Ramblings: Updates on Eichel and Pietrangelo; Dach and Ekblad; Tolvanen – March 30

Michael Clifford

2021-03-30

Not a significant update on the Jack Eichel end of things, but the Sabres still seem optimistic that he'll return before the end of the season. Not that it'd change anything with regards to their fortunes this season, but seeing a player of that level of importance healthy on the ice can be a nice little boost for a fanbase that surely needs it.

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Hey a quick Alex Pietrangelo update:

That he's even skating with scratches right now is a good sign. There is no official word from the team but from my experience, once a player gets to this point, it won't be long until he's back in.

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A fairly important caveat to Canadian provinces cutting the 14-day quarantine to seven days as it pertains to Montreal, specifically:

For the non-French readers, Eric Staal and Cole Caufield will do a 7-day quarantine, and then another 7-day quarantine, but during that second stretch, they're allowed to practice/play with the team. I am pretty happy that the quarantine was cut from 14 days to seven days, but the fact that the second half is still called a "quarantine" while they're allowed to interact with other people probably explains why a lot of pandemic messaging has been confusing: words don't seem to have the same definition they did five years ago. Or any definition, for that matter.

Anyway, I wouldn't hold my breath about Caufield. I doubt he gets much significant time with the big club and is starting in the AHL. As for Staal, well, I guess it depends when they can get Jesperi Kotkaniemi back (and he was taken off the COVID list on Monday).

One thing I don't want to hear about Caufield: he's too small. He is no smaller than Alex DeBrincat and that guy has averaged 32 goals/82 games for his career thus far.

The caveat with Caufield is that he's going to a Habs team that spreads out their ice time. That started under Claude Julien and has continued under the new coaching regime, as no forward is averaging 19 minutes a game in the month of March, and only one guy (Nick Suzuki) is over 18 minutes a game. Were Caufield to be in the lineup sometime soon, it's hard to see him getting more than 14-15 minutes. At the best, I think something like what Oliver Wahlstrom is doing this year – 9 goals and 16 points in 29 games – isn't a bad comparison.

I am a big Caufield fan and think he will help the Habs, I just wouldn't hold my breath that he ever gets the 20+ minutes a night DeBrincat is getting this year. Not until there's a whole new coaching staff in place.

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Tyler Toffoli is expected to return to practice today for the Habs but will not be playing. That he’s back practicing is good news, though, and it bodes well for a swift return.

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Dylan Cozens took a hard hit on Monday night and looked to be favouring his left arm as he left the ice. He did not return to the game. We will get an update later but it sure didn’t look good.

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After a quick overtime on Saturday night where Auston Matthews scored less than a minute in to lift the Leafs to victory, the Oilers returned the favour on Monday night. Fewer than 20 seconds into the extra frame, Darnell Nurse scored on a 2-on-1 with Connor McDavid to give the Oilers a 3-2 win.

Mitch Marner and Matthews both scored for the Leafs. Matthews in particular was on a wired wrist shot so maybe he's starting to feel a bit better.

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The Sabres blew a 3-0 third-period lead to the Flyers only to lose 4-3 in overtime. For a team that has gone through it as much as Buffalo has over the last couple months, this was particularly gutting.

Ivan Provorov scored the OT winner after assisting on the game-tying goal with 90 seconds left. Claude Giroux had a goal and an assist in this contest.

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Tristan Jarry was injured in Pittsburgh's 2-1 win over the New York Islanders and did not return to the game. It could be the Casey DeSmith show here soon.

John Marino picked up a pair of assists in this one to give him three points in four games. After a really bad start to the season, maybe he's starting to heat up a bit.

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A couple big news/injury items from the weekend that I wanted to touch on.

Before we get to all that, just brief news on Ekblad: he will miss the remainder of the season due to surgery on a left leg fracture. All the best to him on his road to recovery, as they said it would take about 12 weeks.

First, Kirby Dach returned to the Chicago lineup. Remember that when he broke his wrist at the end of December, it was a 4- to 5-month timeline we were initially given. Five months from the end of December would have kept him out for the season, barring a deep playoff run, while four months would put him back sometime near the end of the regular season. He has returned a full month earlier than even the optimistic timelines, which is great news all around.

We probably need to give him time to get up to speed. Him being ahead of schedule is great, but I wonder what kind of game shape, if any, he's in. He is a young guy so maybe he won't need 10-15 games like some older players seemed to have needed earlier in the year.

I also want to temper expectations a bit here. Dach has not been a big shooter at any point of his career: 1.6 shots/game last year, 1.8 shots per game in the playoffs, and two shots per game so far this year. It is not to say he won't be able to develop into a scorer at some point, but I just don't think it'll be right now. Beyond that, he doesn't hit and doesn't bring much for peripherals, especially considering his typically-bad faceoff percentage. Dach is one of those guys who is considerably better as a real-world player than he is in fantasy, at least right now, provided you don't play in a league that has corsi-relative ratings as a category.

A few people reached out to me to ask about what to do with Dach. Thinking about it, my answer is roughly something like this: if you wouldn't roster Ryan Johansen, you probably shouldn't roster Kirby Dach.

Second, that brutal injury to Aaron Ekblad. Just want to say I hope he recovers as quickly as possible. Those are just terrible injuries to see, and no player should have to endure them even though some inevitably will.

The reason beyond just the injury itself that I feel this is a brutal break is Ekblad had really turned himself into a true number-1 defenceman. Remember that early in his career, he was helped along a lot by Brian Campbell (from HockeyViz):

Once Campbell left, Ekblad fell apart in his own zone and it was a few years before he recovered. This is from a couple seasons after Campbell left, which was carried the theme forward from the first season with Campbell – declining defensive impacts:

I won't keep inundating with more charts, but things have improved markedly over the last couple years. He has been a positive play-driver offensively and a positive impact defensively. What is more is when looking at shot charts allowed when he and MacKenzie Weegar are on the ice, Ekblad's side seems to be cleaner than Weegar's. I would have no problem believing he's been carrying that pair for a couple years to some degree.

The Panthers are in a world of hurt in the short term. The bright side is they're likely far enough ahead to not worry about choking away a playoff spot; they basically just need a point-per-game pace from their final 21 games to get a postseason appearance. But they are still missing Barkov in the short-term and will be without Ekblad for a while, so it could be a real rough stretch for the Panthers coming up soon. The bright side is their next four games are against Detroit and Columbus, so they have an easy stretch in which to get Barkov back into the fold.

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I am not sure exactly what Eeli Tolvanen will be at the NHL level but one thing that is drawing me to him is his finishing ability. Not that it's a huge surprise – our own Dobber Prospects profile illuminates his shot and his release as two of his top qualities. However, there is always a difference between doing well at lower levels and having it translate to the NHL.

In 34 career games, Tolvanen has nine goals in 34 contests, but he's taking just 1.6 shots per game. That is not near enough. I do think that's something that climbs as he ages, though. He has more goals than assists in his AHL career (36 to 35) and landed over three shots per game in the AHL last year. He has been playing with Filip Forsberg a lot, and Forsberg tends to gobble up a lot of shots. Either way, Tolvanen is at least taking a lot of shots from below the dot:

That tells me there are a lot of cross-ice passes that Tolvanen is getting a stick on. We would like to see more centred shots but this isn't a bad spray chart.

You are probably going to see Nashville be very patient with him and maybe even Tomasino. This is a franchise that just got burned on the Fiala/Granlund trade and probably won't be quick to pull the trigger on another trade with a good young player who struggles briefly. I am excited for Tolvanen's future, but that future is entwined with potential Forsberg/Arvidsson trades. He may not have much talent around him for long, particularly among forwards.

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