Ramblings: Borgström signs; Kostin starts; Quinn fired; Monahan surgery; playoff previews – May 13

Michael Clifford

2021-05-13

Henrik Borgström signed a two-year extension with the Chicago Blackhawks, carrying a cap hit of $1M per season. He was traded to the Blackhawks as part of the Brett Connolly cap dump from the Panthers, as it was clear the team was ready to move on from The Borg.

Where his future goes, who knows. But he will have the opportunity to crack the lineup as the keys get turned over to the kids. Just look at the lineups the team threw on the ice this year; Borgström will have a shot. It is all up to him to make the best of it.

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David Quinn has been fired by the New York Rangers. This seemed likely after everyone was cleaned out following the Artemi PanarinTom Wilson incident. We have no idea what was going on behind closed doors, but new GMs tend to like to have their own coaches, and here we are.

I am ambivalent about Quinn. Maybe he's a good coach, I don't really know. What I do know is that he purposefully had a DeAngelo-J. Johnson pairing for a few games earlier in the year, and anyone with even passing knowledge of the NHL player pool knew what a complete disaster that would be, and it was: 0-3 in goals for/against, 41.7% expected goal share. It is just one example of where a really, obviously bad idea was really obvious to everyone except the guy making the lineup. And when you're that blind to your players' deficiencies, you probably need to go.  

Alex wrote about the firing here.

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Klim Kostin in St. Louis:

Kostin is a guy I've been excited to see in the NHL since he was drafted. I have hopes he can fill a similar role to Max Comtois, playing middle-6 minutes and putting up 20-goal and triple-digit-hit seasons. He still has a ways to go before he can be like Comtois, but that he's even in the NHL is a good start.

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Sean Monahan had hip surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. Maybe there is a very good reason why he had a very bad year.

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If you want to take part in Dobber's bracket challenge, just click through that link there.

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And for those needing some help with playoff pools, grab the Dobber 2021 Interactive Playoff List! It is customizable for your own league or just go with our own picks. There is something for everyone who is interested in the 2021 postseason.

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Speaking of playoffs, I wanted to take some time to talk about the series before the actual postseason begins this weekend. I have the next two Ramblings so let's do exactly that. Today we'll talk about the Central and the East, as they've finished all their games, and tomorrow we'll talk about the North and West.

Carolina/Nashville

The seasons series saw Carolina soundly take a number of games from Nashville, with Nashville only winning two of eight games through the regular season between the two. Curiously, two of those eight games came right at the end of the season with the Preds winning the final two games of the season against the 'Canes.

But we need to clarify one thing: Nashville's push over the second half of the season was all related to goaltending. On March 14th, the team was 11-16-1. Over the next two months, they would go 20-7-1. Those 28 games saw the team post a .937 save percentage at all strengths, first in the league by a wide, wide margin. The next-closest team was the Islanders at .922, meaning the gap between first and second (.015) was the same between second and 14th-place St. Louis at .907. They also had a shooting percentage over 10.7 percent, a top-10 mark in the league. That pushed them to first in the league in PDO. That, combined with them being under a 46 percent expected goal share in those 28 games, doesn't bode well here.

Conversely, the Hurricanes were top-5 by expected goal share in that stretch, at all strengths, and both Nedeljkovic and Mrazek have had very good seasons. If Carolina's goaltending can match up to Nashville's, or if Saros isn't Vezina-calibre as he's been for a while, this could be a short series.

Even if Nashville were to pull off the upset, they get the winner of Tampa Bay/Florida. I don't think this is the underdog to pick from in your playoff pools.

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Tampa Bay/Florida

This one is a little bit tougher to handicap for two reasons: the Panthers won't have Aaron Ekblad while the Lightning will have both Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Now, what kind of game shape will those two guys be in? That is a very good question, but Tampa Bay has not been at full strength all year, and are getting back two very key pieces.

On the other hand, the Panthers have still looked great even with Ekblad out, coming in just behind Tampa Bay in expected goal share over the last six weeks while being a top-5 team offensively. There aren't a lot of teams that can go toe-to-toe with the Lightning, but the Panthers are likely one of them.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but this could come down to the health of Sam Bennett. He wasn't at practice yesterday and missed their last game of the season. This could be just protection but even if he's in for Game 1, it seems clear Bennett isn't completely healthy. If they don't have their typically-great top-6, this could be a tough slog against a Tampa team that can run three lines easily.

