Ramblings: Spencer Knighted; Roope Hintz at Stardom; Mock Seattle Kraken Draft & More (Apr 21)

Alexander MacLean

2021-04-21

It's a long one today. Lots of thoughts on last night's games, and then just for fun I go through in an entire mock expansion draft(!) to check for possible/probably fantasy ramifications.

Seattle in, grab your coffee, tea, or drink of choice, and let's get Kraken.

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On top of all that, you can also join the FrozenTools community on Discord! Sign-up link "here".

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Mikko Rantanen and P.K. Subban were added to the Covid list. Subban's addition is hopefully just a contact tracing precaution, but Rantanen joining teammates on the least with a few days in between is concerning. If the existing two Colorado games on the schedule were to get pushed back, then the Avalanche and the Blues (their opponent in both games) could both have zero games this week. Hopefully you aren't stacking them (like me with three top Blues forwards in one league). In non-keepers, this is the kind of news that can prompt drastic measures when margins are slim. I'm contemplating cutting Vladimir Tarasenko in one league if things continue like this, but just keep in mind that the Blues already have four games scheduled next week. There's a balance in there somewhere.

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In some very unfortunate but inevitable news, the OHL will not have a season. This year's draft is going to have a lot of gold to mine if you know how to find it (if you do then please let the rest of us and a dozen NHL teams know).

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These were the power play units with Matt Grzelcyk back in the lineup, but Jake DeBrusk ended up factoring in with a minute of man advantage time as well:

PP1: Ritchie-Bergeron-Marchand-Pastrnak-Grzelcyk

PP2: Hall-Krejci-Smith-Reilly-McAvoy

Tuukka Rask posted a relatively easy 31-save shutout. The Bruins now have secondary scoring controlling the possession battle, and their defencemen are healthy. Whoever is in net is a shutout threat every game they play from here on out. Especially in their next two games, which happen to also be against the Sabres.

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Last week Igor Shesterkin was winning some of your fantasy matchups single-handedly. He has arrived, and shouldn't be easy to acquire in any leagues (if he is then do so now – or in the offseason when trading opens). Unfortunately, he allowed a bushel of goals in this one, conceding the victory to Semyon Varlamov. Varlamov has been losing a few more starts to Ilya Sorokin as the season has gone on, and it's likely the two will split starts for the next year or two (Varlamov has two more years on his contract after this one). Sorokin (and Ilya Samsonov for that matter) are the discount options in the summer if you want to get in on a star Russian goalie at a fair price relative to their future value.

Noah Dobson picked up his first point in over five weeks, and is back on the top powerplay. The quarterback on the powerplay has been cycling between Dobson, Ryan Pulock, and Nick Leddy. Good luck guessing who it will be next game, but the PP goal last night may buy Dobson some rope. If he had been dropped in your league during his cold streak, it is worth looking into whether he fits on your roster for the stretch run.

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If I can ask for one matchup in the NHL playoffs, top of my list would be a Carolina/Tampa Bay battle. These are two of the top three teams in the league, and getting this matchup early in the playoffs would make up for what is usually a sloppy and disappointing final. The hockey in the first 1.5 round of NHL playoffs is the best there is.

It was a great sign to see Martin Necas was back in the lineup after being flattened in Monday's game. However, the Canes did lose Brady Skjei. Luckily, they can slide those minute over to Jake Bean and they should be just fine. If Bean does actually soak up some of those extra minutes, then he might be worth a look in points leagues. He's not going to be racking up many worthwhile peripheral stats for you though.

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Max Domi was a healthy scratch for the second straight game. His fantasy value this season is shot, as is the case with most Columbus skaters right now. Where would they be if they weren't playing in John Tortarella's system right now? Well we have one main case study from this season in Pierre-Luc Dubois, however his uninspired start and his reduced deployment in Winnipeg really blurs the numbers. On the flip side of that trade, Jack Roslovic has rocketed up while Patrik Laine has faded to the background. If we go back to last season, Alex Wennberg has seen a slight uptick in his production (0.39 points-per-game to 0.45) in his new home. However, that has to be contextualized by the fact that he is seeing an extra minute of ice time with the Panthers, and starting more of his shifts in the offensive zone. Torts doesn't seem to help fantasy values, but it's not as though players half their expected totals under him. Sometimes we put a little too much bearing on smaller things like who the coach is and what city someone is playing in.

