Ramblings: Goalie Rotations and Their Values; Canucks, Defencemen, Roster Optimization & More (May 19)

Alexander MacLean

2021-05-19

I have to hand it to the NHL for their arrangement of timeslots. They have finally figured out that they need to space out start times and not put all four games of the day into the usual 7pm EST slot.

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The goalie timeshares are spilling over into the playoffs, and it may have a large impact on the goalie market this summer. The Florida Panthers had a very close to even split between goaltenders Chris Driedger and Sergei Bobrovsky this year, which might have been even closer to 50/50 had Driedger not missed some time with a few minor injuries. To see the rotation continue into the playoffs is not surprising, although it is uncommon. Driedger was also the first goalie ever to make his playoff debut on his birthday.

Injuries aside, the starting goalie in game one usually plays at least 90% of a team's games for the remainder of the playoffs. This year, we have at least two teams that look to be rotating, in Florida and the New York Islanders. Additionally, depending on how Jack Campbell and Carey Price fare (both results and health) it's possible we see a quick switch to their respective backups. Washington could very well do the same once Ilya Samsonov is able to rejoin the team, while Carolina likely won't wait long before letting Petr Mrazek seeing some action. Surprisingly Vegas is not one of the teams rotating, as Marc-Andre Fleury has gotten both starts thus far. He has been the better goalie thus far though, and the same thing happened last year before we got the backstabbing twitter feud and Fleury did end up seeing a fair share of playoff starts.

All of that to say, the goaltending carousel is likely going to be as busy as ever this offseason with lots of high and average quality goaltenders available, in addition to the wrench that the Seattle expansion draft throws into everyone's plans. As usual, that means goalie values will be unpredictable in fantasy, both with offseason value fluctuations, and for how they inevitably surprise us with their stats next season.

Circling back on the upcoming starters, it would surprise me if we didn't see Semyon Varlamov (assuming he's healthy) and Sergei Bobrovsky for their respective game threes).

This despite Varlamov starting slow last night.

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In one cap league I own John Gibson, Pavel Francouz, Darcy Kuemper, and Casey DeSmith, and can keep a max of two of them. I will obviously be shopping all of them to see where I can get the best price, but I think I will likely end up keeping Francouz because his stock is at rock bottom right now, and I can get more in return for a few of the others. Between Gibson, Francouz, and DeSmith, I think DeSmith only factors into this decision if he goes elsewhere as a platoon starter or better, but that seems unlikely unless he is selected by Seattle.

Gibson vs Kuemper is a fun comparison, as they differ in a lot of different ways. Gibson is signed long-term at a reasonable number, while Kuemper is cheaper next year, he will be a UFA in the summer of 2022 and could match Gibson's $6.4 million AAV on his new deal. The teams in front of them both have warts, and for a dynasty league, Gibson at 27 is much more appealing with Anaheim's youth movement coming than Kuemper at 31 with whatever mess the Coyotes are going to get themselves into next.

However, the latest numbers on the ice really favour Kuemper:

Both the extended stats from this season as well as the totals from the last three years show that Kuemper has been the better own over that time frame. Do we expect that to suddenly change next year? Probably not. So at what point does it make more sense to own Kuemper for now and not worrying about who is going to be the better asset three or more years down the line? Well for me that is just about always. I always lean towards the player that is going to be more valuable in the next two seasons combined. That doesn't mean I'll sell low on Gibson, but it means that moving Gibson for a similar or better return will put my team in a better position for the next few years.

In one other non-cap league, I own Lehner, Jack Campbell, and Carey Price. I can keep one goalie here, and it is likely going to come down to who Toronto brings in as a backup for Campbell next year. If it's someone who will take a backseat to Campbell, then his volume should be more valuable compared to Lehner's superior ratios. I'm not making that decision yet, but I fully expect Vegas to keep Fleury and Lehner through to the end of Fleury's contract, while Toronto brings in a cheaper goalie that can settle in and take 30 starts for the Leafs next year. If a 50-game goalie on a top team in the league is something you want on your fantasy team, see if you can jump on Campbell as soon as trading opens in your league.

