Ramblings: Trade deadline recap; Iafallo and Laughton extensions; Mete – April 13

Michael Clifford

2021-04-13

Well, it was a trade deadline day.

It certainly wasn't as busy as some other deadline days, but we did have a few deals, most of the guys we thought would go actually did, and the Red Wings swung a monster trade late.

If you want to go through all the individual fantasy angles of players traded, you can view all the pieces here. Dobber did most of them, but there are some from Ian, Alex, and myself.

The one I really want to talk about is, of course, Jakub Vrana.

Anyone who has read my stuff knows I am enamoured with the kid's hockey skills. This has been the case for a while (check the date):

I stayed high on him even as he was in and out of the lineup as a rookie and saw minimal minutes in his second year. Even with just 33 NHL points by the age of 22, I was still buying in. Then, his breakouts came, in the form of 24- and 25-goal seasons, the latter being done in 69 games. But the team has been stingey with his minutes, and now he's somewhere else.

I won't extoll all the virtues of one J. Vrana; I have done that in dozens of articles over nearly a half-dozen years now. Just search his name in our database and you'll see all my articles talking about him. Just know that I truly believe with the right line mates and deployment, he can be a top-10 offensive winger in the league.

The problem, as it always is with anyone in Detroit, is Jeff Blashill. We are currently enduring a season where he refused to play Mantha-Larkin together for any meaningful length of time, both on the PP and at 5-on-5. I am not sure the reason for that, but Blashill is not a fantasy-friendly coach. I like this move for Vrana because he has a clear line to 18 minutes a night with Larkin. I don't like this move for Vrana because his success now hinges on Jeff Blashill succeeding, and that terrifies me.

Regardless, the Wings made a solid move and the Caps get a bona fide top-line winger for the near future. I would say it was good business for both sides. Just please, PLEASE, Jeff, just let Vrana cook. Just… just leave him alone.

*

A couple notable waiver claims, which isn't something we talk about often.

First, the Sens claimed Victor Mete off waivers. He had been put there by the Habs in anticipation of bringing in Jon Merrill, but were obviously hoping to keep him. That didn't work out.

So, what are the Sens getting? Depends who you ask.

I am a Habs fan. As such, I probably have rose-coloured glasses here. I believe Mete still is capable of being a top-4 puck-moving defenceman. He has positive impacts at both ends over the last three seasons, is very good at jumping in the rush and creating controlled entries, but it hasn't translated to big results: his points rate isn't far off from Brett Kulak's and his expected goal share is the lowest among all regular Montreal blue liners the last three years.

He will get a shot in Ottawa, but he's not going into a great situation. The team's rebuild is still fully underway, as evidenced by their likely trip to the Draft Lottery again this year. I have belief in Mete's abilities and this was a great claim by the Sens. I just worry about his supporting cast. Regardless, this is a great bet by Ottawa, and he immediately becomes an everyday player for the team. I just don't think there's much fantasy value here just yet. It will take time.

The other claim of interest is Sami Vatanen. He was claimed off waivers by Dallas. I am not sure there's much fantasy value here. He was a guy that put 35-point seasons up before but that was with heavy power-play usage. He'll be going to a team with Miro Heiskanen, John Klingberg, and Esa Lindell. Without those PP minutes, his point totals crater (as they have the last few years) and he doesn't bring much in peripherals. He could be fine depth in deeper leagues, but he's of no interest in 12-teamers.

Dallas is only six points out with three games in hand, and they're starting to get a bit healthy. I would like to see them go on a nice run here in the next month, but the reality is that it may just be a bit too late.

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The Kings extended Alex Iafallo:

I am fine with this price. At worst, he's shown he can be a capable top-line winger for Anze Kopitar, and that has value in itself. It is a premium slot that the team doesn't need to worry about filling. Now they can focus on the other holes, as well as their prospects.

*

Scott Laughton got a five-year extension worth $3M a season. I like Laughton, but this is a lot of years for a depth piece. He needs to be a middle-6 staple, and succeed, for this to work out. It will be close. He will still have fantasy value as long as he keeps hitting the way he is.  