On the other side of the ice, Sam Bennett is thriving. Go pick him up now if he's available. The Ramblings will still be here five minutes from now, Bennett won't be. His line through three games: five goals, 17 PIMs, plus-5, nine shots, and 14 hits. My projections currently have him at a $3.7 million cap hit for next year, but if he can finish off the season on this hot streak, then don't be surprised to see him with a multi-year deal around a $5 million cap hit. There's no reason for the Panthers to separate him and Jonathan Huberdeau (another three points last night), which is good news for both.

The day after his 20th birthday, Spencer Knight skated out for his first NHL start, and looked excellent doing so. He earned the win and only allowed one goal (though a second was called back for offside). He may not see another start this season as the Panthers battle for home ice advantage and only have one back-to-back remaining with none of their matchups being easy ones. He's the goalie of the future, but not the goalie of the present. At best Chris Driedger walks in the offseason and Knight sees 40% of the starts next year behind Sergei Bobrovsky. It's a similar situation to the Islanders duo, just a year behind, and without the same defensive system.

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Mackenzie Blackwood missed the game due to an undisclosed injury. Scott Wedgewood did not fare well in his absence allowing four goals in the first period and being replaced by Aaron Dell for the second. Surprisingly you're better off with Dustin Tokarski if you're really desperate for starts. The Devils were down 6-0 after two periods, but then the youth stormed back outscoring the Pens 6-1 in the third period to make it close. This loss officially eliminated them from playoff contention.

Jeff Carter scored his first goal with the Penguins, assisted by linemate Jared McCann. Carter may be past his prime, but McCann is just in the middle of his. However, McCann's owners may want to sell high this offseason, as this season's breakout appears to be more about some puck luck than McCann himself hitting a new level. He's over a 60-point full-season pace right now despite never before even pacing for 45, and we have had 350 career games to see what he is. If his ice time jumped into the 18-minute range from the current 13-minute mark, then I might have some faith in him keeping these numbers up, but the production is buoyed by McCann racking up numbers while the Penguins deal with injuries. He's a 45-point player that thrives on the powerplay and can go on hot streaks when playing up in the lineup.

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It seems that in the last few days everyone has caught on to just how amazing of a season Roope Hintz is having. He is scoring over a 90-point pace despite drawing in and out of the lineup due to injuries. He's also still 50 games away from his breakout threshold, so this may not just be a blip. Him and Jason Robertson are going to be a duo to own for the next number of years. Robertson managed to notch a couple goals even without Hintz in the lineup.

Neither Hintz nor Miro Heiskanen played last night due to upper body injuries. With Dallas playing for their playoff lives and every point mattering, it must be something a little bit more irksome to be holding the two young guns out.

My opponent in one of my deeper cap leagues added Joel Hanley yesterday afternoon. I own him in another league as a depth minors piece, and he's serviceable as an injury fill-in who will bring a couple of peripheral stats every game. Hanley had been a scratch his last two games for the Stars, but fortunately for the other GM, the Heiskanen injury meant Hanley drew into the lineup and notched an assist. It's that time of year where we don't know if depth guys are playing, AHL guys are getting tryouts, and injuries are piling up. Keep an ear to the ground and make sure your pickups are actually active.

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In case you own a few Detroit players, or if some of their better options are floating around in your free-agent pools, the Red Wings are worth keeping an eye on. The final day of some leagues is May 2nd, and they are part of the only game scheduled that day. The first Sunday in May featuring the Red Wings vs the Lightning is the only day left on the original NHL calendar with a single game.

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The Canucks continued to battle with the Leafs, but they looked tired heading into the latter half of the game, and stressed the fatigue factor during intermission interviews. They may have shown well in this two-game stint against the Leafs, but with 15 games left they’re going to tire quickly. Stacking Ottawa and Calgary players against them may be the better way to go even though the Sens and Flames have fewer games remaining on the schedule. Antoine Roussel and Jayce Hawryluk were also shaken up in the game, so the lineup may be even thinner next game.

