Daily Fantasy Saturday: Zibanejad is Back and Ready to Stack

Stephen Dotzel

2021-04-03

The calendars have turned to April and depending on your outlook, this could either be the best or the worst time to be playing NHL DFS. The MLB season has just kicked off and MLB DFS is the new, cool kid on the block. For many fantasy players that means leaving the NHL in the rearview mirror and shifting their focus to baseball. DraftKings anticipated this and even though it's only been a few days, if you've been playing NHL consistently you have immediately noticed the contests are now smaller both in terms of prize pools and entries. Not to mention, the casual player is probably no longer playing NHL so the only ones left are those who likely have a better understanding of the game itself and are probably "better" NHL DFS players.

This combination of tougher fields and lowered prize pools can be a bit demoralizing at first. However, you can also look at it in a positive light. The reason the prize pools are smaller are because the contests themselves are smaller, meaning for the most part the entry size has been cut. The good thing about smaller contests is that they're easier to win. I think everyone can agree winning a ten-person contest is easier than winning a 1,000-person contest, which is easier than winning a 10,000-person contest. Now the decreased contest sizes aren't that dramatic but dropping the premier contests from say 10,000 entries to 6,000 or 6,000 to 3,000 is a sizable difference.

DraftKings will still try to keep the first-place payouts a little flashy so I don't know about you, but I would much rather play a $12 single entry contest with 392 people that pays $1,000 to first than a $12 single entry with 980 people that pays $2,000 to first. Or a $4 20 entry max contest with 3,500 people that pays $2,000 to first vs a $4 20 entry max contest with 4,500 people that pays $1,500 to first. These are all examples of some of the older contests compared to some of the ones posted in the last two days, and just so happen to be my two favorite tournaments to enter each slate. I was lucky enough to win that $4 contest on Thursday, and you can check out that winning lineup on my Twitter page @SteveDotzel if you wish.

Without any further ado, let's dive into the slate at hand which is the eight-game main slate starting at 7 pm EST. With any luck, perhaps someone can duplicate that success from Thursday and if you do, I'd love to see it. Here are some suggestions on how I'm handling this slate. All prices are from DraftKings but players and strategies can be applied to FanDuel as well. 

Top Options

NYR – Mika Zibanejad ($8,100), Chris Kreider ($5,900), Artemi Panarin ($8,300), Ryan Strome ($6,500)

Those days of Zibanejad seemingly unable to score a goal no matter what he did feels like ages ago. In the Rangers last nine games Zibanejad has scored nine goals and recorded eight assists, which is much more like the version of him we saw last season. During this stretch, Zibanejad has averaged 22.6 DraftKings points per game, including two of the highest individual scores we've seen all season with 54.5 and 61.6 DraftKings points respectively.

The Sabres have looked better since Linus Ullmark returned to the net, but this is still a team who has lost 19 of their past 20 games. The Rangers will undoubtedly soak up the largest ownership on this slate, so if you think Ullmark can stifle them he makes for a high-risk high reward tournament play. I will have a little just for game theory's sake, but that doesn't mean I'm not playing the Rangers as well. The upside is just too high here.

When stacking Zibanejad, I prefer Kreider over Buchnevich due to the fact Kreider is on the first power play with Zibanejad whereas Buchnevich ($6,400) is not, and he's cheaper. But if you can fit both, that certainly makes a lot of sense. I also like the idea of stacking Zibanejad with Strome and Panarin as a way to differentiate my lineups from most of the other Zibanejad stacks. You can also use Jacob Trouba ($4,000) or Ryan Lindgren ($2,800) in your Rangers stacks to help save a little salary.

COL – Nathan MacKinnon ($9,100), Mikko Rantanen ($7,900), Gabriel Landeskog ($7,600)

With no Matthews, McDavid, or Draisaitl on the slate, MacKinnon finds himself as the premier option at center. Colorado has been scoring like crazy, with four or more goals in nine of the last 11 games! The last time these two teams met, prior to Friday, Colorado put up eight goals but that was all the way back in mid-January.

This is a back-to-back for both teams, so it's possible we see Ville Husso in net for St. Louis here, who has the fifth-worst save percentage among all goalies this year who've played at least ten games. Add to this Colorado is home and it all seems to be lining up for the Avalanche to keep things rolling.

The price tags on this line are tough to handle if you want to do a full stack. MacKinnon is a must, but if you need the savings consider leaving off one of the wingers in favor of the much more affordable Joonas Donskoi ($4,500). Donskoi has recently been bumped to the top power play with this trio and has been remarkably consistent with double digit DraftKings points in eight of his last 11 games.

