Top 10 Potential Playoff Surprises
Tom Collins
2021-05-10
Now that most of the regular season has concluded and your hockey leagues have wrapped up, you're probably already thinking ahead to your playoff hockey pool. Pretty much every race is determined, and with a couple of exceptions, most of the playoff matches are set.
The first few rounds of a playoff draft are often the easiest: You simply take players from teams you think will go the deepest. However, that plan gets thrown into disarray quickly when you realize that three other people are loading up on players from the same teams you are.
So you switch tactics, looking at other teams and trying to figure out who will be a good sleeper pick, someone that you might be able to snag that others won't be targeting.
Below are 10 players that have the potential to surprise this postseason. For more help for your playoff pool, don't forget to purchase Dobber's Interactive Playoff Draft List, available for download later Monday. Here, you can choose the teams you think will win each round up to the final, and the list will spit out who should be the highest point-getters based on what teams you choose.
10. Peyton Krebs
It seems as every other postseason brings a rookie who surprises, and Krebs has the best opportunity to be that rookie this season. Much of this potential has to do with the health of Max Pacioretty. MaxPax has missed the last four games for Vegas, but there have not been many details on the injury. Maybe he comes back for the postseason, but if not, Krebs has been filling in on the top line for the past couple of games. With that said, Krebs did suffer an injury on Sunday when he took a puck in the face, so you need to keep an eye out on whether he will miss any time (there was no update as of Sunday night).
Over the past year, I have tried to hammer home the point that Neal Pionk is a much better fantasy defenseman than Morrissey. However, Jets' coach Paul Maurice must not read my column because he keeps giving Morrissey the plum minutes over Pionk. Going into the postseason, I would still take Pionk first, but Morrisey might be worth a late-round pick. Morrissey is on the top power-play unit, averages 23:39 per night and starts in the offensive zone 51.5 per cent of the time.
8. Lars Eller
Eller is a boom-or-bust playoff performer. In 2014, he had 13 points in 17 games with Montreal. When the Caps won the Stanley Cup in 2018, Eller had 18 points in 24 games. In his six other playoffs, he has 14 points in 45 games. Nothing has changed for Eller this season compared to previous years, so there's nothing that would suggest if this will be a dynamite postseason for him. He's worthy of a late-round flier if you've already loaded up on some of the Caps’ big guns.
7. Tyler Bozak
You might only be interested in Bozak in a deep playoff pool, but you want to draft players who are healthy and are on hot streaks going into the postseason. Bozak missed 24 games earlier this season but has been productive since he's been back in the lineup. He has 13 points in his last 16 games, averaging 16:33 minutes per night in that span.
6. Ryan Ellis
Ellis would be a fantasy stud if he could stay healthy. His 82-game pace for the last five seasons is 42, 64, 41, 60 and 44. However, because of injuries, he's only cracked the 40-point barrier once. This year, an upper-body injury caused him to miss all of March and the first bit of April. He's found his groove lately, with eight points in his last nine games. He plays almost 24 minutes a night, averages two shots per game and gets a decent amount of power-play time.
A big potential breakthrough is the Oilers' former fourth overall pick. I'm a big believer in what he can offer, and while he hasn't had a great season, he's been slightly better as of late. He had 13 points in his first 37 games, but now has 12 points in his last 15. He's also been playing with Connor McDavid quite frequently (at least 85 per cent of Puljujarvi's even-strength minutes since March 18 have been alongside McDavid).
4. Martin Necas
It wouldn't surprise me if Necas goes undrafted in half of the playoff pools this season, but he's quietly put up an excellent campaign. His 41 points are only two behind Vincent Trocheck for second on the Hurricanes. His 11 power-play points are impressive considering he's on the second unit. He's also been consistent, with a points-per-game mark of at least 0.64 in each of the four quarters.
The Penguins were a mess this year when it came to their lines and determining who would have chemistry together. The entire second line missed a combined 57 games and rarely played in the same game. On top of those guys, another five forwards missed at least 12 games. So you are forgiven if you accidentally overlook the season Kapanen had. His 30 points in 40 games would put him on pace for 62 points over an 82-game season. That’s impressive as he missed all of training camp and the first three games of the campaign dealing with immigration issues and then quarantining once he arrived in Pittsburgh. His production is also impressive when you realize he picked up most of it at even strength. He would often go three or four games with little to no power-play time, which led to only four power-play points.
It's always a good idea to take whatever defenseman is on the top power play. If you believe in the Wild this year, Spurgeon could be a sneaky good pick. His power-play production is underrated as he's never been used as the top guy for a full season. However, in the last 20 games, he's been on the ice for 64.2 per cent of Minnesota's power-play minutes, compared to 49.1 per cent in his first 33 games. In those 20 games, he has 15 points and seven power-play points. More importantly, the Wild ranked last on the power play on March 31 with a 9.5 per cent conversion rate. In games since April 1, the Wild have the top power play at 34.6 per cent. The team isn't going to mess around with this in the postseason.
1. Sam Bennett
Every year when I write this column, I like to point out a common mistake many people make in playoff drafts: They only look at the top six or so scorers on a team and neglect names further down the list. Bennett would be the best example this year of why you need to keep scanning. He's been dynamite since leaving Calgary, with six goals and 15 points in 10 games. He's averaging 18 minutes a night with the Panthers, is playing with superstar Jonathan Huberdeau and is on the top power-play unit. Maybe Hornqvist takes that PP spot once he's back in the lineup from an upper-body injury, but Bennett has been too successful to be immediately bumped down.