Rasmus Sandin played his second game of the season, returning from a broken foot, while Travis Dermott sat as a healthy scratch. Those two would have had to flip-flop back and forth the rest of the way, but Zach Bogosian left with an injury partway through the game and didn’t return. That opens up a slot for both to play on the third pairing. Sandin has the higher ceiling of the two, but 15 minutes of ice time won’t be quite enough for him to really shine.

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Anthony Stolarz has been seeing the brunt of the starts of late, and has been adjusting fairly well. He might be a better option than both Tokarski and Wedgewood, though in the West Division the matchups heavily dictate the comfort level with starting Stolarz.

Alexander Volkov is getting a great audition alongside Ryan Getzlaf. He didn’t get a lot of opportunity with the Lightning, but he has five points in 10 games with the Ducks, and has even seen his ice time and power play opportunities increase of late. If a potential 40-point winger has value in your league next year, he’s worth a look.

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With the Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft now exactly three months away, and the trade deadline done and gone, I wanted to run through team-by-team to see if there are any surefire situations where fantasy managers can get a jump on opportunities.

Anaheim Ducks

The rebuilding Ducks will have a few depth defencemen and young forwards available. This could be an opportunity for someone like Max Jones, Sam Steel, or Jacob Larsson to gain a bigger role, but there's no sure thing here.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes have a glut of pending UFAs, especially on defence, which makes their selections easier. It also means players like Kyle Capobianco, Adin Hill, and Brayden Burke might have an easier time getting into games next year.

That being said, at least one more defenceman will have to be signed for the Coyotes to meet their exposure requirements. Keep an eye on who they sign and who gets that third protection slot on defence behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Jakob Chychrun.

Boston Bruins

The Bruins stand to lose a good player (likely either Nick Ritchie or Jeremy Lauzon), and with a small window left to take advantage of the Patrice Bergeron and Brad Marchand era, I could see them swinging a side deal with Seattle and moving their first for the Kraken to take John Moore or something similar.

Buffalo Sabres

I have had Colin Miller penciled in as the selection from Buffalo for a long time now. He just makes too much sense as the likely best player the Sabres leave unprotected, and as an expansion team veteran that can play at both ends of the ice. Being a UFA at the end of the 2021-22 season isn't a bad thing for Seattle either. It makes him a moveable asset at the deadline, and ensures they would still have cap and roster flexibility. Miller put up career numbers his first year in Vegas, and could be in for a bit of a bump if he lands in Seattle.

Calgary Flames

There are two main questions here: first, do the Flames need to protect a soon-to-be 38-year-old Mark Giordano? Second, does Milan Lucic waive his no-movement clause (NMC)? The options change based on the answers to those two questions, but it does look like losing Mikael Backlund or Dillon Dube is a possibility. Seattle would likely prefer the younger option if he's there for them. It's also possible that they end up drafting a project on defence suck as Oliver Kylington.

It appears that Juuso Valimaki will be exempt from the draft due to missing the entire 2019-20 season with an injury, which is a big win for Calgary.

Carolina Hurricanes

If Dougie Hamilton is not re-signed before the draft, Carolina's protection list becomes infinitely easier to sort out. Ex-NYRs Brady Skjei and Jesper Fast then become the most enticing options likely left available. Skjei has been a multi-cat beast this season, and with some added minutes and responsibility he could see those numbers continue to increase. This would also likely free up some ice for Jake Bean to see his numbers increase next season.

Chicago Blackhawks

Under the assumption that Brent Seabrook waives his NMC, the Blackhawks don't leave much unprotected except for Riley Stillman. The sophomore has slotted into the Chicago lineup well post-trade, and has been racking up peripherals. He's an underrated asset in deeper multi-category leagues, and could be the best selection option from the re-tooling Hawks.

Colorado Avalanche

Is the Seattle draft holding up a Gabriel Landeskog extension? I had a discussion with one of my cap leagues, and we settled on a six-year deal around a $7 million cap hit making the most sense for the 28-year-old captain. Whatever he ends up agreeing to, it seems like a foregone conclusion that GM Joe Sakic will get something done. However, crossing the 'T's on the deal after the expansion draft would mean that the Avalanche could protect Andre Burakovsky instead (same thing with Philipp Grubauer and Pavel Francouz). Another assumption to make is that Erik Johnson waives his NMC for the draft, as the chances he gets selected are slim. This would allow the Avs to keep their top-four defencemen out of the draft, and in the end just lose a depth forward. A fresh start for Tyson Jost or Valeri Nichushkin could see a big production increase if the minutes are there.

