Fantasy Hockey Poll: It’s All Downhill From Here

Rick Roos

2021-05-19

Right up front I'll say if this poll sounds familiar, it's because I've run it in the past at least once. But it's fun and useful, and truthfully lends itself to being done every season.

Many poolies don't pause to consider the reality of there always being a number of skaters who will never again duplicate their scoring pace from a just completed season – that is, players for whom it's truly all downhill from here. The tough part, however, is identifying those players, since quite often someone who was thought to be winding down might still have another great season or two in him, while others who seem to be capable of keeping up or even improving upon their scoring pace end up only doing worse in subsequent seasons. I thought – let's have your votes decide which players are about to enter a downhill slide versus those with gas still left in the tank.

I selected 20 players with only three restrictions, the first being no goalies, as unlike skaters there isn't one easy stat to compare year over year. I also didn't include anyone who's over the age of 35, since it's more likely than not they will fall victim to father time and see their scoring suffer accordingly. Lastly, I limited the choices to forwards who finished in the top 100 in scoring and defensemen from the top 50, as that way all would be on everyone's fantasy radar.

In casting votes, be sure to consider factors such as a skater's team, including if he's likely to be traded or sign elsewhere, plus his likely deployment wherever he plays. You can vote for as many or as few players as you want, with the only criteria being that each for whom you vote is someone you believe will never again post a scoring rate at or above his 2020-21 full season scoring rate, which I've put in parentheses next to everyone along with their current age. With that out of the way, here are the 20 voting choices, listed alphabetically.

Tyson Barrie (Age 29; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 72 points)

Even if Barrie signs elsewhere as a UFA this offseason, he'll almost assuredly continue producing like a top echelon rearguard. However, he had never previously scored at a rate this high; and if indeed he opts to leave Edmonton, he won't again be blessed with running a PP that has peak Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on it.

John Carlson (Age 31; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 69 points)

Last season it would've been a no brainer to vote for Carlson; but now it's more difficult, as he did shed points but he's still elite and has among the best deployments of any rearguard. Still, he's going to be 32; and with his ice time down for the second season in a row and having shed 45 seconds per game of PP time, his days of a scoring at a 70+ point pace could well be over.

Sean Couturier (Age 28; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 75 points)

With four straight campaigns sporting an 82-game scoring rate at or above 70 points, Couturier seems like he's humming along great. This season especially he started scorching, with 18 points in 16 games, meaning he thereafter he only scored at a 65-point pace. With youngsters looking at expanded roles, Couturier's unselfishness could see him cede offensive minutes, and points.

Evander Kane (Age 29; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 72 points)

It's not like Kane's spot in San Jose is in jeopardy; but his style of play puts him at risk of an early downswing. Also, the fact that his scoring rate this season was so far above his prior best makes it easier to think of it as a potential pinnacle to his career.

Patrick Kane (Age 32; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 97 points)

I don't want to influence you; but Kane won't get my vote because to me he doesn't seem like he has lost – or soon will lose – a step. Just as importantly, he'll remain the focal point of Chicago's offense for at least a few more seasons until the team's crop of young forwards are ready for the torch to be officially passed to them. Still though, his scoring rate is down for the second straight season; so between that and his age a case can be made he's on the decline.

Anze Kopitar (Age 33; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 73 points)

Despite his age, Kopitar seems to be humming along fine. But with LA having a bevy of young centers just waiting for their chance to shine, this might be the best we'll see from him again, even if the bottom doesn't fall out right away.

Gabriel Landeskog (Age 28; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 79 points)

As a UFA, Landeskog could opt to go to another team, and away from his dream spot alongside Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. If that happens, it'll be difficult to envision him hitting this number again. Even if he stays, like Evander Kane his past playing style could catch up to him or he could even end up being used on another line.

Kris Letang (Age 34; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 67 points)

His minutes are shrinking with each passing season, and perhaps even more troubling is the fact his SOG rate is down a jaw dropping 25% from just two seasons ago. Although as any poolie well knows Letang has missed many games over his career, on the plus side that means he has less mileage on his legs than most his age. Yet the reality probably is those injuries can't help but have taken a cumulative toll, which should be felt more with each passing season. Plus, the Pens lack a level of firepower as a team versus what they had just a few years ago, affecting all their productive players, Letang certainly included.

Brad Marchand (Age 33; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 107 points)

Even as Patrice Bergeron slowed, Marchand continued to fire on all cylinders with a career best scoring rate and his fourth straight season sporting a 100+ point pace. Though now aged 33, he can't keep this up indefinitely, even if it's tough to bet again his drive and competitiveness.

