Capped: Most intriguing free agents, team by team – Part 2

Logan Doyle

2021-05-13

In part II of our team-by-team unrestricted free agent (UFA) review. In reverse alphabetical order,  we'll look who I think is the most intriguing UFA for St. Louis, San Jose, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Ottawa, and the New York Rangers.

There are a couple teams in this group that are lacking anything of real UFA fantasy value. This article could go off the rails with improvisation as a result. This should be interesting. Part 1, by the way, can be found here.

I will skip any further pre-amble. Let us dive right in.

St. Louis Blues – Jaden Schwartz – Age 28, LW ($5.3m)

I could have just as easily chosen Mike Hoffman here, but the prospect of life-long St. Louis Blues, Jaden Schwartz, wearing a different jersey next season is way more intriguing to me.

Tyler Bozak is also a UFA for St. Louis, but his fantasy impact is relatively small. He will make a good third line centre for a strong team at a much lower cap hit. 

The reason I see Schwartz moving on is due to the restricted free agents St. Louis has to sign this summer. There is only so much room for top six wingers. Robert Thomas & Jordan Kyrou look to be ready for larger roles next year. Then there's Ivan Barbashev & Zach Sanford who look like solid third liners with a bit of offensive punch. 

Doug Armstrong doesn't mess around. He has his salary limit for each player. We've seem him walk away from fan favorites in negotiations when the numbers don't work for him, Alex Pietrangelo is the best example.

There is a 50-50 change Schwartz re-signs; players love playing in St. Louis. If he's willing to meet Armstrong's price, then he'll continue as a Blue. With Armstrong having Kyrou and Thomas chomping at the bit for a regular top six role there's little pressure on him to bend in contract demands. The price Schwartz will be demanding will likely be similar to what Armstrong signs Kyrou and Thomas for combined.

Re-signing in St. Louis expect similar production to what we've seen over the past couple years. I don't see a significant bump in salary if he stays either. He might push $6M but not over it. If he moves on, I expect multiple teams to go in search of his services. This could drive his price tag into the mid-$6M range. A team like the New York Islanders will be scavenging for scoring this offseason in a big way. Seeing one of Schwartz or Hoffman land on Long Island wouldn't shock me in the least.

San Jose Sharks – Umm… uhh… All I have is YIKES!

Alex Barabanov, Marcus Sorensen, Kurtis Gabriel, Partick Marleau, Matt Nieto & Greg Pateryn round out the Sharks UFA's in 2021.  Gabriel offers some deep dive penalty minute value if you're desperate & Pateryn provides some emergency hit & block production if you get stuck.

There is nothing to see here.

This spells another disastrous season for the Sharks in 2021-22 unless Doug Wilson can make some magical trades & find some cap relief.

Rather than skip the sharks and give up discussing a player altogether…

St. Louis Blues – Mike Hoffman – RW, Age 31 ($4M)

Looks like I don't have to choose between Hoffman and Schwartz after all. His season really felt a bit underwhelming to me. It was decent, but a clear drop off from his time in Florida.

If St. Louis can only re-sign one winger of the two, it'll likely be Schwartz. At 31, I suspect we see Hoffman take another shorter term deal and sign for a similar cap-hit. Barring a really strong playoff performance he hasn't really had a season that turned heads.

I don't think we'll see Hoffman sit unsigned for long this summer. There are several teams that would like to sign a 30-goal scorer between $4M and $5M.  A dark horse here is the Seattle Kraken. They might swoop in and give Hoffman an offer containing an extra year to lock up some goal scoring.

Wherever he lands, I don't expect him to end up with a huge salary increase.

Pittsburgh Penguins – Might be worse options than San Jose.

There clearly won't be a lot of turnover with this roster come 2021-22 without trade action.

Teddy Blueger is the biggest name RFA they have to re-sign. I think there's more offence here than he's been able to show to this point. Mostly due to opportunity but there's feels like a bit of Bryan Rust to him that intrigues me as an ultra-sleeper type player next year. No, I don't think he'll push a point-per-game, but I think there's 50+ point upside there.  

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If Pittsburgh doesn't protect Blueger this just might be Seattle's selection in the expansion draft.

Okay, I've spilt a little ink on the Penguins. I have digressed enough.

Philadelphia Flyers – Brian Elliott, Age 36, Goalie ($1.5M)  

For the third team in a row. There really is no UFA of notable value. 

Elliott has been a good 'soldier' for the Flyers and a great mentor for Carter Hart over the past couple of seasons. This season did not go well for several reasons, poor goaltending is at or near the top of the list of those reasons.

It is more than likely the Flyers look to upgrade behind Hart. There are some intriguing options on the market as well, James Reimer, Jonathan Bernier, Jaroslav Halak. They will all be more expensive, possibly twice as much or more than Elliott but also provide more stable goaltending.

There is the possibility the Flyers re-sign him due to the relationship he has built with Hart. There's also the possibility they re-sign him because he will be one of the cheapest free agent goalie options on the market.

If he leaves Philadelphia, he seems destined to land in a much smaller role similar to Ryan Miller in Anaheim.

Staying in Philadelphia is the one viable option Elliott has to maintaining fantasy relevance in 2021/22. Anywhere else his value drops due to an expected decrease in starts.

For deep pools Elliott should maintain spot-starter value if he signs elsewhere. There is always the potential he lands in a prime spot such as Tampa Bay which will keep him on he periphery of fantasy radars.

Ottawa Senators – Derek Stepan, Age 30, Center ($6.5M)

The Senators were exploring trade options for Stepan before his injury. There was a desire to be closer to his family. If not for the injury Stepan would be playing for a west coast team.

There is no doubt Stepan is moving on. With his declining production his next contract will be significantly lower. It has been three seasons since Stepan produced at over a .5 point-per-game pace.   

The projection model has Stepan signing for $1.7M. At age 30, Stepan is a strong bounce-back candidate on a cap-friendly deal. The definition of bounce-back should be unpacked a little bit here. I don't hold expectations of Stepan push 60 points. I do believe there's potential Stepan can return to a 40-50 point player given the right situation.

Depending on Stepan's goal with his next contract, to stay close to his family or sign with a Stanley Cup contending team, assuming those two options remain exclusive of one another, he should float between a second- and third-line center role and receive time on a second power play unit.

In a lot of pools Stepan is floating on the waiver wire. Definitely a player to watch or even target in deep pools as a sneaky depth add. With his next cap hit, where he lands is definitely something to keep an eye on.

Check back next week for part III.

(all stats from frozentools.com, all salary information from capfriendly.com)

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