Columbus Blue Jackets

The decisions for the Blue Jackets are fairly straightforward, and the last protection slot will likely boil down to one of Gustav Nyquist or Eric Robinson. If you're the Seattle GM, would you prefer a 25-year-old winger who has thrived in limited minutes and chipped in offensively despite playing a defensive role this season, or would you lean towards starting the inaugural season with a 32-year-old, one-dimensional winger who is coming off of major shoulder surgery and hasn't played a game since March of 2020? Personally, I would roll the dice with Robinson unless Columbus is adding a sweetener for me to take on Nyquist. If Nyquist does end up in Seattle, he should be in their top-six and on their top powerplay, but both options are risky for the time being in fantasy leagues.

Dallas Stars

The selection for Seattle here is likely to come down to either Jason Dickinson or Anton Khudobin. The Stars might be best served by attaching a third to Khudobin to ensure he gets selected, and being finished with the possibility of a three-headed goalie monster. Dickinson has also grown this season while other members of the forward core were out with injuries. See if your league is deep enough to be worth inserting Dickinson into your lineup for the time being, as he showed flashes of fitting in on a scoring line.

Detroit Red Wings

Some teams just aren't going to give Seattle much, and the selection is just going to come down to who their scouts see a shred of potential in. With a few good goaltending options elsewhere, the Kraken could see Kaden Fulcher selection as an opportunity to add some goaltending depth to the system. However, looking back to Vegas we can see that they successfully cornered the market on depth defencemen that season and reaped a lot of extra draft picks for their troubles. Seattle could go down a similar road, and Christian Djoos would fit that well. Regardless of who they select from Detroit, don't expect much out of them.

Edmonton Oilers

Another team without enough depth to offer the Kraken much (aside from UFAs). Having to protect Darnell Nurse, Oscar Klefbom (who doesn't list as being exempt yet, but that might change once he officially misses the entire season), and Ethan Bear, the Oilers end up leaving Caleb Jones open for selection. With Seattle likely wanting to overload on defencemen, that makes sense for them. Jones likely won't be in line for a top-six role though, so don't get your hopes up.

Florida Panthers

With Chris Driedger as a UFA and Spencer Knight exempt, the Panthers' crowded goalie pipeline is spared from having to juggle with side deals for extra protection. There are still reasonably interesting options for Seattle on the rest of the roster though, with the most likely selection being Radko Gudas. On a reasonable contract for two more seasons, Gudas would be an excellent add for the Kraken. He's second in the NHL in hits with over 200 already, and that's while playing under 18 minutes per game. On an expansion team he could average over five hits per game!

Los Angeles Kings

The Kings aren't good enough to make the playoffs, but they are good enough to have some tough roster decisions. If they leave any of their top-four defencemen unprotected then that would be the obvious selection. Barring a side-deal here, the Kings then stand to lose a forward. Blake Lizotte, Brendan Lemieux, Carl Grundstrom, and Lias Andersson could all benefit from some added opportunity, and the odds are good that one of them ends up moving North along the coast.

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Minnesota Wild

I have a feeling that Zach Parise and Ryan Suter help the team out by waiving their NMCs and then threatening to retire if they get selected (only Parise is really necessary, but they're a package deal at this point). If they don't, then Minnesota might be giving up one of the best players in the expansion draft. I'm going to assume they do or that a side deal is worked out to keep the skaters intact. That leaves Cam Talbot as the odd man out, and the future 1A for Seattle.

Montreal Canadiens

Montreal has a whole bunch of contracts that I don't know if Seattle would take on. If Shea Weber (a B.C native) is left unprotected and then retires after two seasons with Seattle, he would actually hand the Kraken a cap benefit for a few years due to the intricacies of the cap-recapture nonsense. Would Seattle take him on for some veteran moxie and the chance to have a higher cap than the rest of the NHL for a few years? It's an interesting concept (or at least I find it interesting).

