Welcome back to Forum Buzz, where I peruse the DobberHockey Forums and weigh in on active, heavily debated, or otherwise relevant recent threads, reminding folks just how great a resource the Forums are. Nearly anything might be covered here, other than trades and signings, which usually get their own separate write-ups on the main site and are also normally covered in the next day’s Ramblings, or questions that are specific to salary cap issues, which is the domain of the weekly Capped column. To access the specific forum thread on which a question is based, click on the “Topic” for that question.

Topic #1 – In a daily start, 12 team, H2H league with 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 6D, and 2G in active line-ups and counting G, A, P, +/-, PPG, PPA, SHP, GWG, SOG, FW, BLK, HIT as skater categories, a GM wants to keep three defensemen, with the choices being Ty Smith, Evan Bouchard, Moritz Seider, Matt Dumba, Alexander Romanov, and Rasmus Andersson. Which three should be kept? Or might it be wiser to keep more or fewer than three, with the keeps (14 total) at other positions being decreased or increased accordingly?

For sure at least two should be kept, namely Smith and Bouchard. Smith has amply shown he is a future blueline point producer and is in a nice situation in that he's not going to be pressured right away and the team around him should improve as he does. I like Bouchard because if you look at what Oscar Klefbom, who doesn't have a shell of the offensive gifts of Bouchard, did last season and what Tyson Barrie is doing in 2020-21, you can see the lure in holding him. Since it's all but a given that Barrie won't re-sign, I'm predicting Bouchard pushes Klefbom out of the PP1 picture to reap the resulting benefits.

Could a case be made to stop there and just keep two? Probably not, in that defensemen make up half the active skaters and this is a 12-team league, meaning 72 d-men need to be in active line-ups, so you don't want to ignore a position of importance. That being said, after Smith and Bouchard there is a pronounced drop off in quality.

Of the remaining four, for sure Romonov and Andersson should be omitted. I realize it's his first NHL season, and he's only 21, but Romanov doesn't seem to be showing signs of having a strong enough trajectory outside of multi-cat areas, which are easily obtained. Andersson was handed the keys to the blueline kingdom in Calgary, and faltered. Considering he had five points in his first six games, that means he's had a mere 14 in his next 45 contests. This despite heaps of ice time, a better than 50% OZ%, and taking the ice for more than 50% of Calgary's man advantage minutes, leading to him being ranked 23rd in defenseman PPTOI yet only tied for 46th in PPPts. Players I think of when I see Anderson's stats and metrics are Hampus Lindholm and former Calgary teammate T.J. Brodie, namely guys who were able to log a lot of minutes but despite getting deployed in situations where they could produce never quite managed to do so. Therefore, I'm tossing Andersson back into the draft pile under these circumstances.

After what we saw from Dumba a couple of seasons ago it's difficult not to hope he still has a great season or two in him. Moreover, it's not like anyone on the Wild blueline is racking up points. The issue is even when Dumba was scorching he barely saw 50% of his team's man advantage minutes. Since then his PP minutes and SOG rate have dropped with each season, such that, in reality, he's a long shot to bounce back. Still, a case could be made he's worth the risk in view of what he's done in the past and no one on the Minnesota blueline really providing any major impediment to his potential for repeated success.

Seider is playing well overseas, but might not be in the NHL next season or even in 2022-23. Keeping him is a bet on his future, which, although promising, might not be one like Smith or Bouchard, as he projects to be more of a multi-cat guy, albeit one who also should have some offensive flair. Stat stuffers are great, so maybe he's keepable even if he'd come with a wait.

In sum, surefire keepers are Smith and Bouchard, and no-go guys are Romanov and Andersson. Keeping both Dumba and Seider in hopes Dumba is able to bridge the gap until Seider arrives seems risky, but may be the way to go. Otherwise, trading a forward plus Seider for immediate blueline help – and third rearguard keeper – might be the route to take, letting Dumba go.

Topic #2 – In a 10 Team, Keep 5, H2H league with skater categories of G, A, STP, SOG, TOI, HITS, and BLKS and where 3C, 3LW, 3RW, and 4D start, would Jason Robertson and/or Martin Necas be potential keeps over any of Andrei Vasilevskiy, Nathan MacKinnon, Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrei Svechnikov, Thomas Chabot, or Mika Zibanejad?

I'm going to side with the responders in the forum and say, in a word, no. Yes, it is correct that both Robertson and Necas should finish within or just outisde the top 50 in points per game this season and figure to only get better; however, when one has only five keeper spots one has to think of the categories as well as the floor for each player.

Is there a world in which one or both of them outpoint Ehlers and/or Svechnikov next season? It's indeed possible; however, the 2020-21 Svechnikov seems to be a victim of poor linemates, as when he's found himself mostly on a line with Sebastian Aho his scoring has been above point per game pace. Despite spending the bulk of the season alongside the likes of Jordan Staal, Jesper Fast and Waggen Foegele, Svechnikov has still managed 2.7 SOG and over two hits per game. Also, while there's no denying Necas is clicking well with Vincent Trocheck, as I noted in an recent Goldipucks column Trocheck's numbers this season seem too high to be sustainable, in which case both he and his linemates would suffer next season.

Roberston is intriguing since he's a winger on a Dallas team that sorely needs help in that area due to its aging core. Moreover, he's done this without Tyler Seguin, whose return either will help Robertson directly if he plays with Seguin or indirectly because it will allow defenses to focus less on Robertson's line. The concern I have with Robertson is he might not be part the PP1 conversation for 2021-22; and unlike Necas, he's not managed to do well on PP2, with a PPt only every eight games. Looking at the 136 forwards who averaged 0.9 points per game or better in the last five full seasons, a mere one did so averaging fewer PPPts per game. With Tyler Seguin returning, someone has to be the odd man out when it comes to PP1, and that someone might well be Robertson, who also isn't great in HIT or BLK.

With "no brainer" keeps like MacKinnon and Vas, plus Zibanejad looking like his old self again, and Svechnikov and Ehlers (more on him next) who both seem like safer bets, I think these two – plus Chabot – are tough but necessary non-keeps. Try trading them – it can't hurt.

Topic #3 – In a 20 Team Dynasty with, for skaters, starters of 4C, 4LW, 4RW, 7D, 2U and categories of G, A, PTS, PIM, PPG, PPP, SHG, SHP, GWG, SOG, HIT, BLK, FOW, who'd be the better keeper out of each of these twosomes: (1) Mark Stone vs. Nikolaj Ehlers, (2) Brayden Point vs. Kyle Connor, (3) Gabriel Landeskog vs. Matthew Tkachuk, (4) Johnny Gaudreau vs. Taylor Hall?

I'll answer the question as posed. By that I mean I'll assume it's not possible to keep two from one group over both from another, nor that the twosomes could be grouped differently.

Stone seems like the easy answer for #1 given his stellar season and how well he's clicked with Max Pacioretty in Vegas. What concerns me, however, are that both his PP production and his Shooting Percentages are well above his norms, even as his SOG rate has cratered to a level not seen since before he stepped up his production starting in 2017-18. Yes, I get that Pacioretty is the shooter on the line, so Stone can be choosey as to when/if he shoots and making it plausible his SH% could rise as it has and he could still produce quite well despite so few SOG. But looking at the other 98 instances of wingers who averaged 1.1+ points per game in 40+ games dating back to the 2000-01 season, Stone's SOG per game is third to last, with 75% averaging a full SOG more per game than Stone. Between that and his abnormally high PP scoring rate, being in a non-recurring and offensively-favorable division, and the fact he's at his peak, I think he's more of a 75 to 80-point player who's just running very hot.

Ehlers produced well despite still being kept off the top lines at ES and on the PP. His SOG per game has risen for the third straight season; and despite having already missed and handful of games due to injury his PP scoring is tied for 49th among forwards, which is outstanding given he ranks 180th in PP TOI. He's also 25, and thus his best hockey is likely in front of him. He's also been very consistent, with 13-16 points in each of the first three quarters while playing in 13-15 games. On top of all this, he's had among the league's best IPPs – both overall and on the PP – in each of the last two seasons, including this one, when he's finally been able to skate with better players. This underscores that he's a points magnet and bodes well for a time when, ultimately, he gets more minutes and/or better linemates. Yes, he's not "the guy" in Winnipeg like Stone is in Vegas; however, the right keeper decision isn't solely based on one's profile but rather on who truly brings with him more value. I'm going against the grain and picking Ehlers. Rather than losing Stone, I'd try to sell high and hopefully either get someone who'd be a better keeper than either Hall or Gaudreau, if that's doable, or for a great draft pick.

As for Connor and Point, I've talked about both recently, Point in a Mailbag and Connor in a Goldipucks column. Point is intriguing because his 2020 playoff output was so impressive at such a young age that it literally puts him in a class consisting of him and Evgeni Malkin. Point also has been without Nikita Kucherov, with whom he has outstanding chemistry, as shown in those playoffs and the 2018-19 season. Yes, Point is only eligible as a center; however, he's one of only a few players in the league with a legitimate shot at 100+ points in a season due to his talent plus that of his teammates.

