Daily Fantasy Saturday: Take the Sure Thing in McDavid

Stephen Dotzel

2021-05-08

Well friends, we've reached the final Saturday of the regular season (excluding the one Vancouver-Edmonton make-up game on the schedule). When the season kicked off four months ago, I wasn't too sure this day would come, especially on time, but the league was able to pull it off. How they managed certain situations is certainly up for debate, but that's a topic for someone else.

From a fantasy perspective, this final Saturday slate might be the toughest of the entire year, as there are several factors in play. First off, there are 14 games scheduled (12 games at 7 pm ET or later), which makes it one of the largest of the season. Similar to last week's big one, my plan of attack will be to rule out a few spots right off the bat which will help narrow down the targets.

Secondly, six of the games on Saturday are the second leg of a back-to-back from Friday. This makes Saturday's slate difficult to break down until well after Friday's conclusions. Teams could make line changes mid game, players could get injured, and Saturday's starting goalies could be held under wraps. All of these things could affect the direction of Saturday's slate. It will certainly be a time you'll want to stay on top of the news throughout the day. Following my "DFS-NHL" Twitter list @SteveDotzel can be a big help here.

Finally, with many of the playoff races already decided some teams who are already locked in may decide to rest some key players. Others who have been eliminated might simply lack the motivation they'd otherwise have. While the latter isn't something you'll probably be able to take into account, the former is another thing that can be tracked by news throughout the day and during warmups.

With lots to get to, here's how I'm handling this tough 12 game slate. All prices are from DraftKings, but players and strategies can be applied to FanDuel as well. 

Top Options

EDM – Connor McDavid ($9,200), Leon Draisaitl ($8,200)

I'll take the layup here to start. McDavid is just on another level right now, even for his standards. He has two points or more in nine of the last ten games, and three or more in seven of those nine. Simply incredible. During that span he's averaged a staggering 24.4 DraftKings points per game. Sitting just four points shy of 100 for the season, McDavid should have plenty of motivation to keep his foot on the gas despite Edmonton all but being assured of the second spot in the North.

Despite Thursday's win, Vancouver is still averaging 4.5 goals allowed per game over their last six. You can play McDavid solo as he can create enough on his own, but can always stack Draisaitl or Tyson Barrie ($6,200) with him if you have the space as well. Jesse Puljujarvi ($4,900) is another option and also consider Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ($5,900) who is a good way to diversify your McDavid lineups as very few will go that stacking route.

COL – Nathan MacKinnon ($9,000) or Tyson Jost ($2,700), Mikko Rantanen ($8,800), Gabriel Landeskog ($7,500)

First off, if you missed the news Friday MacKinnon was a late scratch. His status will have a big impact on this slate and I'd expect to get an update on that throughout the day on Saturday. If he sits again, it's obviously a big blow to the Colorado offense, but I'd still consider rostering them. Jost ($2,700) took MacKinnon's spot to start on Friday, scoring a goal, and is near minimum price.

If MacKinnon plays, the injury scare could lead him to being less owned than he otherwise would have, and as a result I'll have him in plenty of lineups. MacKinnon had a 17-game road point streak snapped on Wednesday, so he'll look to start a new one tonight against the Kings if he gets back on the ice. His linemates are the obvious stacking partners, and would be the main targets if MacKinnon were to sit, but you can also consider Cale Makar ($6,400) and Joonas Donskoi ($4,200).

MIN – Kirill Kaprizov ($6,900), Mats Zuccarello ($4,800), Ryan Hartman ($3,600)

A team with plenty to play for down the stretch is the Minnesota Wild. Entering Friday, the team still had an outside shot at the West Division crown and is very much in play for the two seed and the home-ice advantage that would come with it in the first round.

Any stack with the Wild needs to have Kaprizov in it at this point, as the rookie continues to shine and is now up to 27 goals on the season including eleven in his last eleven games. Stacking Kaprizov can be a bit tricky as his linemates don't correlate with him on the power play at all. Zuccarello and secondly Hartman are my preferred options given the even strength time they'll see together but other forwards like Kevin Fiala ($6,500) and Nick Bonino ($3,300) will join Kaprizov on the man advantage so can be included in stacks as well.

Matt Dumba ($4,900) and Jared Spurgeon ($5,300) also make for good stacking partners as defensemen.

NYI – Anthony Beauvillier ($4,600), Brock Nelson ($4,300), Josh Bailey ($3,300)

The Islanders seem to be backing their way into the playoffs, having lost three straight to the likes of Buffalo and New Jersey. Not something you'd expect from this team. These losses have all but assured them of the fourth spot in the East, but I'm sure Barry Trotz would like to see his club enter the postseason with some momentum so I fully expect the Islanders to come out ready to play in this one.

