Cap League Goalie Rankings – May 2021
Alexander MacLean
2021-05-26
Here are the top 62 goalies to own in your salary cap league – May 26th, 2021 edition.
We made it through the 2021 season! This ranking system is still younger than the skater version, so it's not quite as refined yet – a constant work in progress. That being said, a some heavy work on it over the last month and a few additional features, and it seems to be in very good shape now. The next step is to up the keeper value a bit for guys like Spencer Knight and Yaroslav Askarov. Though their production value may not be great in the next couple of years, their potential and their trade value is extremely high.
In the meantime, we have a new number one goalie in the rankings, but it is heavily based on a few assumptions. Jack Campbell should be the Maple Leafs' starter next season, and with David Rittich backing up, they can use the savings to load up on a few extra skaters with some cap flexibility that the team hasn't seen in years. If Frederik Andersen returns, or if a better backup/platoon option is brought in, then Campbell's value will fall back down to earth a little, though it will still be exceptional at a $1.65 million cap hit.
Carter Hart has fallen off from his reign at the top, and a lot of other risers are making pushes for recognition. The numbers will change through the offseason as the goalie carousel settles out, the Seattle draft is completed, and new contracts are signed. Workloads are assumed at the moment, and the future salaries for the UFAs/RFAs are estimated through my model, and goalies are currently rated based on their expected next contracts. Signing a bargain or an overpriced deal will greatly affect a goalie's rankings.
Standard pre-rankings note:
This isn't meant to be a be-all and end-all rating system for you to use without thinking and just trade your players for anyone above them on the list that you can find, but used with some foresight for managing salaries, I'm hoping that the list can help you mine value in trades, and at the draft table.
Cap hit is used for the player cost, so if your league uses salary or AAV, please account for that, as it can greatly change the impact of rookies. The rankings are set up so as to provide the most value in the current season, while providing some value in future years, based on modeling for predicted salary increases and production growth.
The stats used for the goaltenders attempt to balance both ratio stats as well as volume. For those of you with variations towards either end of the spectrum, leaning more towards volume or rate stats, you will want to account for that change in value. Same thing goes for setting variations such as: number of teams, salary space, or roster positions. This list is made to be a baseline guide for player evaluation, and to promote discussion and understanding of how to optimize rosters in a cap league setting.
The goalie list comes not only with a rankings system, but with value tiers. The tiers (also computed by a formula of mine) represent a more general view on a goalie's value taking into account a few overarching factors. Cheap backups can have higher ratings but show up lower down the tier rankings. The high ranking is due to their low cap hits coupled with an established floor with some possible upside. The lower tier is a result of them having uncertain volume, and the lower likelihood of hitting their upside in any given year. In general, aim to have the highest rated players if you are looking to be most cap efficient, but use the tiers if you just want to focus on having the best goalies and you are comfortable paying a little more for that security (my preference is usually to lean towards the more cap efficient options because of how variable goalies can be).
If you note a mistake, or have any further questions about the ranking system, please let me know. You can find me on Twitter here @alexdmaclean.
I'm not perfect, and the rankings won't be either. Comments help with optimizing the values.