Side note, wouldn't a James Reimer reunion on a one-year $2 million deal be fun?

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Down playoff-ace Sam Bennett, the Panthers also decided to roll with seven defencemen last night. Their cross-state opponents have also used that lineup alignment to great effect in the last year. When a team rosters seven defencemen, it can really mess with the value of the offensive guys, because they seem to be the ones that are docked the most ice time. They still see the main offensive opportunities and powerplay time, but seeing 14 minutes instead of 18-19 can make a big difference. The reduced minutes really takes a player out of their comfort zone and out of the flow of the game. It reduces the peripherals especially, but since the powerplay time usually stays constant, those specialists typically don't see too much of an offensive decline.

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On the flip side, I would love to see a team load up with five excellent defencemen and run 13 forwards and five defencemen with some degree of regularity. Forwards are much more adaptable when it comes to mixing and matching with lines and varied ice time numbers, in addition to more specialized roles working better for forwards as well. Vegas tried it early in the season when they were managing around some cap gymnastics, and with their defence core they could get away with it. It would take each of the five defencemen playing 24 minutes a night, and at least one of the defencemen playing both sides of the ice, but it's something that I think a few teams could benefit from, especially once they don't need to worry about protection lists for a while after this summer.

I know in some fantasy leagues it can be beneficial to run with one less defenceman than you have active roster spots for, in order to roster an extra forward or goalie. Depending on the scheduling and what scoring stats you count, it's a strategy I have used on many occasions.

Even more effective, but less used, is running with one goalie in a start-two league. In standard Yahoo H2H leagues the goalie categories are wins, shutouts, goals against average, and save percentage. The former two are counting stats, with the latter two being averages. If you have one good goalie, then you can win the average stats more often than not, and having at least one more skater than the rest of your opponents can be a huge advantage in those volume categories.

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Looks as though Jim Benning isn't going anywhere anytime soon. That should really worry owners of any of the Canucks' core, but especially Thatcher Demko. The team really took a step backwards this past year, and paid too much to acquire Nate Schmidt who hasn't been the same outside of Vegas. He's only on the books for another four years at $5.95 million. Tyler Myers, he still has three years left at $6 million. Aside from Jack Rathbone on the last year of his ELC, those are the only defencemen under contract for next year.

The Canucks will need to sign a few more contracts before the Seattle expansion draft, which will likely lead them to overpay Travis Hamonic, and maybe Alex Edler as well just to be sure. Instead, they should use this as an opportunity to acquire another another defenceman, as they won't even have to protect Myers to ensure he doesn't get selected. Look to Minnesota and see if Matt Dumba is available, or maybe someone a little cheaper like Caleb Jones or Riley Stillman.

It's this kind of optimization that the franchise needs to take advantage of, and something that you should always be looking to do in your fantasy leagues. Everyone knows they need to condense their keepers to fit the most talent, but sometimes getting the best deal requires looking into your opponents' rosters and seeing what they need. Deals are a lot easier to swing if you're coming into it offering something your opponent actually needs.

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Oliver Wahlstrom is known as someone who can put the puck in the net, as he has done it at every level thus far. However, he's also growing into becoming an awesome multi-category player. In only 12 minutes of ice time per game, he managed to put up over two shots and one hit per game. Playing on the second power play unit, he notched 10 PPPs in 44 games, and of late, he has even added some PIMs to his repertoire. Last night alone he had six, and if that's something that he takes with him into the regular season he's going to need to be on your roster next year in all sorts of leagues.

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Salary cap keeper rankings (both skaters and goalies) are updated for this time next week. Keep your eyes peeled. This also means that I'll likely be able to update my contract projections at some point in the next two weeks. If you have any questions, comments, or thoughts on the projections in the meantime, you can find me on Twitter @alexdmaclean.

Stay safe!  

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