Ramblings: Another Varlamov Shutout, Caufield’s First Goal, Miller Time Ends (May 2)
Ian Gooding
2021-05-02
Just call it Super Saturday, where all of the NHL's active 31 teams except Winnipeg were in action.
It was the kind of day where Craig Smith was way more valuable to fantasy owners than David Pastrnak. Many fantasy owners (such as myself) made the decision to drop Smith after he had gone five games without a point or eight games without a goal. Yet if you hung onto Smith, you were rewarded with a hat trick and a plus-2 and five shots in the Bruins' 6-2 win over Buffalo. Smith is hot again with five points in his last two games.
Smith's spot alongside David Krejci and newly acquired Taylor Hall gives the Bruins perhaps the strongest second line that they've had in a while. Krejci also had a big game in assisting on all of Smith's goals. Even with Smith's slump, Krejci has been on fire with 14 points (6 G, 8 A) over his last 11 games. Not surprisingly, this coincides with Boston's acquisition of Hall.
With an assist on one of Smith's goals, Mike Reilly now has six assists in his 11 games with the Bruins. With just two losses in their last 11 and some strong trade-deadline additions, the Bruins appear to be in a great spot heading into the playoffs.
And as I hinted at earlier, Pastrnak was held without a point in spite of the Bruins' six-goal effort.
Buffalo goalies simply cannot stay healthy. Starting his third consecutive game, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen had to leave after two periods with an ankle injury. Dustin Tokarski took over from Luukkonen in the third period. If Tokarski is injured, then I don't know who will start. Here's an idea:
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I'll bet you didn't think Thomas Greiss and Curtis McElhinney would both earn shutouts, especially in the same game. In the end, Greiss was more deserving of the shutout win that he earned, stopping all 33 shots he faced in regulation and overtime, plus five of eight Lightning shootout attempts in an eventual 1-0 Red Wings win. This might surprise you: Greiss has picked up two shutouts this week, as he also shut out the Blue Jackets on Tuesday. Another surprising Greiss stat for you: Since April 1, Greiss has a 1.64 GAA and .947 SV% in 11 games. Fantasy owners didn't want to go anywhere near him because he plays for the Red Wings (only 11% rostered in Yahoo leagues).
The Wings' lack of success hides the half-decent seasons that Greiss and Jonathan Bernier (.912 SV%) have had this season. With a team 3.06 GAA, the Wings are closer to the middle of the pack than they are the bottom of the league.
Detroit's real problem is generating shots and offense. They took just 15 shots on Curtis McElhinney in this game. Currently without Dylan Larkin and having traded Anthony Mantha at the deadline, the Wings have scored just two goals total over their last four games. If your fantasy season is coming down to the Sunday Wings and Bolts game, there aren't a ton of hot options to choose from on the Detroit side (Filip Hronek, I need you to come through on Sunday!) No one on the Wings roster aside from recently acquired Jakub Vrana is both healthy and scoring at a 0.5 PTS/GP pace. These are clearly not the Yzerman/Fedorov Red Wings of old, although they are taking some positive steps in the rebuild.
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The Stars/Predators game very nearly went the same way the Red Wings/Lightning game went. 0-0 after 60 minutes. Then Erik Haula broke the scoreless tie with his overtime winner, which meant that Anton Khudobin missed out on both a win and a shutout.
Juuse Saros, however, picked up the shutout. When we're talking about Nashville holding on to the final playoff spot in the Central over Dallas, Saros is the main reason they're in the spot that they're in. After Saros allowed six goals on 55 shots (yes, you read that correctly) on Tuesday, he was able to bounce back with this shutout. Maybe only having to face 28 shots helped.
The Preds also received a nice boost on Saturday, if not offensively. Filip Forsberg was activated from IR before the game. He was held without a point with three shots. Forsberg hasn't played in over a month due to an upper-body injury.
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Cole Caufield's first NHL goal turned out to be the overtime winner for the Habs over the Senators.
The goal was also Caufield's first NHL point in his fourth game. He has averaged around 13 minutes, but he is making the most of those 13 minutes in taking an average of three shots per game. If you are playing meaningful games next week, Adam recommended Caufield in his most recent Looking Ahead. Rookies don't usually get prime opportunities to start, but we're at a point of the season where just about any player has the potential to provide necessary short-term fantasy value. For more on Caufield, see his Dobber Prospects profile.
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With another two goals on Saturday, Auston Matthews extended his goal-scoring lead to 38 goals. He also has 17 goals and 25 points over his last 17 games. Unless Connor McDavid can score over a goal per game and Matthews doesn't play another game this season, Matthews is a lock for the Rocket Richard Trophy.
Nick Foligno has found himself a home on the Matthews/Mitch Marner top line. So far he is liking Toronto, as he now has assists in all four games as a Leaf to go with a plus-5. He's been picked up in nearly 40 percent of Yahoo leagues, but he's worth a look anyway.
