Ramblings: Newhook’s debut; Updates on Fabbri and Tarasenko; season observations – May 6
Michael Clifford
2021-05-06
Alex Newhook made his debut for the Avs on Wednesday, playing down the lineup. The Avs are deep enough that I don't expect he'll crack the regular playoff lineup without injury, but we'll see how this shakes out. It is always nice having a bevy of options to turn to, and Newhook tore up the AHL with five goals and nine points in eight games. The 16th overall pick from 2019 is a big part of their future, and it's just nice seeing him with the big club for now.
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Robby Fabbri is possibly returning:
We got an update a little later that he is, in fact, done for the year, but it seems he'll keep practicing.
It also reminds everyone that Detroit's top-6 could be very good next year. Joe Veleno is in the fold, Tyler Bertuzzi (who actually had back surgery a few days ago) will be healthy, a full year of Jakub Vrana, and even Lucas Raymond may make an appearance. Take those four, add Dylan Larkin and Filip Zadina, and there could be something there.
Now, Veleno has to pan out and Zadina has to show something and Raymond has to hit his upside and on and on… But the pieces are there, at least, for a reasonable top-6. That hasn't been the case for five years.
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A quick update on Vladimir Tarasenko:
Both Vince Dunn and Torey Krug missed the game Wednesday night as well. This isn't a team with a playoff spot locked up so they're really going through it right now. That doesn't bode well for the postseason, if they get there. Though most teams have injury issues right now.
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Well, what we all thought would happen in the Rangers-Caps game actually happened. There was an instant line brawl off the first face-off, with three more fights in the next couple minutes. Six fights in total in the first few minutes.
Then, later in the period, Anthony Mantha went after Pavel Buchnevich so Buchnevich cross-checked him in the face. That got him five and a game. Also, Tom Wilson left after the first period due to an upper-body injury. And Zdeno Chara got a misconduct for yapping. And the best fight was probably Eller vs. Strome?
It was a wild game.
Anyway, TJ Oshie scored a very emotional hat trick in Washington's win, just days after the passing of his father. It was an incredible moment for him that was overshadowed by the circus encouraged by the NHL.
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With Thomas Chabot out of the lineup, Erik Brannstrom ran the top PP unit and put up a three-point night in Ottawa's 5-1 win over Montreal. Brannstrom turning into the player they need him to be, along with another guy I'll mention later, would be a monster win for the Sens.
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Erik Cernak had a goal and two assists in Tampa's 6-2 win over Dallas. Alex Killorn and Brayden Point also had a goal and an assist.
This effectively ends Dallas's season. I wish they could have gotten to the postseason. This is a real good team that was just killed by injuries and COVID. Hopefully they are rested and ready to go in September.
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Quinton Byfield got his first NHL point, an assist, on a Los Angeles second-period goal from Jaret Anderson-Dolan. The first of very many to come.
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Well, there are only a few days left in the regular season. I suppose there are technically two weeks left, but heaven help those poor souls watching meaningless Vancouver-Calgary games on like May 16th. Now that we're at this point, I've started working on some end-of-year stuff. Back on Tuesday, I wrote about my hits and misses from our Dobber's Preseason Panel, and yesterday was a dive into the major awards and who should/will win.
Today, some observations from the season. I won't go deep into these players or stats because we have an entire offseason for that. For now, maybe just a hundred words or so on 8-10 players from this year.
*Disclaimer: I am still figuring out how to deal with players this year. It is pretty obvious COVID played a big role on a number of teams, and that doesn't even drill down to specific players. We also saw the comments from Robin Lehner about mental health a few weeks ago, as well as the condensed schedule. That is for another day. Today is for just talking about the season that was for a number of players.
Fantasy owners always wonder whether a player is a product of his environment or his own talent. This year, Point has played zero minutes with Nikita Kucherov and only 222 of his 723 5-on-5 minutes (roughly 31 percent) with Steven Stamkos. Otherwise, Point has been carrying players like Palat, Johnson, and Barré-Boulet all season. Despite the lack of star-power up front, Point has as many points as Patrice Bergeron and John Tavares. It is a far cry from the 92 points a couple years ago, but that he'd be on pace for 73 points in a full year with no Kucherov and very little Stamkos bodes very well for Point's production floor moving forward.
