Between the shortened season and flat cap, predicting player contract values has become more difficult. There are internal salary caps on higher budget teams that didn't exist before. Players are still looking for fair market value. Strange times are still upon us.

Some of the most intriguing expiring contracts are those of up-and-coming restricted free agents (RFA). In November, Alex Maclean wrote about the high profile RFA's here. Instead of re-hashing those players I'll dive into other players that are set to become RFA's this summer.  I will also be referring to Alex's free agent salary predictions here. All references to predicted salaries below will be based on that list.

Tyler Bertuzzi – Detroit Red Wings ($1.4M AAV, Age: 26)

What a horrible time for Bertuzzi to lose most of his season (if not the rest of it) to injury. After two almost identical seasons of 47 and 48 points, he sat on 201 games played entering 2020-21. Right smack-dab on top of his breakout threshold. He started with 7 points in his first 9 games before suffering an upper body injury and spending two months and counting on injured reserve.

Other than playing for a porously bad Red Wings team, the stars seemed to be alignd for Bertuzzi to have a breakout campaign and set himself up for a nice pay raise. Alex's projection model estimated his next contract at $3.182M. I think this is a real close to what Bertuzzi will receive, injury be damned. He is set to become an unrestricted free agent at the end of 2021-22, so the term on this will be really interesting.

I can see him willing to sign a two-year deal for $3.2M. I can also see him wanting to stay in Detroit to see this rebuild through and sign for four or five years at closer to $4.5M.  Whichever way this plays out Bertuzzi will remain a good value deal in cap leagues. It's just a matter of how good.

Kevin Fiala – Minnesota Wild ($3M AAV, Age: 24)

It was impossible for Fiala to live up to the hype built around him this past off-season. His production is a far cry from pre-season predictions. Most predictions had Fiala between 45 and 55 points this year. A point-per-game run to the end of season would leave Fiala with 38 points.

Even with lower-than-expected production Fiala remains an integral piece of Minnesota's top six moving forward. Only Kirill Kaprisov & Marco Rossi offer skill sets superior to Fiala in the Wild's top six.

His next contract is predicted to be $5.6M. If he remains status quo in terms of production, he is likely shaving tens of thousands of dollars off of his next deal.  The Wild will want to lock up years of unrestricted free agency, depending on how many years they can scoop we could see his cap hit rise above $5.6M. If he opts for a shorter deal to walk at age 27, he may sign for under $5M.

Looking to next year, Fiala should be in line for a bounce back season. I still think expecting close to point-per-game production is too much for Fiala to achieve. That said, he's better than his current .57 point-per-game average. He should land in a solid 65- to 75-point production level starting next year.

If I am looking ahead to next season rather than the playoffs, this is a player I am looking to acquire as a buy-low right now. I can see Fiala coming in slightly below predicted cap hit.

Jakub Vrana, Washington Capitals ($3.35M, Age: 25)

Can we just mirror most of what I just wrote about Fiala? They both came into this year with high expectations. Vrana, rightly tempered due to the veteran depth playing in front of him.

He holds a similar ceiling as Fiala and is having a similar season. Vrana very well may find himself pressured into a shorter team deal. The Capitals have just over $13M in cap space and a second high profile RFA to sign in Ilya Samsonov. Not to mention the greatest player in Capitals history will be an unrestricted free agent. Expect Alex Ovechkin to chew up a significant portion of the available cap space.

Vrana's next contract is predicted at just over $6M per season. The Capitals are going to be very creative in trying to sign him for closer to, if not under $5M. If he signs for $6M it will be a contract of 5-years or longer. A bridge deal could keep him under $5M. Someone on this roster will need to be moved out to balance the signings of Ovechkin, Vrana and Samsonov in the same off-season.  I don't wouldn't want to be Brian McLellan this summer.

Anthony Beauvillier – New York Islanders ($2.1M AAV, Age: 24)

Unless Beauvillier goes off over the last 20 games of the year he has likely played himself out of a longer-term deal and a couple million per season. With eleven points in 27 games, he is having a massively disappointing season.

With a flat cap I suspect we'll see Beauvillier sign another two-year contract with an incremental increase in salary. With a predicted cap hit of $2.39M, his next contract will likely determine if he can hack it as a top six forward or if he is destined to slide into more of a complimentary role.