Fun fact I learned from the Canucks/Leafs game: Neither Mitch Marner nor Quinn Hughes has a power-play goal this season.
Tanner Pearson has four goals in his last eight games… but he entered this game without a point in his last four games. Since signing that extension, he's either hot or not, depending on how you look at it.
Jake Virtanen did not play for the Canucks, as he has been placed on leave by the organization amid sexual misconduct allegations.
Perhaps related to the Virtanen absence, Jonah Gadjovich is expected to join the Canucks upon clearing quarantine, according to Elliotte Friedman on the HNIC intermission panel. Gadjovich is a power forward who has 15 goals in 19 AHL games this season. Before that, he was slow to get going at the AHL level, which as we know is not uncommon for a power forward (6-2, 209 lbs.) So don't expect instant results at the NHL level. For more, see his Dobber Prospects profile.
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Semyon Varlamov shut out the Rangers AGAIN on Saturday. That's back-to-back shutouts against the Rangers, back-to-back-to-back shutouts overall, and four shutouts against the Rangers this season. He hasn't allowed a goal in 213:56, which works out to 10 periods without allowing a goal, a new Islanders team record. He also leads the league with seven shutouts. Going further back, Varlamov has posted seven quality starts in a row. Ilya Sorokin has six quality starts in his last seven games, but right now the net belongs to Varlamov. At least Sorokin should start one of the back-to-back games on Monday and Tuesday against Buffalo, which will be absolute must-starts for both.
Offensively, the Islanders were led by Anthony Beauvillier, who scored two goals with a plus-3 and six shots. Beauvillier has scored five goals and eight points over his last six games. Josh Bailey assisted on both of Beauvillier's goals with three assists overall in this game.
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Evgeni Malkin still wasn't ready to return. That was no sweat for Bryan Rust, who scored two goals to lead the Penguins to a 3-0 win. I'll admit I thought Rust would turn into a pumpkin after a point-per-game pace (56 points in 55 games) last season. That has happened with his assist total, which is down 10 in nearly the same number of games as last season. Yet he has hit 20 goals for the second consecutive season in spite of playing no more than 56 games in either season.
Tristan Jarry made 24 saves for his second shutout in four games. He's improved as the season has gone on.
Quarter | GP | W | L | OTL | GAA | SV% | QUAL | QUAL% | GSAA |
1 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 3.95 | 0.857 | 1 | 14.3 | -9.08 |
2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2.49 | 0.921 | 7 | 58.3 | 4.49 |
3 | 9 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2.48 | 0.922 | 5 | 55.6 | 3.11 |
4 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 2.10 | 0.929 | 5 | 62.5 | 4.75 |
Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson weren't available again on Saturday, which is an unfortunate break for fantasy teams.
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From a Calgary writer:
Sam Bennett recorded his 12th and 13th points (both assists) in his ninth game with the Panthers, which exceeds his total with the Flames (12 points) in 38 games. I wrote more about Bennett in the Friday Ramblings.
Not to be outdone, Anthony Duclair scored two goals and added an assist. See below for Duclair's recent production.
The Panthers have only three games left, but all are at home. You won't be able to rely on them for volume, but the names above are a strong bet to pick up points.
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Goalie assist alert, and it was highlight-package worthy:
Alex Nedeljkovic helped his fantasy teams earn a W not only by saving 31 of 32 shots, but also with this assist, his first of the season. He's now posted quality starts in six of his last seven games. I told whoever was asking NOT to drop Ned when Petr Mrazek was nearing a return. Hope you took my advice.
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Both Vancouver and Calgary lost in regulation on Saturday, which means that both teams are nearly mathematically eliminated with Montreal very close to clinching the final playoff spot in the North. The Canucks and Flames face each other in the final three games of the regular season (May 16, 18, 19), which are games that are about to have zero playoff implications for anyone. I wonder if the NHL decides to cancel these three games, then calculates draft seeding by points percentage. Optics-wise, this would be the right move, given what the Canucks have been through with COVID. If your fantasy league is extending its season all the way to these three games, this is just something to think about as you plan ahead.
As I've mentioned on Twitter, I'm really on the fence about extending the season past the original May 8 end date. I know others have very strong opinions on this one way or the other.
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In allowing six goals on Saturday, Cal Petersen has just one quality start and only one win in his last nine games. Over that span, there's been only one really bad start (Saturday), but as a Petersen owner I certainly expected better. He's been given the starting job over veteran Jonathan Quick, yet he hasn't been able to run with it. As the Kings rebuild and as Petersen gains more NHL experience, he should be in for better days.
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What a way for Ryan Miller to end his career. Given the nod in the Ducks' final home game of the season, Miller made 23 saves in earning a 6-2 win over the Kings. Usually I try to discuss what to expect from the player in the future after listing the stats, but in Miller's case this is it! I wrote more about Miller and his legacy in the Friday Ramblings.
Congratulations to Miller on an amazing career!
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding