Kevin Hayes will be having core surgery. At present time, he doesn't appear likely to miss training camp, which is obviously very good news for the Flyers. He is a key piece of this team with him and Couturier being a 1-2 punch down the middle. Anyway:

.@nhlFlyers center @KevinPHayes12 will need core-muscle surgery, which may take place in the next week, per GM Chuck Fletcher.

— Sam Carchidi (@BroadStBull) May 17, 2021

As we have seen from players in recent memory, this is something that can take a couple months to just heal, let alone get back in game shape. Remember last year, Steven Stamkos had his surgery in early March, before the pandemic broke out. Five months later, he managed to play a few minutes in one game. In that sense, this is good news for Philly and Hayes as he's getting it done somewhat early, but in a normal year, this would have been done a month ago. At this point, he has four months to recover and get in shape for training camp.

It makes sense now why the Flyers seemed so inconsistent, right? Sean Couturier was fighting a hip injury for most of the season while Kevin Hayes requires surgery that might see him out until next season is underway (TBD on that one). This team should still be good, if everyone is healthy. I hope they don't tinker too much this summer.

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I have to laugh at the NHL.

Sam Bennett gets a one-game suspension for cross-checking from behind, yet Ryan McDonagh got nothing for this hit on Anthony Duclair:

No hearing today for Ryan McDonagh following this hit on #FlaPanthers Anthony Duclair. Was assessed a minor for boarding. #GoBolts

pic.twitter.com/nO2gfSlPXh

— NHL News (@PuckReportNHL) May 17, 2021

I really would love to see an explanation from the NHL for this. That was a play that got absolutely nothing from DoPS, but this one is worth a one-game suspension:

. @FlaPanthers Sam Bennett has been suspended one game for his hit on Blake Coleman. Thoughts? pic.twitter.com/YyE3zLWKmr

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 17, 2021

There is little difference between the two. Both are hits from behind, with the small difference that Bennett had his hands up to his chest and drove forwards, while McDonagh followed through with his hands in driving Anthony Duclair into the boards. I really, genuinely want someone from the DoPS to explain why one is worth a one-game suspension and one is worth two minutes in the box. They need to clarify these situations.  

*

The Bruins tied their series with the Capitals one game apiece via Brad Marchand's overtime goal early in the first extra frame. That they even got there was thanks to a tally from Taylor Hall late in the third period to get us a 3-3 game and yet another playoff overtime.

Jake DeBrusk moved up to the third line and looked good but part of that may have been Lars Eller leaving in the second period and not returning. It appeared to be a lower-body thing, but who knows in the postseason. That would be two centres down for Washington.

It was a good back-and-forth game and this has proven an entertaining series to start.

*

Carolina controlled their game with Nashville basically start to finish, skating to a 5-2 win and a 1-0 lead in the series. Brett Pesce ended up playing, having been a game-time decision, and skated over 21 minutes, posting two assists, three shots, two blocks, and five hits. A pretty good fantasy night, all around.

I am not sure what is going on with Nashville at the moment, but Eeli Tolvanen and Rocco Grimaldi were scratches while Colton Sissons led the team's forwards in 5-on-5 ice time. The team appears to be dealing with some nagging injuries, so hopefully those can get cleared up quickly for Game 2. Too many games like this will be a quick series.   

*

Poking around through some end-of-year stats and found a couple interesting names to talk about. First, Jeff Skinner.

Yes, it was a terrible year for Skinner. He had just seven goals in 53 games, including no goals for his first 19. That is just flat-out bad, but there is some hope of turning things around.

First, some of his end-of-year stats were fine, anyway. He had 0.85 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, which is actually a career-low for him, but it wasn't far off his mark from 2018-19 of 0.88, a season that saw him score 40 goals.

Beyond that, he was 7^th out of 201 forwards in high-danger shot attempts (minimum 600 5-on-5 minutes). The other guys in the top 10: Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Warren Foegele, Nino Niederreiter, Joel Eriksson-Ek, Andrei Svechnikov, Carter Verhaege, and Aleksander Barkov. That is two guys from the Leafs, three from the Hurricanes, two from Florida, Tkachuk, Eriksson-Ek, and Skinner. In other words, he's found himself among either the elite offensive teams, or among elite players (which Eriksson-Ek has proved himself to be now). Whatever the individual reader's opinion on Skinner, the only other forward on that list with poor scoring rates was Svechnikov, and he shot just over seven percent.