The playoffs could really be the determining factor on whether Beauvillier can push his contract into that $3M range. If he can put together a strong post-season we might just see the Islanders roll the dice and add term to this deal and hope it pays off in the long run. We've seen it before, where the team will seemingly overpay for the first couple years of a deal in the hopes the player develops into the player they expect them to become and reap the rewards of a value deal in the latter half of the contract.

It will be interesting to see how the Islanders value Beauvillier. He could get a two-year bridge deal just south of $3M or he could sign for up to five years and $4.5M.  This one is hard to predict. Was a solid season to lock in his value be too much to ask for?

Nolan Patrick – Philadelphia Flyers ($874K AAV, Age: 22)

This has bridge deal written all over it. Finally healthy, the long layoff after dealing with migraines did not do a lot for his progress as a player. You can't really practice or exercise when dealing with migraines. It's not like a knee injury you can rehab with skating and the weight room. As a result Patrick has lost a lot of development time.

You don't really need a prediction model to predict his next deal will be short. The prediction model has him signing for $1.14M. I think this one is a bit on the low side and we'll see a two-year deal closer to $1.5 to $2M signed.

Being drafted second overall, as meaningless as it is now, will hold some weight during contract negotiations.

If I could get Patrick cheap enough (a late round pick), and withstand poor production in the first half of 2021-22, I would take a gamble. He could become a real solid depth centre on a fantasy roster. This is the type of player that holds real potential to outplay his next contract and add some real value to a roster based on his expected cap hit, even if it is a bridge deal.

Neal Pionk, Winnipeg Jets ($3M AAV, Age: 25)

I don't think a NHL team has had worse luck in keeping defencemen as the Winnipeg Jets in recent years. They lost Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba and Ben Chariot in the same off-season.

Then they acquired Neal Pionk. No one saw him taking off like he did for the Jets last year. Pionk is again on a 50+ point pace (55 points over 82 games). The salary prediction tool expects Pionk to sign for $4.9M. I don't think the Jets are getting off that cheap.

I don't think the Jets, nor Kevin Cheveldayoff will want to mess around with signing Pionk. Fifty-point defencemen are hard to find.  Don't be surprised to see the Jets go long term on Pionk and lock him up for closer to $5.5M to $6M. Six-years would not surprise me either.  

This is one player I really believe will get more than predicted due recent Jets history with defensemen.

Thatcher Demko, Vancouver Canucks ($1.05M AAV – Age: 25  

*SIGNED – 5 Years, $5M AAV

Count me in the camp that likes this deal for Vancouver and Demko. It makes him the 13^th highest paid goaltender in the NHL. It does leave Braden Holtby at $4.2M as a very expensive backup, but I digress.

Immediate comparable contracts are the recently signed, Jordan Binnington, 27 at six years, $6M, and Jacob Markstrom, 31 and also six years, $6M. For both of them, this is likely the one big contract of their careers. Both should be fading from their primes, especially Markstrom, by the time these deals expire. 

This makes Demko an unrestricted free agent at the age of 30. It lines him up for a second big contract if all goes well. Vancouver locks up Demko throughout the prime of his career at a reasonable cost.

It won't surprise me to see this become a bit of a value deal over the last three years of the contract. I won't go out on a limb and say he has the potential to be a top five goalie in this league – that's not to say however he doesn't have at least one top five goalie season in him before this contract expires. Jim Benning will need to expunge this roster of bad contracts (this includes ceasing to sign future horrible deals – Tyler Myers included) and build a full roster in front of him. 

Demko is a strong hold or acquire in all cap formats after signing this deal.

As a side note, I fully expect the Canucks to do everything they can to stagger the contract expirations of Quinn Hughes and Elias Pettersson from Demko (2025-26), Bo Horvat (2022-23) and Brock Boeser (2021-22). That said, Hughes and Pettersson have the same agent. One should expect their agent to push for eerily similar deals in length and value. I'm often very critical of Benning, but getting Demko signed in season so he can focus on negotiating those two deals cannot be seen as anything but a massive victory for him and this team. With the all the dead salary in Vancouver I still do not envy the task that sits before Benning. Yikes.

All stats were pulled from frozentools.com and all contract information was pulled from capfriendly.com.

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