Lining Up: Changes of scenery at the trade deadline

Ryan Sheppard

2021-04-13

It was a pretty slow trade deadline, but that was to be expected. We had one blockbuster at the 11th hour, but for the most part it was boring. However, there were enough fantasy relevant names moved to dive a bit deeper and see where there were positive changes for some players.

Jakub Vrana – Let’s start off with the biggest trade of the day, one that actually came through to the public after the trade deadline had passed. The Detroit Red Wings acquired Jakub Vrana from the Washington Capitals as part of a hefty package for Anthony Mantha. Vrana will come into Detroit and instantly be arguably their best player. Vrana was often lost in the depth chart on Washington and while he would get plenty of time in the top-6 it was next to impossible for him to land on the Capitals top power play unit. With that said, he still managed to put up 24 goals and 47 points two years ago. He really broke out last season with 25 goals and 52 points in just 69 games with the shortened COVID season. Vrana is still just 25 years old and will be expected to carry the offensive load in Detroit. There could be some growing pains as he gets used to the new team and environment, but this is a player that should now be on the top line at even strength and power play, giving him every opportunity to succeed.

Anthony Mantha – On the other side of the blockbuster trade is Anthony Mantha who makes his way to Washington. This is a player who looked average-at-best out there this season. Part of it could just be the toll of being on the Detroit Red Wings in a brutal year, but this is a player that had 16 goals and 38 points in 43 games last season. Additionally, he had 25 goals and 48 points in 67 games two years prior, so it’s not like he has been slumping for anything longer than just this season. Despite the opportunity, it might be simply that Mantha was playing on a bad team with below-average players. His 11.0 shooting percentage is just below his 12.2 percent for his career, so there is no Taylor Hall effect with an absurdly low shooting percentage. So far in his career, his goal totals each season closely mirror his assist totals, so it doesn’t seem like one or the other is really what hurt him this season. I expect a bounce-back of sorts for Mantha in Washington as anywhere he plays in the top-6 will give him some very good line mates. He will likely suffer from the same thing Vrana did in Washington as he is unlikely to see much time on the top power-play unit. However, he skated on the left wing with Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie at his first practice so here is hoping he can stick there as that could be a very good line.

Taylor Hall – I won’t go into all of the reasons Taylor Hall has struggled this season as I touched on that in a previous article. I will however look into how he fits on the Boston Bruins.

At first glance, I didn’t like the fit for Hall here. His playing style doesn’t seem to fit into the Boston scheme and there are a lot of reports out there that Hall nixed some deals so there was a very short list of teams he was interested in going to it seems. Many have questioned Hall’s compete level as of late and it does seem like everywhere he goes it’s a losing environment — Hart Trophy Season excluded. Hall is now on a team with three of the best forwards in the NHL and by the time this article comes out, it may be known who he is playing with, but for now we can only speculate. I would think they go with Patrice Bergeron centering Brad Marchand and Craig Smith and have David Krejci center Taylor Hall and David Pastrnak to have two more balanced lines, rather than stacking the top line. There is also a good chance that Hall plays on the top power play unit, though he's starting on the second unit for now. Without those two situations occurring, Hall really won’t get much of a boost, so we are definitely hoping for that.

Kyle Palmieri – It has been three games since Kyle Palmieri was traded to the New York Islanders, but I am not entirely sure what sort of fantasy impact the NYI/NJ trade is going to have on a player like Palmieri other than the fact that he should be playing with better players now. Palmieri has been having a very disappointing season from an offensive standpoint so hopefully this change of scenery can get him going. Last game was encouraging as Palmieri lined up with Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Oliver Wahlstrom and in the incredibly small sample size of 8:12 at even strength, the trio dominated their opponents 8-1 in shots for an 80 percent Corsi For percentage (CF%). Unfortunately, the New York Islanders insist on playing *checks notes* Matt Martin on the top power play unit, so Palmieri has yet to be able to benefit from that. We will see how the rest of the season plays out for Palmieri but there is very little chance that he produces worse than his 0.5 points per game average that he did on the Devils.