Trotz has been cycling players in and out of the lineup of late, but the line of Nelson, Beauvillier, and Bailey has remained consistent and has accounted for 17 points over the last five games – which is actually 49% of all the Islanders points during that span. Their price tags are very affordable which allows them to be stacked with some of the higher priced options out there.

Quick Hitters

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WSH – With Brian Elliott starting Friday, I'd expect to see Alex Lyon in net Saturday. Despite a strong outing for Lyon on Monday I'd still consider this good news for the Capitals. In his three previous starts to that one Lyon allowed at least four goals in each, including five to this Washington team on April 17. I wouldn't expect Alex Ovechkin back in time for Saturday so I'm looking at Anthony Mantha ($5,000), Nicklas Backstrom ($5,500), Daniel Sprong ($3,700), and John Carlson ($7,000) as my stacking targets.

WPG – The Jets ended their seven-game skid with a 4-0 shutout against the Flames on Wednesday and now get a home matchup with the Senators. The Mark Scheifele ($7,200) – Kyle Connor ($6,400) – Blake Wheeler ($5,500) line has recently been reunited, which is a combination that has produced some big outputs in the past. They all share top power-play time making this stack fully correlated, which is always a plus. Their price tags in the context of the rest of the slate could keep ownership down on what would otherwise be a top play.

OTT – On the other side of that game, Ottawa is a team that has been out of the playoff picture for some time, but that hasn't phased them. The Senators have quietly gone 7-1-1 over their last nine games and given Winnipeg's recent struggles they set up as a sneaky stacking option. Brady Tkachuk ($7,300) is the top play here and could be stacked with Josh Norris ($5,200), Drake Batherson ($4,900), and/or Erik Brannstrom ($3,200). Brannstrom in particular is a top value given his cheap price tag after taking over top power play duties from the injured Thomas Chabot.

SJ – The Sharks may now be out of playoff contention but Tomas Hertl ($6,100) has shined down the stretch recording multiple points in five of the past six games entering Friday. This coincides with him being moved up to the top line with Evander Kane ($7,100) who is coming off two 30 points DraftKings performances this week. You can stack this duo with Alexander Barbanov ($2,700) which helps bring down the cost as well as with either Brent Burns ($6,300) or Erik Karlsson ($4,700).

Top Value Options for Filling Out Lineups

C – Adam Lowry ($3,700), Ryan Johansen ($3,300), Victor Rask ($2,800), Jost ($2,700)

W – Eeli Tolvanen ($3,900), Daniel Sprong ($3,700), Conor Sheary ($3,600), Bonino ($3,300)

D – Will Butcher ($3,800), Nick Leddy ($3,400), Brannstrom ($3,200), Rasmus Sandin ($3,000)

Goalie Picks

Cam Talbot ($8,500)

Ilya Sorokin ($8,300)

Mike Smith ($8,300)

Juuse Saros ($7,600)

Filip Gustavsson ($7,200)

Be sure to double check your lineups before lock for any last-minute scratches or goalie changes, especially this year with the Covid protocols. If you follow me on Twitter @SteveDotzel you can subscribe to my "DFS-NHL" list which is comprised of several team beat writers tweeting the most recent news in real-time. You can also reach out to me personally and I'll do my best to answer any questions I can. Hope to see you on top of the leaderboards!

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UPCOMING GAMES

Nov 05 - 19:11 CAR vs PHI
Nov 05 - 19:11 MTL vs CGY
Nov 05 - 19:11 BUF vs OTT
Nov 05 - 19:11 TOR vs BOS
Nov 05 - 19:11 NYI vs PIT
Nov 05 - 20:11 MIN vs L.A
Nov 05 - 20:11 STL vs T.B
Nov 05 - 20:11 WPG vs UTA
Nov 05 - 21:11 COL vs SEA
Nov 05 - 22:11 ANA vs VAN
Nov 05 - 22:11 S.J vs CBJ

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
ALEX LAFERRIERE L.A
MARTIN NECAS CAR
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
TIMOTHY LILJEGREN S.J

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
FILIP GUSTAVSSON MIN
PYOTR KOCHETKOV CAR
JUSTUS ANNUNEN COL
FREDERIK ANDERSEN CAR

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency NSH Players
18.7 RYAN O'REILLY GUSTAV NYQUIST FILIP FORSBERG
8.9 COLE SMITH COLTON SISSONS ZACHARY L'HEUREUX
7.2 TOMMY NOVAK JONATHAN MARCHESSAULT MARK JANKOWSKI

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