the 2010-11 season, and that was Max Domi in 2018-19 when he posted a surprising 72. As long as this team believes in rolling four lines almost equally, it's going to be problematic for any player to reach 70.

5. Robert Thomas

This is the part of the column where I remind readers that things can change. Each season, I keep seeing stories on how this will be his year, he'll surprise everyone and have a major breakthrough season. However, he's still buried in the lineup, and I don't like the fact that he is hesitant to shoot the puck. His career high is 87 shots, but this year he's averaging one shot every two games. He doesn't hit and can't win faceoffs. Maybe one day he'll turn into a valuable contributor, but it appears that if he can't put up points, he's useless in many fantasy leagues.

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4. Kevin Fiala

It's starting to look like last year's hot streak may have been a fluke. He finished the season with 53 points in 56 games, and many fantasy general managers thought he had finally arrived. This year, he has 15 points in 29 games, which would be a 42-point pace over 82 games. Let's put it another way. If you look at his last four seasons but exclude last year, his average points-per-game is 0.53, or 44 points over an 82-game season.

3. Sam Reinhart

At 25 years old, Reinhart just makes this list, but it's time to stop treating this guy as anyone that should even be near the top line. Despite playing almost exclusively with Jack Eichel over the years, he's never been a point-per-game player. Only once has he ever had an 82-game pace of at least 60 points. That's unacceptable in fantasy, considering his linemates, ice time and power-play time. He's always been a negative player when it comes to plus/minus, doesn't hit, averages a little more than two shots per game and doesn't get enough power-play points. He's now in his sixth season. What else does he need to do to prove that he's not worth anywhere near where you're drafting him in one-year leagues?

2. Thomas Chabot

I've been reading quite a bit lately about Jake Sanderson, the prospect selected fifth overall by the Senators last draft, and there's often a familiar refrain: He'll be on the second power-play unit as long as Chabot is in Ottawa. Why do people think that way? It's not as if Chabot is a great power-play producer. He has four power-play points this year and had 11 last year. Sure, Ottawa has an awful power play, but maybe Chabot is one of the reasons the power play is so dreadful.

Since the start of the 2019-20 season and going into Sunday evening's games, 65 active defensemen have played a minimum of 50 games and averaged at least 1:30 a night on the power-play. Of those 65 players, Chabot is eighth in average power-play time per game at 3:24. He's on the ice for 66.7 per cent of Ottawa's power-play minutes, which is the ninth-highest percentage.

However, he is tied for 37th in power-play points with 15. And despite all the ice time, he is 63rd in both power-play points per 60 minutes of power-play time and shots per 60 power-play minutes. Despite heaps of time with the man advantage, he's not effective and simply doesn't produce in that situation. Don't be surprised if a younger player usurps him within a couple of years, and don't overrate him because of his power-play minutes.

1. Elias Pettersson

I've said before that Pettersson is overhyped in fantasy. In October 2019, I had a fellow GM in a points-only pool offer me Nick Suzuki plus every draft pick he owned (including two first rounders) for Pettersson. I accepted the deal, even though others say I was foolish to do so. I just don't see what the big deal is about the Canucks forward. Sure, he's an exciting player and a lot of fun to watch, but last I checked, there isn't a fantasy hockey category labelled "exciting player." Are you prepared to say he's a top-10 or top-20 fantasy asset? Probably not, but that's how a lot of people treat him. I'm not saying he won't be great, but although the shine has come off a little this season, he's definitely overhyped.

Follow Tom Collins on Twitter – @DH_newfcollins

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