Nick Foligno – This is an interesting one as Nick Foligno could be placed anywhere in the top-9 for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs have Zach Hyman and Alex Galchenyuk as their primary left wingers (though Hyman plays at his best when he is playing right wing), however Hyman has been flipping between the top line with Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner as well as with Pierre Envgall and Ilya Mikheyev on the third line. Galchenyuk was playing with John Tavares and William Nylander and looked great, but since Nylander has been out with a COVID close contact, he has spent some time on the top line with Matthews and Marner and looked fantastic. Foligno is owned in 28 percent of Yahoo leagues so he should be available in yours and he is especially valuable in leagues that count hits. Anyway, this is a very long-winded way of saying if Nick Foligno is in the top-6 on the Leafs he’s probably a must-add, but if he sits on the more defensive third line you can probably ignore him or at least know there will be very little offensive upside to him. He may get some time on the power play as well and with how the Leafs have been going with a more balanced approach when everybody is healthy, he could find himself playing with a couple of the big four.

Jeff Carter – This is the third season in a row in which Jeff Carter has produced at under an 0.5 points per game pace. That is quite troubling. It can sometimes be tough to judge an aging veteran that is playing on a bad team with limited talent around him, but coming to the Pittsburgh Penguins should give him a fantasy boost. The issue is that if Carter cannot get himself beside Sidney Crosby at even strength, he will certainly be a power-play specialist or bust until Evgeni Malkin returns. Once Malkin is back, there is almost no scenario in which Carter doesn’t play with one of Crosby or Malkin so he could see a bit of a short-term fantasy boost. If anything, his perceived value may be higher than his actual value and trading him to a manager thinking they’re getting the 30-plus goal scorer could be the best way to utilize Carter’s new situation.

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Sam Bennett – Seemingly on the block for the last couple seasons, Sam Bennett was finally traded to the Florida Panthers. Bennett’s rookie season is still the best of his six-year career so that is obviously a concern. However, he hasn’t spent too much time in the top six or on the power play, averaging just 1:03 per game with the man advantage over the last three seasons. That is a full 30 seconds less than Milan Lucic of all players. Going to Florida should help boost his confidence and perhaps salvage a bit of his offensive talent that he showed in Juniors. There are some underlying numbers at the individual level that look promising for Bennett. He was second on the Calgary Flames with 8.29 shots per 60 minutes (Shots/60) as well as second with 0.74 individual expected goals per 60 (ixG/60). To put those numbers in a bit more context, Mikko Rantanen (8.29 Shots/60) and Alex DeBrincat (8.28 Shots/60) — two of the top-5 goal scorers — shoot the puck at a similar rate. At the individual level, Bennett’s 0.74 ixG/60 is similar to Bergeron (0.75), Nikolaj Ehlers (0.75) and Evander Kane (0.74). Obviously, the better players are cherry-picked to prove the point, but it just goes to show you that Bennett could really benefit from a change of scenery and increased role.

Nikita Gusev – This will be kept short as it is more of a speculative play here and technically wasn’t even a trade, but he switched teams around the deadline so we’ll toss him here at the end. Nikita Gusev struggled to start in the NHL last season after coming over from the KHL putting up just 12 points in his first 23 games. However, once John Hynes was fired, he managed to put up 32 points in 43 games to finish off the season and there was hope that perhaps things were going to get better. However, Gusev struggled mightily this season with just 5 points in just 20 games that he’s managed to suit up for. The reason why there is optimism is that he put up 82 points in 62 games in the KHL in 2018-2019 which led the league by a whopping 13 points. However, those offensive numbers have not translated well to the NHL. Perhaps a new start in Florida, a team with plenty of offensive-minded players will allow Gusev to put up some better numbers.

*Stats from Natural Stat Trick

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