Saturday’s Picks: Habs at Home

Flip Livingstone

2021-04-03

With just over a month of the NHL schedule left to be played, we are winding down the last few Saturdays of picks here at Dobber Hockey (stayed tuned for playoff predictions and picks, of course). Let's not waste too much time in the preamble and get right down to business.

Last week was my worst of the year, no dodging that bullet, so apologies for the 2-4 showing. Not all is lost, though, with some time to still finish the campaign strong and stack a bit more cash in the pocketbook.

There is no denying the COVID-19 situation in Vancouver is growing more concerning by the day, with a number of Canucks staff and players dealing with the virus. The impacts of the outbreak with Canucks could loom large come the end of the season in terms of scheduling, but for now, let's focus on the games we can wager on and wish Vancouver well in a speedy recovery.

On to today's board that features three afternoon matchups and eight evening games for our wagering entertainment. Good luck!

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2021 record:

Gold: 4-4

Silver: 5-3
Bronze: 4-4

Side bets: 10-14

Overall: 23-25

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Gold Pick
Ottawa Senators @ Montreal Canadiens – Pick: Canadiens

As a well-documented Habs hater, you likely already know that it pains me every time I have to give Montreal credit for playing well. Well, this is another one of those times, as the Canadiens seem to have turned the page over the past two weeks. Now, playing the Vancouver Canucks and Ottawa Senators will do that for most clubs, but Montreal is playing with more jump and starting games strong, producing wins in three in a row.

Aside from the recent resurgence, the Canadiens are sitting in a very advantageous position in terms of schedule and standings. Montreal holds four or five games in-hand on the entire North Division while also currently owning a six-point cushion on the Canucks for the fourth and final divisional playoff spot. It might be a bit bold as to say the Habs control their own destiny, but when you think about it for a minute, that really isn't much of a stretch. A few more wins in a row combined with their games in-hand, and Montreal's postseason picture starts to become pretty clear.

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The book is out on Ottawa, with the Sens obviously being at least a year or two from forming as a regular season or playoff threat and they struggle on the road (1-7 over their last 8 games away from home). Combine that with the prime positioning Montreal currently finds itself in and I really love this spot for a big Habs win on home ice. Fingers crossed 'Scary Carey' doesn't show up and allow a few crappers early, but I still like Montreal to roll in this one for my Gold play of the week.

Silver Pick
Philadelphia Flyers @ New York Islanders – Pick: Islanders

If you were lucky enough to be watching the Islanders completely blowout the Washington Capitals on Thursday night, you were also blessed to witness Mathew Barzal submit his case as one of the best young centermen in the game. Seriously impressive stuff from the budding 23-year-old superstar.

Barzal's five-point night and a big win against the Caps felt like a statement/turning point-type game for a streaky Islanders team still getting used to life without captain and top forward Anders Lee. Straight up, the Islanders are a tough team to play against at both ends of the rink, and it's that commitment to playing complete hockey that has Barry Trotz's crew only two points back of the division lead.

On the other hand, you have the Flyers and a seemingly 20-year-long goalie fiasco that has yet again reared its ugly head with Carter Hart's unexplainably bad play. Yet again goaltending and poor defense have been Philly's undoing, as the Flyers have allowed the second-most goals in the NHL this season at 127 – to put that into perspective, only the Senators have allowed more.

New York held Philadelphia to only two goals across their last 120 minutes of action against each other, which produced two wins for the Isles in back-to-back fashion a few weeks ago, so we know New York can take it to the Flyers. I see that happening again tonight. Islanders take this one for my Silver Pick.

Bronze Pick
New York Rangers @ Buffalo Sabres – Pick: Rangers

I really don't think I need to say too much here to convince you to take New York, but here we go. We all knew the Sabres' disgusting 18-game winless streak was bound to end sometime, but does anyone else get the feeling they might just go on another long losing skid to round out the year? Maybe it's just me or the fact the team's roster resembles that of a top KHL or AHL team right now, but I really don't see the harm in simply betting against Buffalo night in and night out until things change at every level with this organization. They are just THAT bad.

As for the upstart Rangers, what's not to like about this roster? Young superstar-type talent at every position and an elite top-six forward group that boasts the likes of Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, and Pavel Buchnevich, among others. When that top-six group gets going in the offensive end, the Rangers are a very hard team to keep up with, and I expect New York's top-two lines to have a field day against the hapless Sabres tonight.

It should be noted how heavily the Rangers are favored in terms of odds, so make sure you shop around a bit before puck drop to get a decent price, and don't be shy about laying a wager on the puckline taking the Blueshirts by 1.5.

Side Bets

Columbus Blue Jackets @ Florida Panthers – Pick: Panthers

St. Louis Blues @ Colorado Avalanche (Over/Under 5.5) – Pick: Over

Minnesota Wild @ Vegas Golden Knights – Pick: Wild

Flip Livingstone is a former NHL writer for theScore with past experience at such outlets as Narcity Media, Postmedia, and Hockey Night in Canada. You can follow him on Twitter @FlipLivingstone and @Flips_Picks.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12 DET vs TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12 BUF vs CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12 CBJ vs BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12 N.J vs CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12 DAL vs MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12 STL vs NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12 UTA vs COL
Dec 27 - 22:12 S.J vs VGK

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
KIRILL MARCHENKO CBJ
DYLAN HOLLOWAY STL
DMITRI VORONKOV CBJ
LUKE HUGHES N.J
MATT CORONATO CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
JOHN GIBSON ANA
JET GREAVES CBJ

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency WSH Players
19.4 TOM WILSON DYLAN STROME ANDREW MANGIAPANE
14.8 ALIAKSEI PROTAS CONNOR MCMICHAEL PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS
8.6 TAYLOR RADDYSH BRANDON DUHAIME NIC DOWD

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