Ryan O'Reilly (Age 30; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 79 points)

Not many players set a career high at age 30, especially those, like ROR, who play an all-around game that normally causes them to sport an OZ% well below 50%. Yet this season the team let ROR strut his offensive stuff, resulting in a career high OZ%. Perhaps St. Louis will allow him to occupy a similar role, with less defensive emphasis, in coming seasons? If so, he might build off this success. Then again, with Vladimir Tarasenko back for a full season, and needing a high OZ%, it's quite possible O'Reilly reverts to his former, less offensively favorable deployment and, in turn, his more customary lower production.

T.J. Oshie (Age 34; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 67 points)

Playing like an ageless wonder, Oshie tied his best scoring rate as an NHLer, thanks in large part to his success on the PP. He's got a big contract and seemingly a locked in spot in the top six and on PP1. Let's be realistic though – he's not going to post nearly one PPPt per every three games (17 in 53 contests) again, even if he stays on the first unit and that quintet remains strong with the man advantage. So counting on him for a scoring pace this high again seems like a stretch.

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Max Pacioretty (Age 32; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 87 points)

Thanks to his chemistry with Mark Stone (spoiler alert, he's a voting choice too) and still sky-high SOG rate, Pacioretty had a career best scoring rate. However, a closer look reveals his SOG rate shrank considerably in Q3 and Q4 even as his scoring somehow didn't, suggesting perhaps he doesn't have a lot of gas left in the tank. All things considered, this is one of those seasons that screams career best.

Ondrej Palat (Age 30; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 69 points)

What happens when Nikita Kucherov misses an entire season? Someone benefits, and that someone was Palat, who'd been five seasons removed from a 60 point player but then suddenly duplicates his career best that was set six seasons ago and which was 12 points higher than any rate over his past five campaigns. Most likely it'll be a one-way trip back to reality, and a lower scoring rate, for Palat once Kucherov returns to the picture.

David Perron (Age 32; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 85 points)

Faring even better than he did in his renaissance season with Vegas, Perron's career best scoring rate also came with an all-time high SOG rate and yet again strong PPPts. It can't be ignored that he's thrived while Vladimir Tarasenko has largely been MIA. With Tarasenko likely to be back to true form next season and Perron not getting any younger (he turns 33 in a little over a week), it's difficult to envision that he'll be able to score at this rate again.

Jeff Petry (Age 33; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 63 points)

In what screams career season, Petry had a scoring rate in the 60s after never previously having one in even the 50s. All this occurred despite lower ice time overall, and not seeing tons of ice with the man advantage. I'm not here to say Petry's scoring will crater; however, to expect a repeat of what he did this season seems highly improbable.

Mark Scheifele (Age 28; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 92 points)

After sporting an 82-85 point scoring pace in each of the past four seasons, Scheifele vaulted into the 90s for 2020-21. But it doesn't add up, as he wasn't shooting more or getting more ice time. Also, if we disregard his 34 points in 25 games to start the season, he then went on to score 29 points in his final 32 contests, suggesting this is not his new normal.

Jordan Staal (Age 32; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 59 points)

A burning question had been what would happen if Staal – like Couturier – was allowed to truly be a scoring forward. This year we kind of got our answer, as the Canes deployed three scoring lines and put Staal on its PP1. The result was a scoring pace not seen from him in a decade. One has to wonder how long Staal can command a PP1 spot, and the scoring boost that goes with it, when Martin Necas and Teuvo Teravainen are chomping at the bit for expanded man advantage minutes.

Mark Stone (Age 28; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 91 points)

I'm not here to suggest that Stone isn't an immense talent. You don't have a season like his unless you're the real deal. Still, as I mentioned in my most recent Forum Buzz, his SOG rate is so low as to be in almost uncharted territory for someone who produced at his rate. Combine that with an atypically high PPPt rate and the aforementioned Pacioretty perhaps on the cusp of slowing, and what we just saw from Stone might indeed represent his peak.

Ryan Strome (Age 27; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 72 points)

Many figured Strome would see his scoring rate drop after his surprising output in 2019-20, but instead Strome fared even better. I'm not here to say that he'd do anywhere near as well if he wasn't tethered to Artemi Panarin; but for the moment he is, which could mean continued success. With young Rangers poised to step into a top-six role, it could be that Strome loses his coveted spot on the top power play, which would likely lead to a big drop in scoring.

Vincent Trocheck (Age 27; 2020-21 full season scoring rate = 75 points)

The success of Trocheck is a feel good story after he came back from injury and was essentially traded for pennies on the dollar by Florida. Still though, as I outlined in a Goldipucks piece, his metrics are not encouraging, and instead suggest his scoring pace is unsustainable with it being a stretch that he'll produce this well again given his role and deployment. In fact, he ended the season with a mere six points in 13 contests.

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Now that you've seen the 20 choices, it's time to cast your votes. And remember, you should vote any and all players you believe will never again have an 82 game scoring rate as high as their rate from this season. To cast your votes, click here.

Questions for Mailbag column Next week's column will be my monthly mailbag, which is already overflowing. But it's never too early to submit a question for the next edition. To do so, either private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or instead, send an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.

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