If Jonathan Drouin is left unprotected, is that contract too onerous for a player on pace for four goals? Do the Canadiens re-sign any of their UFAs before the expansion draft (they have a few high-profile options)? Do they make a side deal to protect Jake Allen as well? I think at least the answer to that last question is yes, meaning the selection would be a skater. Maybe Seattle takes on Paul Byron for the price of a draft pick and Jesse Ylonen or Jan Mysak.

Keep an eye and try to read between the lines on the contracts and the roster shuffling around Montreal. There could be bounceback and fresh-start opportunities aplenty.

Nashville Predators

David Poile wasn't afraid to make the bold move and protect Calle Jarnkrok over James Neal in the last expansion draft, and doing something similar makes even more sense this time around. Both Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen could be left unprotected without likely being selected due to their anchor contracts. Assuming the top-four are protected on defence, that means Colton Sissons is likely the odd man out on forward. His cost certainty and versatility would be a boon for Seattle. I like his outlook out from under John Hynes, he has an extra gear or two of production that he can reach in a fresh scenario.

New Jersey Devils

There's no benefit to protecting P.K. Subban, and it's not like the Devils have much to offer outside of their protection list otherwise. Seattle likely takes this opportunity to swing on 23-year-old former first rounder Michael McLeod.

New York Islanders

Sticking with the 'former first-rounder with offensive upside' option, Michael Dal Colle could be the pick from the Islanders. Other options would be Scott Mayfield, a high draft pick attached to Matt Martin/Leo Komarov, or one of their UFAs. Lou Lamoriello being who he is though will likely find a way to unload Komarov to Seattle, using that cap space to re-sign Kyle Palmieri.

New York Rangers

The fact that the Rangers have Adam Fox, Kaapo Kakko, Igor Shesterkin, Alexis Lafreniere, Vitali Kravstov, Zach Jones, and K'Andre Miller exempted from the Seattle expansion is just unfair.

Their roster is constructed to perfection to get around expansion unscathed, and to get a bit spicy, I think they're going to win their division title next season (regardless of who shuffles into their division). They stand to lose a fringe player, with the best option being Julien Gauthier, another former first rounder. He hasn't gotten the chance to really thrive yet, but he has the talent and hasn't seen his development stagnate.

Ottawa Senators

The Sens have options in net (but will end up protecting Matt Murray, only two defencemen worth protecting, and Austin Watson as their only forward that meets exposure requirements. The easy solution is to trade a goalie for a defenceman that another team can't protect (Stillman or Mayfield could fit) and then sign Michael Amadio to an extension, making him the target for Seattle. Amadio has shown well as a fourth line centre, and could be a reliable third line option at his peak. Coming from Ottawa that's as good as you're going to get.

If Seattle pivots and uses one of Ottawa's goalies as one of their main selections for their crease, then the fantasy value for someone like Joey Daccord could see a jump.

Philadelphia Flyers

In an effort to keep up in a young man's world, I think the Flyers need to protect all of Oskar Lindblom, Scott Laughton, and Nolan Patrick. Due to their forward depth though, that means leaving James van Reimsdyk and – bear with me – Jakub Voracek unprotected. If the core of this team is going to stay intact and competitive, then losing one of those two high-priced forwards is a necessary evil. Seattle will need to reach the cap floor, and as far as large contracts go, Voracek's is at least somewhat reasonable.

Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins don't leave a lot exposed for Seattle, and there really aren't any defenceman with any kind of upside other than Mike Matheson who is going to be overpaid until 2026. That means the Kraken will be filling out a depth forward slot with someone like Sam Lafferty or Teddy Blueger. Nothing to see here.

San Jose Sharks

The Sharks will have to sign a few more extensions for eligible forwards to be exposed, but unless they make a trade or two before the expansion draft then there won't be anyone worth grabbing up front (any why would they make trade just to lose that player). That means the most likely selection that we're looking at is Radim Simek. The rugged 28-year-old is signed at a reasonable cap hit of $2.25M per year until 2024.

If Simek was to be drafted by Seattle, I think he gets flipped elsewhere and never plays a game for the Kraken. It will be third-pairing minutes wherever he goes. There's some mileage there for someone though, plus some fantasy value in leagues that count peripherals.