Over the last two seasons, Skinner is 8^th among forwards in high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 (minimum 1250 minutes). The others in the top 10 are: Brendan Gallagher, Tkachuk, Anders Lee, Auston Matthews, Zach Hyman, Warren Foegele, Timo Meier, William Nylander, and Zach Parise. By individual expected goals, he's 10^th.

This is all to say that Skinner is far from a dead fantasy asset. In cap leagues his hit is hard to swallow, but in non-cap leagues, there may not be a better buying opportunity next drafts, provided they don't blow it up and trade Jack Eichel. If they do, well, it may be hard for Skinner to find his prior form.

But if Buffalo somewhat stays the course, and Skinner can get some time with Eichel, I still think there's a 30-goal scorer here. He just turned 29 years old a couple days ago and he'll get a long, full offseason to train. He just needs a good offensive centre to play with, no offence to Curtis Lazar.

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The other interesting name to talk about was Foegele.

What if I told you that Warren Foegele and Andrei Svechnikov have virtually identical 5-on-5 scoring rates for their careers? Because they do: Foegele is at 0.74 over the last three years while Svechnikov is at 0.75. Now, Foegele is four years older and I think Svech ends up in the Hall of Fame someday, so I'm not saying there the same player. What I am saying is that Foegele has been a good scorer for them in limited minutes, and I think there's upside.

Individual expected goals (ixG) are a tricky thing. What readers basically need to know is that there are two big determinants: shot type and shot location. As for the second one, conventional wisdom – backed by the research – is that shots from closer to the net have a higher chance of going in. Therefore, theoretically, guys with a high xG rate should be our top goal scorers.

But hockey doesn't necessarily work that way and shooter talent is a real thing. The top two goal scorers at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes over the last two years are Matthews and Gallagher, and they're both in the top-3 by ixG. However, the next nine scorers are all outside the top-10 by ixG per 60. Some are close, like Ovechkin at 15^th, but some are not, like Marchand at 71^st and Kucherov at 101^st. Again, shooter talent is very real, it's just hard to discern among the non-elites.

What does this have to do with Foegele? Well, HockeyViz estimates shooter talent and Foegele, despite driving the play very well and getting to the net for his shots, is a well-below-average shooter:

This will be an interesting summer for Foegele. He is an RFA and the team also has Nedeljkovic, Bean, and Svechnikov as RFAs and Hamilton as UFA. If they're lucky, that'll cost them $20M in cap hits, and the team still has to round out some players like Hakanpaa, Geekie, and Martinook, or find players to sign them.  We are in a flat cap the team has $29.4M in cap space. They shouldn't have a problem fitting in Foegele, but it may depend how much their RFAs get

However, as a 25-year-old RFA, the team will start buying UFA years on anything longer than two years, which can get expensive. Maybe he wants a long-term deal. Maybe he just wants to up his value as an RFA to get one big deal in two years' time. We don't know. All I'm saying is that it's not crazy to think the 'Canes run out of cap space after signing their marquee players and trade Foegele to grab some picks or depth to a team that can use a middle-six scorer now.

Whether he stays in Carolina or not, he's in the top-third by shot rate and even without elite conversion rates, he's posting middle-six scoring rates. He is good for over a hit per game, so he also plays well in multi-cat leagues. Just watch for him in case he's ever on the move. If he can get some more ice time, particularly on the PP, he becomes a valuable fantasy asset.

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Okay one more guy.

For all the hand-wringing about Timo Meier, his goals/60 rate at 5-on-5 over the last three years (1.06) is just behind both Kyle Connor and Patrice Bergeron at 1.07. By shots per 60 minutes, he's 6^th in the league. As far as hits go, his inside the top-25 percent of regular forwards in hockey in that span.

He had a bad 2021. There is no realm where 12 goals in 54 games is good. But he shot 7.7 percent, having shot 11.1 percent from 2017-20. And when it comes down to it, his 5-on-5 scoring this year was identical to Brock Boeser at 0.84 per 60 minutes, and higher than names like Mika Zibanejad, John Tavares, and William Karlsson.

It was a double whammy that got him. Not only did Meier fall to a career-low shooting percentage (outside his 34-game rookie season), but a three-year low in ice time at well at 16:04 a night. At 13:13 a night at 5-on-5, he was borderline third-line minutes.

With little PP production, the drop in shooting percentage, and the loss in ice time, it was a bad year. But there are better things to come for the 24-year-old Swiss. He has years of good production, don't be fooled by one bad two-thirds season.