Looking Ahead: April 23 – May 5

Adam Daly-Frey

2021-04-23

All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week, and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their upcoming schedule.

Note: With COVID news coming out of the blue, this article could be stale by Friday evening. It is important as always to pay attention to twitter and the site (especially the Ramblings) to keep abreast of all fantasy-relevant changes. The schedule portion of this article will continue as always, but be prepared to react quickly if games get postponed. All stats updated through Wednesday, April 21st

The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)

Tanner Pearson, F, Vancouver Canucks (Available in 89 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Having just landed an extension with the Canucks, the top-line winger for Vancouver grabbed two goals in the first two games back from COVID – even though both games were against Ottawa, they still count all the same – and hit 19:39 and 16:51 in ice time, both above his season average. In fact, although his season average ice time is just 16:39, Pearson has topped 18 minutes in six of the past ten games.

With Elias Pettersson gone and Brock Boeser playing away from the number-one center (Bo Horvat), that means plenty of opportunity for Pearson – who's playing bumper on the top power play – and although his 8G-5A line isn't much to like at through the 35 games he's played, it's all about taking opportunity this late in the season. Pearson has a great upcoming schedule and contributes just over two shots per game as well as just under two combined hits and blocks, which isn't ideal but isn't Selke-levels either. He's not keeper league material or anything along those lines, but he's a safe add over someone flashier like Arttu Ruotsalainen given the role.

The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)

David Krejci, F, Boston Bruins (Available in 61 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – Finally getting two wingers who can contribute after the Bruins acquired Taylor Hall and moved Craig Smith to play with Krejci has already led to 3G-2A in the past five games, although that's on just nine shots. Krejci has seen lower ice time as the result of his new linemates – going from an average of 17:12 on the season to seeing between 14:05-15:29 in his past four games – but that's because of a role change, as Krejci gets to see more bottom-six lines than previously and Charlie Coyle has taken the tougher minutes. That should continue to lead to scoring opportunities, and although he's on the second power play unit, that's more than zero power play time.

Krejci is a player who's had a pedigree – he put up 69 points in 2013-24 and has jumped between 31 (in the lockout season) and a career-high of 73 in 81 games in 2018-19 – and historically has shot at a very high percentage, converting on 12.4 percent of shots over his career and over 14 in each of the past four seasons. That should mean some positive regression as currently he's converting just 7.9 percent of shots, which would be his career-low. With sheltered minutes and good scoring opportunities as a practically-free center, he's a good addition for those who don't want to play a nightly "what-if" in place of Roope Hintz or to someone still clinging to hope that a Stamkos or Seguin comes back to make an impact.

The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)

Mikhail Sergachev, D, Tampa Bay Lightning (Rostered in 82 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – His stat line on the season is nothing to scoff at – Sergachev has put up 2G-24A in 46 games on just 2.2 percent shooting – and seeing over 22 minutes a night is always enticing for a defenseman, but Sergachev is currently not getting even second power play minutes (Ryan McDonagh's eating those) and will always be playing behind Victor Hedman at 5v5 and on the top unit. That's severely limiting to Sergachev's upside, which likely means he'll continue to score at the same point pace of just below 0.5 per game, which just isn't viable at this ownership.

While there are many reasons to hang on to the young Russian, especially in keeper leagues, looking at lower-lights like Matt Grzelcyk (35 percent rostered!) who are actually getting put into positions to succeed and then succeeding is the better idea. It's time to let go of Sergachev's name value in points-only leagues, and in deeper head-to-head leagues could probably be benched through the playoffs. In leagues that care about peripherals there's more of an argument to be made for keeping him active, but Tampa Bay's schedule isn't anything to write home about (not bad, just not good) which means a move can be made.

The Anchors (They'll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)

James van Riemsdyk, F, Philadelphia Flyers (Rostered in 63 percent of Yahoo! Leagues) – The power forward for Philadelphia's had a decent year so far, with 14G-21A in 45 games on 13.1 percent shooting, which is in line with his career level of 12 percent, but expectations should be lowered drastically down the stretch for van Riemsdyk in a lost season for the Flyers. Already losing ice time to Joel Farabee, JvR now finds himself without a spot on the top power play, as that's been given to up-and-comer Wade Allison; Allison put up 4G-5A in nine AHL games this year but doesn't have scoring pedigree and has one goal in four NHL games this year, so replacing van Riemsdyk says a lot about the direction Philadelphia will go the rest of the season.

Previously the anchor on a line with Kevin Hayes sometimes and Sean Couturier often, JvR now finds himself scraping the bottom of the barrel in terms of ice time and linemates, playing on the 'tough matchup' line centered by Scott Laughton; that means lots of heavy minutes against good opposition, and less offensive faceoffs. van Riemsdyk also has the reputation of being more of a multi-category guy than he actually is, as he's at just around 1.1 combined hits and blocks per game in his time in Philadelphia, and just a touch ahead of that this year. He can be dropped in most formats.

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Love 'Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)

This period runs from April 23rd to May 5th

Los Angeles – Thanks to the Colorado and St. Louis postponements this season, Los Angeles has to jam in 12 games between now and May 13th; eight of those 12 games come this period, which means the Kings are the team to target in head-to-head leagues. The Kings will play the Wild once, the Coyotes three times, and the Ducks four times.

New Jersey – The Devils roster is pretty ugly these days – the most-rostered player on Yahoo is Jack Hughes at 40% – and while that isn't changing any time soon, the Devils still play seven times this period which on volume alone will make them attractive. They'll have four games against the woeful Flyers, two games against the Bruins, and one against the Penguins.

Vancouver – Coming back from COVID should be a scary scene, but in Vancouver's first two games they pulled out wins against a strong Maple Leafs roster on the back of production from the top line and Quinn Hughes – so maybe there's no cause for concern! The Canucks play seven games this period: three against Ottawa, two against Toronto, and two against Edmonton.

Leave 'Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)

Columbus – After scoring only eight goals combined in their past five games the Blue Jackets are already a team to avoid, but they play only five times this period which will put a major cap on their upside. Columbus will have a decent time against some soft opposition – they'll play the Red Wings once and the Predators twice along with single games against Tampa and Carolina – but on volume they should be avoided.

Detroit – Not that the Red Wings were popular in the first place (outside of Dylan Larkin and now maybe Jakub Vrana), but the next two weeks are torture for fantasy players with Red Wings on the roster: Detroit will play just five games this period, which includes home games against Dallas (once) and Tampa Bay (twice) to go with single road games in Columbus and Carolina. None of those are easy matches but on volume and roster, avoid any Detroit players.

Nashville – The Preds have been struggling on the power play of late and even the return of Eeli Tolvanen won't help them much; Nashville's been incredibly hit-and-miss recently, scoring one goal or less in four of their last ten, but also topping five goals in three games. That inconsistency is death for fantasy this late in the year, and Nashville's games this period aren't the most enticing: at Columbus twice, home to Florida twice as well as Dallas once, and a game in Chicago.

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