One general theory I've developed is that Gaudreau's particular skillset was unique, or close to unique, five years ago. However, the league-wide influx of young talent as well as a basic restructuring of how most NHL teams attack in the offensive zone make Gaudreau less unique than he was. In other words, things Gaudreau was doing years ago that seemingly only a handful of people could do, well, guys like Stuetzle and Kaprizov stepped into the league and started doing right away. Again, it's just a theory of mine, but it would partly explain Gaudreau falling off the map his last two seasons (97 points in his last 120 games, or a 66-point/82-game pace. That is not near good enough, and with Sutter behind the bench, I'm not sure it gets better.
Josh Norris
My concern about the Ottawa rebuild was whether they'd have a 1C moving forward. I wasn't sure that drafting Tim Stuetzle would do the job, and I'm still not sure he will. But I am more sure that Norris is at least a potential 1C based on his play this year. He hasn't been elite, but he's had positive impacts both offensively and defensively, while also being great on the power play. He also looks completely at home on the top line with Brady Tkachuk. The next couple years will determine whether Norris is a 1C or a middle-6 centre, but at least it's a distinct possibility now, and that would be a huge piece of their rebuild falling into place.
I have talked about Comtois a few times this year, as recently as a couple weeks ago, so I won't go much further here. But he's tied with guys like Alex Killorn, Chris Kreider, and Taylor Hall in points with 30 and he has both 100 shots and 100 hits firmly within reach for the year. Not bad for his second year in the league, a season after being demoted to the AHL. He will be a nice cheap target in multi-cat drafts next season.
There were significant concerns about Minnesota's centre position this year, especially after Marco Rossi was lost for the year. That made me nervous about Fiala's production, and those nerves were justified, as he had just 11 points in his first 20 games. In his last 25 games, he has 28 points, to go with over three shots per game. That is despite playing under 17 minutes a night and often with Ryan Hartman as his centre. What could he do next year with Rossi as his centre? Fiala is truly a special offensive talent and it's nice to see him turn his season around.
At a certain point, I was very high on Jokiharju, but time is starting to run out a bit here. Not that Buffalo is a good environment for anyone, but he's had negligible impacts this year, and that's not a good sign for a guy in his third season. Now, he's only 21 years old, and on a terrible team. Also, he and Rasmus Dahlin have been a great pair for them over the last five weeks, as the team has a 45.8 percent expected goal share with them on the ice and under 40 percent with them off the ice. There is still something there, it may just take a couple more years than hoped.
I recently hopped on the Keeping Karlsson pod and Dumba was one of the topics. My thought was that as of 2019, I thought Dumba was going to be the next Shea Weber. Basically, I thought Dumba would be good for 15 goals, 45 points, and triple-digit hits and blocks almost every year. Well, he has 12 goals in his last 115 games and his point pace over that stretch works out to 31 every 82 games. That is not Weber-like. The problem is the power play; when Dumba was really cooking, double-digit PPs were a lock. The last two years, or those 115 games, he has 13 PPPs. Until he gets his PP role back, he won't be Weber.
The implosion of Carter Hart this year should keep people wary of goalies without a track record. In fact, even if we look at John Gibson's last two years, we should be wary even of goalies with a track record. All that said, Shesterkin is third in goals saved above expected over his first two seasons (behind only Hellebuyck and Mrazek), second in WAR/60, and first in high-danger save percentage at 5-on-5. Over the last two seasons, there are good arguments he's been the second-best goalie in hockey behind only Andrei Vaslievskiy. Those numbers hold relatively constant when looking at just this year as well. He is now locked into the starter's role and has all the pedigree in the world. If there's a goalie that lines up to be the next Helelbuyck, it's Shesterkin.
I am going to talk about more players over the summer but those are some guys that caught my eye this year. I would also like to give an honourable mention to guys like Kirill Kaprizov, Martin Necas, Gabriel Vilardi, Quinn Hughes, and more. Who are some guys that stood out to you this year, for one reason or another?