Eastern Edge: Early stories to watch in the 2021 NHL playoffs
Brennan Des
2021-05-25
In this week's Eastern Edge, we'll look at some of the storylines developing early in the 2021 playoffs. In particular, we'll focus on the Islanders' goaltending situation, another solid showing from Tuukka Rask, and a lack of scoring in Montreal.
New York's Netminders
Ilya Sorokin has won all three of his starts in the playoffs, posting an outstanding 1.66 GAA and .951 save percentage in the process. He has managed those numbers against a Penguins team that averaged 3.45 goals per game during the regular season – second to only the Colorado Avalanche. Sorokin has outperformed fellow netminder Semyon Varlamov, who has lost both of his starts in the postseason, while registering a 3.61 GAA and .903 save percentage. Although Varlamov's numbers look bad, his stats are weighed down by a really poor performance in Game Three, where he allowed five goals on 27 shots. He was actually very good in Game Two, stopping 43 of the 45 shots he faced. It's worth noting that Varlamov missed Game One of the series with an injury, which may have hindered him during both of his starts. Despite the perceived gap between Varlamov and Sorokin in the playoffs, Varlamov actually had the stronger regular season, posting a 2.04 GAA and .929 save percentage to Sorokin's 2.17 and .918.
Heading into next year's fantasy drafts, I think recency bias may influence our perceptions of Sorokin and Varlamov. We often place too much weight on playoff performances that come with such a small sample size. Don't get me wrong, Sorokin has been great so far and his dominance in the KHL suggests he has a bright future in the NHL. However, I don't think he runs away with the starting role next season. Varlamov has been solid throughout his time in New York – which includes two strong regular seasons and a remarkable showing in last year's playoffs that saw him post a 2.14 GAA and .921 save percentage through 19 starts. Our fantasy projections for next year shouldn't be thrown off by three good games for Sorokin and one bad game for Varlamov. While a lot can change over the course of the playoffs, I think Sorokin's strong playoff performance results in him being taken early on during next year's fantasy drafts.
In contrast, Varlamov will probably drop further than he should, making him an underrated option for your fantasy roster next year.
Rask's Reliability
The 34-year-old netminder had a solid showing in the regular season, posting a 15-5-2 record alongside a 2.28 GAA and .913 save percentage. He stepped it up in the first round of the playoffs, winning four of his five starts against the Capitals while posting a 1.81 GAA and .941 save percentage. In my opinion, Tuukka Rask doesn't get enough credit for the consistent excellence he's displayed throughout his career. He took on a full-time NHL role during the 2009-2010 campaign and hasn't finished a season with a save percentage below .910 since then. Given the unpredictability of goaltending from season to season, Rask's consistency is incredibly valuable in fantasy leagues.
Montreal's Anemic Attack
Montreal's attack looked dangerous early in the regular season as they scored a league-leading 4.13 goals per game in January. However, the offense evaporated as they averaged just 2.60 goals per game over the final four months of the regular season, which ranks 24th in the league during that span. The Canadiens' scoring struggles have carried into the postseason where they've scored just four goals through three games against the Leafs.
A large part of Montreal's offensive struggles can be attributed to a powerless power play, which hasn't converted on any of the team's nine opportunities through three games. It's not even the fact they haven't scored a goal, it's how lifeless they look with the man advantage. The Canadiens makes zone entries seem like the most difficult thing in the world, and on the rare occasion they're able to set up in the offensive zone, the don't create very many quality chances. I think this is partially explained by the absence of Jonathan Drouin, who played an important role in power-play zone entries before he took a leave of absence due to personal reasons. Regardless, the team still has all the ingredients for a successful power play. They have the playmaking abilities of Nick Suzuki, who also draws attention as a shooting threat. They have the sniping abilities of Cole Caufield and Tyler Toffoli, a blueline quarterback in Jeff Petry, and strong net front options in one of Corey Perry or Brendan Gallagher. In my opinion, the coaching staff should stack one unit and give them the lion's share of PP time – a strategy employed by most successful power plays across the league. By taking power-play minutes away from someone like Shea Weber, you leave him fresher for his role on the penalty kill or at even strength. Montreal hasn't really had a dangerous power-play over the past few years, which has limited the offensive potential and fantasy value of their skaters. The team's up-and-coming young talent provides all the tools for a successful power play, but the coaching staff has to bring everything together. The Canadiens may not be able to figure things out on the fly during the playoffs, but this will definitely be an area of focus during the offseason. Hopefully some improvements result in a more dangerous power play that boosts the fantasy value of Montreal's skaters.
On the topic of Montreal's anemic attack, I don't think we should place too much stock in the offensive struggles of guys who have been dealing with injuries – primarily the team's top line of Tomas Tatar, Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher. This is an excellent trio when everyone is playing at full capacity, but each member was hindered by an injury heading into the playoffs and none of them seem to be at a 100-percent right now. It's been especially noticeable in Gallagher's case, as the Montreal's engine has been a non-factor through the team's first three playoff games, averaging just 13 and a half minutes of action a night.