As for Connor, his goal scoring is helpful in this league due to the GWG and PPG categories; but it's looking less likely by the day that he'll turn into more than a point per game player, as his streak of three straight seasons of increased points per game scoring rate is coming to an end, this despite his IPPs never being higher, him still shooting the puck a ton, and ample PP Time. One change has been his ice time, which is down nearly 2:30 per game, with that likely the reason his scoring is well below the point per game mark. If Point was a winger or had better HIT, BLK or FOW, he'd be the easy pick, but Connor isn't better than Point, other than SOG and goals. In the end, the upside of Point is too difficult to not keep, especially when it seems like Connor's ceiling finally seems to be established after several seasons of climbing production.

The third group is tricky because Landeskog is a UFA. Colorado should have the money to sign him, with Landy likely eager enough to stay for him to make it economical for them to keep him. Tkachuk is a fine multi-cat player; however, his best season is looking more like an outlier due to what has since been proven to have been an unsustainably high shooting percentage. There is a lure in that Tkachuk is five years younger; however, with Landy being roughly on a par in terms of multi-cat and a good bet to stay with the high-powered Avs and on their superb top line, he has to be the choice.

Hall and Gaudreau is the battle of fantasy disappointments. It's difficult to believe a mere two seasons ago the two scored 92 and 99 points respectively. Hall, however, seems more removed from his superb seasons, as he failed to click with Jack Eichel and won't have the UFA lure he did a year ago. Gaudreau, although unequivocally a let-down, hasn't hit bottom like Hall has. There's always the thought that if he'd only get traded his spark would be reignited and he'd return to past glory, as he seems to be phoning it in these days, but even a Gaudreau going through the motions might be worth more than Hall. Beyond that, the last winger to score, as Gaudreau did, 99+ points at age 25 or younger without having previously tallied 90+ points was Dany Heatley who subsequently went on to have a 105 point season and two 82 point seasons. Granted, Heatley had his 105-point season at age 26, whereas Gaudreau's scoring slowed; yet it's still a favorable comparison. This one is perhaps the toughest call of the four, as the scoring range for each of them is quite wide. I'm going with the better downside and more realistic potential to rebound that Gaudreau offers. As noted above though, if somehow Stone could be kept instead, he'd be the pick.

Topic #4 – In a Cap, points only league where a GM is keeping Auston Matthews, David Pastrnak, Jack Eichel, and Elias Pettersson, there's room to keep two more players, with the choices being Jack Hughes, Tim Stuetzle, and Alexis Lafreniere. Who should be kept?

To me, this is a situation ripe for making a trade to solve the odd man out problem. I covered Eichel in Goldipucks, where I concluded he's not likely to improve more than the best we've already seen from him. I previously mentioned the closest player comparable for Pettersson in view of his early career metrics is Paul Stastny, which is not ideal. The problem is the value for each has never been lower. Moreover, Pettersson's value could plummet if he continues to fall short of lofty expectations. Although Eichel likely will see his value bounce back, I think the ideal time to trade him has passed too.

As such, what to do is dangle a young player, plus Eichel or Pettersson as a sweetener, to enable a two for one deal, receiving a young stud rearguard in return. Shoot for the moon (Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Adam Fox or Shea Theodore) but settle on Rasmus Dahlin, whose value also has taken a hit but who stands a very good chance to rebound, as you don't do what he did as a teen then fail to live up to expectations. Given that Dahlin's value is low, if it is a two for one deal the GM who owns Dahlin should toss in a sweetener, probably in the form of a draft pick.

As for which youngster to move as part of the deal, Hughes is the one who's closest to not being on his ELC, so in a cap league that is a factor. Stutzle has a high ceiling; however, Josh Norris is showing he has the makings of a great center as well, clouding the picture in Ottawa. I'd try not to move Lafreniere if at all possible; he's on the best team and his failure to produce as a rookie is seemingly more a function of him being brought along slowly than lack of talent on his part.

Pick one of Eichel and Pettersson (I'd have it be Petterson) plus one of Stutzle and Hughes (I'd have it be Stutzle) and see if those are enough to land Dahlin, or even try to swing for the fences by first trying to get Makar, Hughes, Fox, or Theodore, before settling on Dahlin. The team gets a core defenseman keeper and it no longer has to make the difficult choice of who to not keep.

What if this is something the GM doesn't want to do, or is unable to make happen because the other GMs being unwilling to make any deal? I'd keep Lafreniere, due to his team and upside, and Hughes, who has company in the form of Aleksander Barkov, Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane, and Scott Hartnell as players that, since 2000-01 and like Hughes, played in 100+ games as a teen yet failed to cumulatively score at even a point per every other game rate. Stutzle would end up the tough non-keep.

