Ramblings – Johnny Hockey’s too late, Fox without Lindgren, Hagel’s potential and more (May 10)

Dobber

2021-05-10

For the 15th time in 16 years (damn lockout), I am offering a playoff draft list for your playoff pools. This will be available for download Monday (so it may be available as you read this). I had to quit working on it to write these Ramblings, but even with that minor delay I expect to have them ready before noon (Eastern Standard Time). It is an interactive list – you select your teams that go deep, run the rankings on the spreadsheet, and you get your draft list. So you can print off a couple of scenarios. I'll also include my own list, in case you don't want to do the work. You'll need excel and you'll need macros to be allowed. You can run these on Google sheets, but the macros won't work – you'll have to sort it manually (not a huge deal, you just miss out on the cool gimmick). Pick it up here.

Last week I mentioned spinning off an expanded NHL Draft Preview Issue to go alongside the Fantasy Prospects Report. I am now announcing that we have put that on the backburner. We'll circle back to that idea next year. This year we'll stick to the FPR as you've always seen it. I'll have that up for sale in about three weeks.

Those of you who subscribed to DobberHockey's guides (thank you) you may have noticed a one penny charge yesterday. That was the only way we could push the subscription date to May 15. This is our first time offering subscriptions so there were still some kinks to work out. When next year's products become available, if you subscribed, you will have definitely access to them when they are released, assuming that May 15 payment processes okay.

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Brandon Hagel has quietly built himself into an interesting fantasy option. Besides unexpectedly making the team a good two years before my expectation, he then (just as unexpectedly) stuck for the entire season. Once he got into the lineup, Chicago never took him out. His ice time has slowly increased, moving from 12:49 per game in the first quarter to 15:44 in the final quarter. His linemates used to include names like "Carpenter" and "Kampf". Now? They include "DeBrincat" and "Dach". On Sunday he played with Dominik Kubalik and Philipp Kurashev. With a pair of points Sunday, Hagel now has nine points in his last 10 contests. He has 21 points in his last 35. Next season he will battle Kurashev and Alex Nylander for a key spot in the top six. And while Hagel probably has the lowest upside of the three, I am starting to believe that he is closer of the three to being a sure contributor. It's only a question of if that will be a 35- to 40-point player in the bottom six, or a 55- to 60-point guy on the second line.

Despite a shot percentage that dipped significantly, Kubalik managed to keep his points-per-game average on par with last year's impressive numbers (55-point pace). He seemed to be fighting a bit of a sophomore slump all season, but he chipped in enough assists to maintain his fantasy appeal. His 5on5 S% indicates some weaker puck luck (certainly weaker than last year) and his S% dipping from 19.1 to 10.9 was a steep drop. His shot volume increased even further this season, and his PPIPP increased to a solid 77.8%. It tells me his goal total will spike again next year. Although his 30 goals in 2019-20 were a little too high, he is shooting more pucks on net which should compensate. I think he exceeds 30 against next season – maybe 35 via 220+ shots.

After eight days off, rookie goalie Kevin Lankinen came back strong, stopping 37 of 39. Assuming they don't play him on back-to-back nights, it's great to see Lankinen finish on a high note with a Quality Start like that. All three Chicago goalies are signed to one-way deals next year. And looking at the numbers, not one of them had starter-worthy stats. The Hawks have anointed Lankinen as their guy, and will keep pushing that narrative. With Jonathan Toews (hopefully) returning next season, it is doubtful that the team has the ability to bring on an established netminder.

Defenseman Wyatt Kalynuk was pointless on Sunday, but he has eight points in his last 14 games. The 24-year-old was drafted when he was 20 and was already a college student, then he can basically become a free agent if he so chooses, even after just three years of college, once he turns pro. So Kalynuk didn't sign with Philadelphia, the team that drafted him, and instead signed with Chicago. His college numbers were massive – 78 points in 110 games. He then posted 10 points in eight games with Rockford as an AHL rookie, and he's continuing to post huge numbers at the NHL level. Color me impressed. He's seizing an offensive role when Ian Mitchell could not. He is still a little shaky defensively, and I wonder how he'll cope with Adam Boqvist returning to full health next season. A situation worth watching.

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Johnny Hockey picked up three points Sunday, giving him 15 points in his last 12 games. Too little too late for both Calgary and his fantasy owners. I had always considered him in that rare stratosphere of players who could get to 100 points and I thought he would have bounced back from a terrible 2019-20 to really surprise this year. But it was another dud. This late-season surge during meaningless games is just rubbing salt in the wound, isn't it? He has needed Matt Tkachuk and Elias Lindholm on his line to do anything. Fully 24 of his ES points have come playing with those two, whereas with Sean Monahan and (insert name here) he hadn't done much at all.

I think the Flames are ripe for an injection of youth next year. Monahan needs linemates and Dillon Dube and Derek Ryan aren't it. Will Andrew Mangiapane take the next step? Does Glenn Gawdin, who picked up his first NHL point Sunday, make the team? Or could they turn to one of their up-and-coming phenoms – either Conor Zary (24 points in 15 WHL games) or Jakob Pelletier (43 points in 28 QMJHL games)?

Mark Giordano had himself a huge game for fantasy owners – if any owners still had him active. He had just gone six games without a point so I'm sure a few had him benched. But Sunday he had two points, was plus-2, with three BLKS and added five SOG. He's had 17 SOG over the last three games. He'll be 38 in the fall and, as great a shape as he's in, I would be stunned if he reached 40 points. His power-play time shouldn't be as much as it is (2:36 per game in the final quarter). He has eight PPPts this season, after 11 last year and 21 the year prior. His shot volume is also on the decline.

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Josh Norris, who scored Sunday, is looking very promising as a point-per-game scorer in Ottawa in the very near future. They've been giving him the first-line treatment all year and his numbers have climbed steadily. He had 15 points in the first 30 games and 19 in the next 25.

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Other quick thoughts…

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Colin Blackwell, the surprise of the year as of three weeks ago, seriously came down to Earth since then. He went pointless and was minus-8 over his last 11 games.

What happened to Anthony Cirelli? He raced out the gate like a bat of hell with 15 points in 17 games, but then stumbled to just seven in his last 32. In the second half he played with Steven Stamkos a lot more (before Stamkos got hurt) and his PP ice time doubled. And for that his production…plummeted? Some guys just perform better when they're buried in a defensive role with weaker linemates. It's odd, but I've seen it before.

Adam Fox – pointless in six and minus-4. The reason? No Ryan Lindgren. Those two have been attached at the hip and with Lindgren in the lineup Fox was a lead contender for the Norris. No Lindgren? Fox has seriously stumbled. That's not a knock on Fox, but rather – he's been playing with K'Andre Miller, a rookie who isn't going to be Fox's defensive conscience.

Tomas Hertl has really kicked it into high gear down the stretch, with 15 points in his last 10 games. He also has 32 points in his last 32 games.

If Vegas wins tonight over Colorado, than the Golden Knights win the President's Trophy. Fifteen teams have never won the President's Trophy, and 11 teams have never been first in the NHL standings (i.e. four of those 15 teams were first, but that Trophy didn't exist yet). So Vegas will win this trophy before 14 teams do.

I said "too little too late" with regards to Johnny Gaudreau, but that's not technically true. Calgary could win all four of their remaining games and Montreal could lose their last two. It's just highly doubtful. And that's what it would take to get Calgary in (and I would have to put Calgary players back into my playoff draft list!).

Two coaches parted ways with their team: John Tortorella has left Columbus after six seasons, and Rick Tocchet has left Arizona after four seasons.

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See you next Monday.

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