Fantasy Hockey Poll: Fantasy Draft Fallers for 2021-22
Rick Roos
2021-04-21
If you're like me, your fantasy draft(s) feel like they happened a lot longer ago than just a few months. But, that also means enough has happened to reflect and guess where players will be selected for next season, which brings me to this month's poll.
Here's a link to the average overall draft spot for players in Yahoo fantasy hockey drafts for 2020-21. From the top 100, I've identified 20 who are all but assured to be picked later come next year's drafts. Your job is to vote on the ten you think will fall the farthest from where they were picked for 2020-21. I realize not all leagues use Yahoo; but this is still a good barometer. When voting, be sure to take into account factors such as players likely to be traded in the offseason or to sign with another team, those who might be playing for a new coach and/or with new linemates, and who could rebound over the rest of 2020-21, including in the playoffs.
Without further ado though, here are the 20 players – out of the top 100 – that I see as most likely to have the biggest drop in comparison to where they were selected for 2020-21. Why limit it to the top 100? I wanted to focus on highest profile players, each of whom was all but assured to have been drafted in your leagues. Players are listed alphabetically, with their 2020-21 average Yahoo draft position in parenthesis. As a reminder, you should pick the ten players you think will have the biggest drop from where they were picked this season to where they'll be selected for 2021-22.
Sebastian Aho (10.8) – If going by draft position, this was the season where poolies figured Aho would ramp up his production in a major way. Yet here we are with less than a month left in the campaign and he's scoring at a lower rate than last season, when he scored at a lower rate than 2018-19. The question now isn't whether he'll fall, but just how far he'll fall in 2021-22 drafts.
Jordan Binnington (39.0) – Although Binnington has still retained his spot as #1 goalie for St. Louis, that's more due to them not having other viable options than his play "earning" him the role. Chances are the team brings in a more seasoned back-up during the summer. Between that and Binnington's lackluster play, he'll have to wait longer to hear his name called in Yahoo drafts next season.
Brent Burns (52.1) – Here's a case of a player who slipped due to age and concerns he wouldn't be able to bounce back. Sure enough he's even doing worse than last season. It's not difficult to do the math as to how that will mean him being picked later in 2021-22 drafts.
Pavel Francouz (88.7) – This summer it's quite possible Philipp Grubauer is lured away as a UFA. If that happens though, it's difficult to believe a "win now" team like the Avs would turn over the crease to Francouz, who will have as many career regular season starts (31) as number of years old he'll be at the start of the 2021-22 campaign. Beyond that, Francouz looked shaky in last season's playoffs before getting hurt. Chances are he goes much later in drafts, as his shot at being a bona fide starter or 1A seems to have slipped away.
Johnny Gaudreau (47.3) – Like Burns, many felt Gaudreau was good bet to rebound. Instead, he too has fared worse than 2019-20, leading many to feel he peaked early or won't be great again until/unless his ticket out of Calgary is punched. Even if he is traded this offseason, it's difficult to see how folks don't draft him a good bit later than they did for 2020-21.
Taylor Hall (53.5) – If the prospect of Hall playing alongside Jack Eichel only led to Hall being picked at this level, where will he be grabbed after a disappointing season and him set to turn 30 during the 2021-22 campaign? We don't know how low, but rest assured it will be lower even if he stars for – and even signs with – the Bs.
Carter Hart (31.0) – Could Hart become the next young flame to burn out, ala Jocelyn Thibault, Jim Carey or Steve Mason? We won't know for at least a few more seasons. What we do know, however, is poolies will wait until later than 31st overall to grab Hart for 2021-22.
Mike Hoffman (81.2) – What was supposed to be a win-win signing for Hoffman and the Blues turned into a disaster. Although most poolies are astute enough to realize that Hoffman's days of being fantasy relevant are unlikely over, he'll have to do a lot win back their trust before he's drafted this high again.
Anton Khudobin (71.8) – Due to subpar play and the emergence of Jake Oettinger, plus the looming return of Ben Bishop, Khudobin might find himself elsewhere next season, whether on Seattle or another team. No matter what though, his name won't be called until a lot later.
Evgeny Kuznetsov (66.4) – As Kuznetsov gets older, memories of his early splash fade. And with Nicklas Backstrom drinking from the fountain of youth yet again, Kuznetsov will be even less highly regarded next time around on draft day.
Patrik Laine (25.1) – It's a bit unfair to have to make this assessment now, as we don't know yet whether (a) John Tortorella will be retained as coach, or (b) Columbus will bring in a top center to be on the same line as Laine, or (c) Laine gets dealt. Even if any of those things do happen, I still think Laine's draft stock will plummet based on his poor 2020-21.
Evgeni Malkin (28.1) – Another year and another Malkin injury toward the all-important end of the season. Despite Malkin playing much better hockey before getting hurt, we saw for the first time that between his age and all those injuries he might no longer be a great bet to shine while healthy. Or, to put it another way, no chance he gets picked even close to 28th overall for next season given what unfolded in 2020-21.
Timo Meier (85.6) – Sure it doesn't help that Meier plays for San Jose; however, he seems to be getting worse by the year rather than better. With poolies having a "what have you done for me lately" mentality, Meier will be drafted a good bit later for 2021-22 than he was coming into this season.
Elias Pettersson (16.9) – Yes he's been hurt and this season is unlike any other; however, we've reached a point where the whispers of Pettersson being overrated are starting to get louder. He may well end up proving naysayers wrong in due course; however, that won't happen until after he's drafted for 2020-21, where he won't be selected anywhere near 17th overall.
Carey Price (47.5) – The consensus was Price should be able to rebound due to Jake Allen being signed to give Price the rest he supposedly needed to excel again. Fast forward to now, and that sure didn't happen. Turning 34 before next season, and even farther removed from his last elite campaign, Price likely slips significantly in drafts despite his high profile name and team.
Tuukka Rask (32.8) – Even as his percentage of games started shrank over the past few seasons, Rask remained fantasy gold. But this season we started to perhaps see signs his play might be slipping, which wouldn't be too surprising given his age and the minutes he's logged, including in the postseason. If he remains with the Bruins he'll still have lure; however, this is another case where I can't see how he's picked close to this spot when next seasons' drafts occur.
Ilya Samsonov (40.4) – One of the first goalies to land on the COVID list, Samsonov's early season absence gave Vitek Vanacek an opening he's seized. Samsonov is still likely seen as the team's goalie of the future; however, his draft stock will almost assuredly tumble.
Brayden Schenn (73.4) – Always tantalizing, but perpetually disappointing. This season Schenn fared worse than his past several; and between that plus him turning 30 this summer, poolies likely will wait longer to call his name next draft day.
Teuvo Teravainen (45.3) – TT doesn't bring a lot to the table in non-points leagues, which is why I was somewhat surprised to see him picked even this high. After what is shaping up to be his worst season since 2016-17, poolies will push TT down their draft lists for 2021-22.
Mika Zibanejad(16.6) – While a couple of six point games and steady play have helped turn this season from an unmitigated disaster to a mere disappointment, the damage still has been done in terms of how highly regarded Zibanejad will be entering next season. No question people will pump the brakes on drafting him.
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Remember to vote for the ten players you believe will see their average draft position in Yahoo leagues for 2021-22 fall the farthest from what their average position was for 2020-21, as shown in the parenthetical next to their name. By voting for ten, the poll will be more informative than if fewer votes were cast, and this more helpful to poolies. To cast your votes, click here.
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