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The Senators rallied from a 2-0 deficit to take a 4-2 win off the Jets. A pair of goals from Brady Tkachuk powered the way while yes, Connor Brown extended his goal-scoring streak to eight games with the game-tying tally at the end of the first period.

Tkachuk had five shots and six hits, where his fantasy season just continues to roll unabated. I cannot wait until the team around him grows up.

*

Montreal broke Jack Campbell's win streak in a 4-2 win where Tomas Tatar scored the first and final goal of the game, giving him 10 on the year.

Josh Anderson scored his 15th of the year, and he's trailing only Auston Matthews in goals/60 minutes at 5-on-5 this year (Matthews also scored in this one). I remember all the "one goal" jokes from the summer. Anderson has been an absolute beast this year.

*

Patrik Laine scored a goal-of-the-year candidate:

A gentle reminder he’s still an elite offensive talent.

*

The biggest domino for Deadline Day fell in the middle of the night as Taylor Hall was traded from Buffalo to Boston, with a second-round pick and Anders Bjork going the other way. You can read Dobber's take on the trade here.

My take on this trade is two-fold:

  1. This is great value for Boston. Hall, despite his goal-scoring problems, is still a wonderful playmaker who has some finish. He is truly still a first-line winger and getting him for a playoff push for a second-round pick and a spare part is just fine.
  2. I am not sure how much this helps solve Boston's depth-scoring problems.

I say this because Hall is not a goal scorer. Yes, his low shooting percentage this year is very unlucky at 2.3 percent, but he has just one season over 10 percent in the last seven years. He has just one 30-goal season to his name, and it was his Hart Trophy season where he shot 14 percent. From HockeyViz, we can tell he's great at play-driving, but his estimated finishing impact is beyond awful:

Yes, he can help other people score, but he's not a great, or even good, scorer himself.

No problem, right? Boston has guys like Jake DeBrusk and Nick Ritchie who could use a good playmaker. Except Hall probably won't play with them. If we're looking at the depth chart, the second line will probably be Hall-Krejci-Smith. By HockeyViz's same estimated finishing impact, Smith is four percent below average while Krejci is one percent below average. Each of these players on the second line is worse than league average at finishing, so while play-driving is nice, play-finishing is also important, and no one on that line has any. (For that reason, I would probably prefer they go Marchand-Bergeron-Smith and Hall-Krejci-Pastrnak. We will see.)

Which isn't to say they'll be bad! If they're driving a lot of the play, at the least that keeps the puck out of their own end, and that has value in itself. But Boston's problem this year is goal scoring from their depth: with the top line off the ice at 5-on-5, the team is scoring 1.5 goals per 60 minutes. That is not near good enough. Picking up the play-driving is nice, but that line will actively need to contribute offensively. The question – and a valid one – is whether there is enough finishing on that line to outweigh the goals that will come the other way.

This was a necessary trade. Boston is seeing their Cup window run out and this might be their final legitimate run at at title. The trade makes sense and I hope it works out because Hall is an electrifying player when he's at his best. I am just not sure this is the best particualr fit for him. I guess it can't be worse than Buffalo.

*

There is the Jeff Carter trade to discuss as well. Dobber covered his angle here.

This seems to serve a dual purpose. The team clearly needed a 3C for a run this year, with guys like Teddy Blueger not working out and Jared McCann seemingly having more value up the lineup than down. This allows the Penguins to effectively have three lines that can score, and while Carter is not the guy of five years ago, he can probably still score close to a 20-goal pace. That will play just fine on a third line.

The second purpose is give them some cover for Evgeni Malkin. He has just one year left on his deal and he is oft-injured. Whether they leave McCann as the 2C for now or not, they have a guy who can ostensibly be a 2C in a pinch for whenever Malkin is out of the lineup. That is nice security, especially with the team only having to eat $2.6M a year in cap hits.

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