MTL – Brendan Gallagher ($6,800), Tomas Tatar ($4,700), Phillip Danault ($4,100)

The Danault-Gallagher-Tatar line has looked extremely good since the Canadiens returned from their Covid layoff. In the two games since, this line has scored four goals and picked up seven assists. After a very sluggish start Danault, who is often a fantasy afterthought, has actually recorded multiple points in four of the past five games. That typical lack of offensive production keeps his price low and makes stacking this line very easy to do.

If picking one winger over the other, I want to make sure Gallagher is any Montreal stack I have with this line. He is a much more prolific shooter than Tatar, which gives him a safer floor and has the ability to push 15 DraftKings points even without scoring a goal.

Jeff Petry ($5,900) has cooled off in a big way as of late, failing to record a point in six of the past seven games, but that isn't reflected in his price as he remains one of the most expensive defensemen on the slate. Perhaps that in combination with those recent poor box scores will keep people from playing him. He skates on the power play with both Gallagher and Tatar, so I want to make sure to work him into a stack or two.

NYI – Mathew Barzal ($6,200), Jordan Eberle ($5,100)

For me it never feels good rostering someone coming off a career game, like Barzal is here. With that fresh in everyone's mind he may come in much more heavily owned than he would have otherwise as people are chasing that box score. Even still, it's hard to look past the matchup for the Islanders here.

The Flyers are struggling majorly. In the month of March, they allowed 75 goals in 17 games, or 4.4 per. That's ten more goals allowed than other team in the league during the month, and 20 more than everyone besides Buffalo and Anaheim.

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The Islanders themselves have been spectacular at home this season going 14-1-2 which is the best mark in the league and is where they find themselves tonight. Barzal and Eberle is the stack I want here and I'm fine leaving off whoever winds up being the third forward on this line, as it's been in flux. Instead, I prefer to stack this duo with one of the Isles defensemen. Nick Leddy ($3,700) is my first choice as he's been the one seeing top power play time as of late, but Ryan Pulock ($4,700) and Scott Mayfield ($3,900) are also worthy options.

Quick Hitters

VGK – I got to watch the entire Minnesota – Vegas game on Thursday night while I sweated out my tournament lineups and if not for some stellar goaltending from Cam Talbot the Golden Knights could have easily scored four or five goals. If they can carry over that intensity to Saturday this could be a rare opportunity to roster someone like Max Pacioretty ($8,500) at what could be 5% ownership or less. I'll take my chances here in the tougher than average matchup and pair him up with Mark Stone ($6,600) and potentially Nicolas Roy ($2,600) if I need the savings.

SJ – The Sharks second line of Tomas Hertl ($5,200), Timo Meier ($4,900), and Rudolfs Balcers ($3,100) should be able to avoid Kopitar and company for much of the game, and really shined in Friday's matchup. Hertl has been solid with 11 or more DraftKings points in eight of the last ten games. This trio is split on power plays but that gives you exposure to both Brent Burns ($5,800) and Erik Karlsson ($4,500) who can certainly contribute on offense and are worthy of adding into the stack. 

LA – With Friday night's shutout fresh in everyone's mind I like this as a sneaky spot for the Kings and their top line against a Sharks team who has mostly struggled on the road this season. Anze Kopitar ($6,000), Dustin Brown ($5,400), and Alex Iafallo ($4,600) are a very affordable stack that is fully correlated on the power play. I certainly want Kopitar in any stack and I'd be sure to include at least one of Brown or Iafallo as well, if not both. I'd also add Drew Doughty ($5,200) on to make it either a full four-man stack or a three man less one of the wingers.

Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups

C – Jean-Gabriel Pageau ($4,400), Jaret Anderson-Dolan ($3,900), Filip Chytil ($3,800), Max Domi ($3,000)

W – Donskoi ($4,500), Patrik Laine ($4,500), Reilly Smith ($3,900), Owen Tippett ($3,000), Colin Blackwell ($3,000)

D – Matt Dumba ($4,100), Trouba ($4,000), Matt Roy ($3,500), Brayden McNabb ($2,700)

Goalie Picks

Ilya Sorokin ($7,900)

Igor Shesterkin ($8,500)

Carey Price ($8,400)

Elvis Merzlikins ($7,100)

Jonathan Quick ($7,500)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the Covid protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 18 - 20:03 CGY vs WSH
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