St. Louis Blues

Justin Faulk's contract protects him from expansion, meaning the Blues can still protect seven forwards and don't have to worry about losing a key piece on the back end. They will still be losing one of Sammy Blais or Oscar Sundqvist, and usually the centres are valued more highly so Blais should be left as Kraken bait. Whether he plays on St. Louis or Seattle though, don't expect more than a third line role.

Tampa Bay Lightning

The Lightning are going to lose a good player, and I could see this being the kind of situation where both teams find a win-win scenario. Everyone in the public sphere wants Washington State native Tyler Johnson to end up in Seattle, but based solely on the protection lists, Johnson wouldn't be one of the first half-a-dozen best options available from the Lightning. However, the Lightning can lose a couple pieces and turn out fine, but what they also need to do is shed salary. If the Lightning were to gift the Kraken Yanni Gourde and a prospect such as Cal Foote, for the price of selecting Tyler Johnson, both teams could walk away winners.

The Lightning continue to churn through their incredible franchise depth at forward, while not losing one of their core pieces. They free up $10M in cap space with which they can re-sign some of their UFAs, and their lineup still looks formidable:

Palat – Point – Kucherov

Killorn – Cirelli – Stamkos

Coleman – Stephens – Goodrow

Colton – Joseph – Maroon

(Barre-Boulet)

Hedman – Cernak

McDonagh – Sergachev

Rutta – Borgman

Vasilevsky – FA goalie

It's possible that Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow get priced out of town though, so try getting in on some of the depth players like Matthew Joseph and Ross Colton (he of the 6th highest p/60 metric in the NHL) before their value goes up as lineup spots open.

On the West coast, Seattle then gets a local player and two-thirds of a top line, plus they add a defenceman with a higher-ceiling than will be available elsewhere. Johnson's contract will also look a lot less like an anchor when he's getting top line minutes and all the powerplay time he can handle.

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs stand to lose one of Alex Kerfoot, Justin Holl, or Travis Dermott. Dermott and Kerfoot would likely see an increased role if selected, but it's also possible that Kyle Dubas dips into the prospect pool that he didn't have to touch at the deadline and flips a higher value asset to Seattle in exchange for taking a lesser player off the roster. Something along the lines of Filip Hallander or Timothy Liljegren so that Seattle takes Pierre Engvall.

Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks really have nothing good to offer Seattle. This is going to be the kind of thing where Seattle takes an AHL player or a UFA and nothing changes for either team. If it ends up being the recently acquired Matthew Highmore, then his value goes down because Seattle will likely have more competition for the bottom-six forward slots than there is in Vancouver.

Washington Capitals

The Capitals have two good young goalies this season, and one of them will be available for Seattle. Vitek Vanecek will make an excellent 1B option in net with Cam Talbot, and can slowly take one a higher workload as Talbot ages and gets phased out.

Winnipeg Jets

The choice from the Jets likely comes down to Mason Appleton or Tucker Poolman. Sticking with the theory from earlier that Seattle will lean towards defencemen when available, Poolman or Beaulieu could make a lot of sense, but Poolman is a UFA and Beaulieu has a very low ceiling. That would then make it very likely that Seattle could flip a defenceman or two back to Winnipeg for some additional picks. Mason Appleton is the other option, but he needs to be in the top-six somewhere and there likely isn't room there with either Winnipeg or Seattle.

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Here's my final sketch of the potential Seattle roster:

Forwards:

Gourde – T. Johnson – Voracek

Nyquist – Dickinson – Jost

Sissons – Lizotte – Blais

Lafferty – Amadio – Byron

Engvall

Minors: Highmore, Gauthier, Komarov (Buyout?), Appleton

Defencemen:

Skjei – Gudas

Stillman – C. Miller

Larsson – Foote

Minors: Kylington, Simek, C. Jones, Moore, Djoos, Liljegren

Goalies:

Talbot – Vanecek

Minors: Hill

This roster hits all of the positional and contractual minimums, and is just above the cap floor before all of the RFAs are signed. A reasonable mix of scoring and grit, youth and veterans. Seattle won't likely look at all like this, but it gives an idea of what's available and what kind of players might stand to benefit across the league.

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Any questions, comments, or criticisms on my Seattle thoughts, stick them in the comments, or find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean. In the meantime, stay safe!

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