Tampa Bay should be favoured here but I wouldn't be surprised to see a Florida win. The Panthers are cruising and we don't know how good Kucherov/Stamkos will actually be. And, if they win, the Panthers have a shot against either Carolina or Nashville. As far as underdog teams go, this is one of my favourites to pick some players from after the elite teams have been picked clean.

A bonus:

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Pittsburgh/NY Islanders

We do need to talk about the Anders Lee injury. He was injured on March 11th, and at that point, this was New York's stats at 5-on-5:

  • 2.31 xGF per 60, 1.93 xGA per 60, 54.4 percent expected goal share
  • 2.66 GF per 60, 1.88 GA per 60, 58.6 percent actual goal share

Those are all really, really good marks. But things changed once he was injured, and then the team incorporated Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri a month after that. So, in sum, since Anders Lee's injury, these are the team's 5-on-5 stats:

  • 2.21 xGF per 60, 2.16 xGA per 60, 50.5 percent expected goal share
  • 2.23 GF per 60, 2.04 GA per 60, 52.8 percent actual goal share

There is more to it than simply just Lee getting injured, but that's moved Leo Komarov into a top-line role, they're still figuring out how to use Zajac/Palmieri, and they've had some minor injuries. It isn't just one injury; it's the cascading effects since.

Now, curiously enough, Pittsburgh's 5-on-5 numbers are virtually identical, at least by expected goals, to New York's over that span. Things start to separate when we go just the last month with Jeff Carter in the mix, but we just need to be aware that Pittsburgh hasn't been on a tear at 5-on-5, either. At least not defensively.

This is a case like Nashville where I think the Islanders have a shot at winning here, but I don't think they get past the second round, which means I don't really like loading up on them as an underdog. I do think they make more sense than Nashville, though.

Washington/Boston

At this point, it's hard to know what to make of Washington. Alex Ovechkin has played one game in three weeks, Evgeny Kuznetsov has one game played in May (and it was May 1st), and John Carlson was banged up down the stretch. Those are three very key pieces of the team about whom we don't have a real clear indication of their health. Ovi played one game to end the year, but that doesn't tell us much about how his line will perform when the puck drops.

On the flipside, the Bruins looked like a juggernaut down the stretch. Yes, a lot of their games were against Buffalo, but they had a three-game stretch against the Islanders/Caps where they posted a 60-plus percent expected goal share, and since their final game against the Sabres on May 1st, they lead the league in expected goal share (over 65 percent). This team looks like they've been re-born since acquiring Taylor Hall, and look like the Cup contender we all thought they would be.

Regardless, this should be a close matchup. Ovechkin is still Ovechkin, the second line duo of Mantha-Backstrom has been excellent since the trade deadline, and they have likely a more effective third line than Boston does. It shouldn't be a massive shock if the Caps win, though the Bruins are heavily favoured here.

This is one of the series where I wouldn't mind picking from the underdog once the stars are gone, though I imagine a lot of people will have the same thought. Even with the injuries, the Caps were playing good hockey down the stretch, going 7-2-1 over their final 10 games with half those games coming against playoff teams, and dealing with extensive injuries. The Bruins are the favourite, but the Caps are good, and are looking to shock the world here.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Apr 18 - 19:04 MIN vs SEA
Apr 18 - 20:04 WPG vs VAN
Apr 18 - 21:04 CGY vs S.J
Apr 18 - 21:04 COL vs EDM
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Apr 18 - 22:04 L.A vs CHI

Starting Goalies

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LANE HUTSON MTL
JURAJ SLAFKOVSKY MTL
AUSTON MATTHEWS TOR
CONNOR MCDAVID EDM
SIDNEY CROSBY PIT

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MARC-ANDRE FLEURY MIN
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THATCHER DEMKO VAN
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LINE COMBOS

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26.6 GABRIEL VILARDI MARK SCHEIFELE KYLE CONNOR
18.3 TYLER TOFFOLI SEAN MONAHAN NIKOLAJ EHLERS
13.5 NINO NIEDERREITER ADAM LOWRY MASON APPLETON

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