Topic #5 – In a league counting G, A, PTS, +/-, PPP, SOG, PIM and where both are LW and RW eligible, who holds more value: Anthony Mantha or Oliver Bjorkstrand?

This is a toughie, as both are 26 years old and also have uncertainties that loom. For Bjorkstrand it's whether the team will begin a rebuild under what will be a new coach. For Mantha, it's whether he can avoid his history of fluky injuries as well as the fate that befell Jakub Vrana this season.

Mantha, despite his injury issues, had been on a two-season streak of increasing scoring and SOG rates, plus ice time, culminating in a 72-point full-season pace in 2019-20 for a team that was dead last in goals scored. Bjorkstrand finished last season with point per game scoring over his final 30 contests, firing 108 pucks on net in the process. This season he was unable to build upon the same level of success; however, he's still fared pretty well all things considered.

One issue with Mantha is he's all but assured to be stuck on PP2 for at least next season and perhaps longer given that Washington has found success generally using only Alex Ovechkin and T.J. Oshie as its wingers on the top unit, that is unless somehow Ovechkin doesn't return and Tom Wilson wouldn't get first crack at his vacant spot. On the other hand, although Bjorkstrand has been a PP2 player this season, there is a foreseeable path toward him being on PP1 given his talent versus that of other Blue Jacket forwards and the fact that 2019-20 saw his PP time rise with each quarter, suggesting the same could happen again.

In the end, I'm going with Bjorkstrand, as he has a 60-point floor and high ceiling, and is likelier to be a fixture on the top line at ES and/or on the PP. He also has the better injury track record and offers at least a good, if not in some cases better, output in multicat areas as Mantha. As for Mantha, beyond his well-documented injury history, there's rightful concern that he might face similar ice time hurdles as Vrana. Yes, the Caps gave up a lot to get Mantha, enough that it likely will provide him ample opportunity to succeed. Without a path to PP1, and seeing how he had several games of sub-16:30 ice time before Alex Ovechkin was injured, things seem eerily familiar to what happened to Vrana and held him back.

Topic #6 – In a league counting G, A, +/-, PIM, PPPts, SOG, HIT and BLK as skater categories, and with a focus on long term value, which five of these forwards should be kept: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Philip Tomasino, Marco Rossi, Josh Norris, Peyton Krebs, Connor McMichael, Morgan Frost, Anthony Cirelli, Shane Pinto?

I know the outlook is long term, but Kuznetsov has to be one of the five, as he's the only one who offers a "sure thing" in that he's locked into the top six in Washington. Yes, his ice times and scoring rates are set to decline for the second straight season; however, he's still a 60-point downside player, which could well be more than any of these other players become.

Rossi also is a keep, as he arguably offers the highest upside. What's also beneficial for him is he can walk into Minnesota next season and be guaranteed a top line spot, especially since he can play center, a position where they have no one with top tier talent.

Tomasino likely has the second-best upside; and as shown by Eeli Tolvanen, Nashville is willing to make room for a young player to succeed. What worries me though is no Nashville forward has posted even 65 points in a full season in more than a decade. Perhaps the likes of Tolvanen and Tomasino will be ones to change that, and for that reason I'm putting him in the top five.

After that the picture gets cloudier, other than Cirelli, whom I believe doesn't have what it takes to be a top six forward. Sure – maybe he gets to play with talented skaters at some point; but if that happens his upside is likely similar to what we're seeing from Chandler Stephenson this season in Vegas, who's occupying the coveted third spot on a line with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty but who still has not managed to score at a 60-point pace due to them being points magnets and him not getting top line time on the PP.

Norris is intriguing; however, as noted above between him and Tim Stutzle there's a two-headed monster for top line center, hurting the value of each. Pinto already made his Ottawa debut, but I think there are others, Norris and Stutzle included, who will bring more to the table.

That leaves Krebs, Frost, and McMichael for the last two spots, and I like Frost and McMichael, as they will be hitting their stride when the aging core on Philly and Washington will be stepping aside or slowing down. Krebs should do fine too; however, Vegas has not historically been a team that has had high scorers and his path to a major role might be more hindered than that of these other two. I all, the five would be Kuznetsov, Rossi, Tomasino, Frost and McMichael.