We're sticking with the +/- 5.0 rating that Dobber uses on all of his rating schemes as the range for approximately equivalent value. The skater and goalie rankings are synched so that the value of a skater against a goalie can be compared, though the scale of the ratings has changed a little since the last update.
All salary info is courtesy of capfriendly. Without further ado, the rankings:
Rank | Name | Age | Cap Hit | Yrs | Rating | Tier | Prev Rnk |
1 | Jack Campbell | 29 | $1,650,000 | 1 | 257.48 | 1 | 24 |
2 | Calvin Petersen | 26 | $858,333 | 1 | 218.92 | 3 | 5 |
3 | Jake Oettinger | 22 | $925,000 | 1 | 188.51 | 3 | 10 |
4 | Vitek Vanecek | 25 | $716,667 | 1 | 175.99 | 4 | 4 |
5 | Tristan Jarry | 26 | $3,500,000 | 2 | 174.77 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Andrei Vasilevskiy | 26 | $9,500,000 | 7 | 174.44 | 1 | 12 |
7 | Connor Hellebuyck | 28 | $6,166,666 | 3 | 166.18 | 1 | 15 |
8 | Semyon Varlamov | 33 | $5,000,000 | 2 | 161.64 | 1 | 17 |
9 | Kevin Lankinen | 26 | $800,000 | 1 | 153.93 | 5 | 3 |
10 | Mackenzie Blackwood | 24 | $2,800,000 | 2 | 147.69 | 3 | 20 |
11 | Cam Talbot | 33 | $3,666,666 | 2 | 143.67 | 3 | 29 |
12 | Carter Hart | 22 | 0 | 142.99 | 4 | 2 | |
13 | Darcy Kuemper | 31 | $4,500,000 | 1 | 142.67 | 2 | 22 |
14 | Philipp Grubauer | 29 | 0 | 140.70 | 2 | 7 | |
15 | Jordan Binnington | 27 | $6,000,000 | 6 | 140.67 | 3 | 19 |
16 | Juuse Saros | 26 | 0 | 138.83 | 2 | 13 | |
17 | Jacob Markstrom | 31 | $6,000,000 | 5 | 138.67 | 3 | 27 |
18 | Linus Ullmark | 27 | 0 | 137.00 | 5 | 43 | |
19 | Joonas Korpisalo | 27 | $2,800,000 | 1 | 133.71 | 3 | 16 |
20 | Frederik Andersen | 31 | 0 | 130.64 | 5 | 28 | |
21 | Alex Nedeljkovic | 25 | 0 | 128.12 | 4 | 21 | |
22 | Igor Shesterkin | 25 | 0 | 127.61 | 3 | 1 | |
23 | Robin Lehner | 29 | $5,000,000 | 4 | 127.17 | 3 | 42 |
24 | Ilya Samsonov | 24 | 0 | 125.84 | 3 | 11 | |
25 | Marc-Andre Fleury | 36 | $7,000,000 | 1 | 124.59 | 3 | 44 |
26 | Elvis Merzlikins | 27 | $4,000,000 | 1 | 123.80 | 3 | 36 |
27 | Tuukka Rask | 34 | 0 | 123.18 | 4 | 33 | |
28 | Jeremy Swayman | 22 | $925,000 | 2 | 121.31 | 3 | NR |
29 | Casey DeSmith | 29 | $1,250,000 | 1 | 118.54 | 4 | 9 |
30 | Pavel Francouz | 30 | $2,000,000 | 1 | 118.50 | 3 | 34 |
31 | Ilya Sorokin | 25 | 0 | 118.07 | 4 | 23 | |
32 | John Gibson | 27 | $6,400,000 | 6 | 118.05 | 3 | 35 |
33 | Kaapo Kahkonen | 24 | $725,000 | 1 | 117.68 | 4 | 6 |
34 | Jonathan Bernier | 32 | 0 | 117.26 | 5 | 31 | |
35 | Thatcher Demko | 25 | $5,000,000 | 5 | 116.98 | 4 | 8 |
36 | Petr Mrazek | 29 | 0 | 110.00 | 4 | 38 | |
37 | Antti Raanta | 32 | 0 | 107.99 | 5 | 54 | |
38 | David Rittich | 28 | 0 | 107.91 | 6 | 52 | |
39 | Chris Driedger | 27 | 0 | 105.00 | 4 | 18 | |
40 | Jaroslav Halak | 36 | 0 | 100.32 | 5 | 26 | |
41 | Mike Smith | 39 | 0 | 100.24 | 4 | 58 | |
42 | Anton Khudobin | 35 | $3,333,333 | 2 | 100.21 | 5 | 37 |
43 | James Reimer | 33 | 0 | 90.89 | 5 | 32 | |
44 | Brian Elliott | 36 | 0 | 86.93 | 7 | 50 | |
45 | Collin Delia | 26 | $1,000,000 | 1 | 83.97 | 5 | NR |
46 | Jake Allen | 30 | $2,875,000 | 2 | 83.81 | 5 | 55 |
47 | Thomas Greiss | 35 | $3,600,000 | 1 | 83.77 | 6 | NR |
48 | Adin Hill | 25 | 0 | 83.72 | 6 | 59 | |
49 | Malcolm Subban | 27 | $850,000 | 1 | 82.53 | 6 | 39 |
50 | Mikko Koskinen | 32 | $4,500,000 | 1 | 80.54 | 5 | 47 |
51 | Devan Dubnyk | 35 | 0 | 80.14 | 6 | 45 | |
52 | Sergei Bobrovsky | 32 | $10,000,000 | 5 | 79.93 | 3 | 51 |
53 | Alexandar Georgiev | 25 | $2,425,000 | 1 | 78.22 | 5 | 48 |
54 | Ville Husso | 26 | $750,000 | 1 | 75.38 | 5 | 30 |
55 | Laurent Brossoit | 28 | 0 | 75.29 | 6 | NR | |
56 | Matt Murray | 26 | $6,250,000 | 3 | 73.32 | 4 | 49 |
57 | Spencer Knight | 20 | $925,000 | 2 | 73.28 | 4 | NR |
58 | Martin Jones | 31 | $5,750,000 | 3 | 68.46 | 5 | 57 |
59 | Pekka Rinne | 38 | 0 | 66.36 | 6 | 61 | |
60 | Carey Price | 33 | $10,500,000 | 5 | 66.16 | 3 | 53 |
61 | Braden Holtby | 31 | $4,300,000 | 1 | 65.95 | 5 | 41 |
62 | Jonathan Quick | 35 | $5,800,000 | 2 | 62.85 | 6 | NR |