Topic #7 – In a 14 Team Roto league starting 8F, 4D, 2G, with no bench but 2IR and categories of G, A, PPP, GWG, HIT, W, SV%, SO, each team has $200 to spend and can keep up to four players at their previous year's price. Who should the four keepers be among: Alex Ovechkin ($60), Tom Wilson ($32), Brady Tkachuk ($31), Aleksander Barkov ($24), Artemi Panarin ($19), Erik Karlsson ($17), Mika Zibanejad ($15), Philipp Grubauer ($11), Jordan Binnington ($11), Neal Pionk ($6), Vincent Trocheck ($1), Nick Suzuki ($1), Matt Grzelcyk ($1), and Jared Spurgeon ($1)?

In a league without SOG, I'm surprised Ovi and Tkachuk went for so much. Yes, they hit anything that moves; however, their SOG value is wasted. Neither one is a keep; Wilson isn't one either, as although his scoring rate is up his hits rate is way down.

The next question is whether to keep a goalie, and, if so, which one. Grubauer looks like a steal; but he's a UFA to be, and we've seen from Jacob Markstrom and Sergei Bobrovsky that UFA goalies have been faring poorly after they sign their huge deals. Although Grubauer was a very good goalie as a back-up early in his career, for him to be playing so much better than in any previous Avs season just when he happens to be up for a huge payday is…….worrisome.

Binnington has definitely disappointed; however, unless the Blues get a better back-up he's locked into being a heavy workload starter for better or worse. With two of the three goalie categories rewarding goalies who play more, he's a tempting keep. For now let's put both of them down as maybes.

The other choices boil down to Panarin, who's basically a lock, Barkov, Zibanejad, Trocheck and Suzuki. I wouldn't keep Suzuki for the simple reason that if he was available at $1 going into this season I don't think he's done enough to drive up his price. Trocheck, on the other hand, has rebounded in a big way. However, as I stated in a Goldipucks piece, his metrics suggest he's grossly overachieved this season. Even still though, his floor probably is 60 points, which is pretty good for a guy who hits a lot, is a PP1 staple, and comes at a price tag of just $1.

I covered Barkov in the same piece as Trocheck, and I think he's turned a corner to becoming a top guy. Though with Zibanejad, who looks like the Zibs of 2019-20, retainable for less and offering more in the way of hits, I'd probably opt for him over Barkov.

The other two skater keeps are probably Trocheck and Zibanejad. That makes three keepers, meaning a goalie will figure into the mix. If this decision can wait until we see where Grubauer signs and if St. Louis inks a better back-up, then that would be the way to go. If a decision needs to be made now, however, I'd be inclined to go with Binnington, since the Blues seem to be "all in" on him. I worry that Grubauer will indeed disappoint as I tried to think of the last UFA goalie who didn't and came up empty.

Topic #8 – In a 12 team league (1.25 points for a D point, 1.75 for a D PPPt; 1 point for a F point, 1.5 for a F PPPt) keeper, would it make sense for a GM to trade Roope Hintz for Mathew Barzal?

I've said before that while pure talent is important in fantasy, it can be trumped by deployment and/or the system in which one plays. If put into identical situations, most likely would agree Barzal would perform better than Hintz. But as we know Barzal plays under Barry Trotz where emphasis is more so on winning by preventing the other team from scoring than it is with offense, and he'd doesn't have very gifted linemates. As a result, Barzal's talent is stifled.

Meanwhile, Hintz has taken advantage of a more wide-open offensive system that's been used in Dallas this season, not to mention the absence of Tyler Seguin. With Seguin back in the fold next season, it's possible what we're seeing from Hintz might not be repeated. Then again, with Seguin set to turn 30, it's not unrealistic for Hintz to emerge as the new #1 center, or if not then a 1A or 1B – that is, perhaps Seguin might no longer be "the guy" as he's been in Dallas. Long story short, there are question marks surrounding Hintz's future; but he's likely done enough to not be elbowed out of the top six and PP1.

Barzal is signed through 2022-23, after which he's an RFA. He's "stuck" in Long Island for better or worse. Then again, Barry Trotz is approaching age 60 and his last coaching gig was four seasons; so Barzal's time playing in a defensive system might not be indefinite. What I also like about Barzal is we've seen his floor, in that it really can't get worse than this. If he gets better wingers and/or better deployment, he could do much better. On the other hand, Hintz might not be able to sustain his superb output, although his IPPs and secondary assists numbers are pretty strong.

If Seguin wasn't in the picture I'd have no hesitation opting for Hintz, but that's an unknown which is more likely to be a net negative for Hintz rather than a net positive. Meanwhile, as I said, Barzal's floor is a 65-point scoring pace, with that able to increase if the Islanders loosen up as a team and/or if he has more talented players on his line. It's close, but here I'm opting for the surer thing in Barzal and making this trade.

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Questions for Mailbag column needed

The upcoming edition of the mailbag has room for another question or two. To get yours to me, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.