Frozen Tool Forensics: Most Valuable Left Wings

Chris Kane

2021-05-28

Last week we started our "Most Valuable' series by taking a look at the performance of our centremen during the 2021 season. We compared draft data to their end of year stats to get an idea of how well they had lived up to their average draft ranking (ADP). To be a valuable player in this context then a player needs to outperform their ADP. This week we are going to move on to left wings. The previous piece on centres is available here.

As a quick reminder on process – the ADPs are based off draft rankings across several sites and averaged. In this case our top five drafted left wings are:

 ADP Rank
Artemi Panarin5
Alex Ovechkin9
Brad Marchand15
Jonathan Huberdeau18
Jake Guentzel24

The ADP rank column is actually a little different than their true ADP though. I am using rank as it is a little easier to compare across the board. So, for Artemi Panarin his average draft position was 6.7, but that is the fifth highest average draft position of all players, so his ADP Rank is 5. This ADP Rank is also among all players, so he was the fifth ranked player on average, but the first left wing.

Next, we compare that rank to the player's year-long performance. We are taking Yahoo's standard calculation for points (six for a goal, four for an assist, etc) and apply that to Frozen Tool's Big Board Report. In order to do this, we export the report, then add a little equation adding all of the values for each scoring category. That gives us a total-points produced for all players, which we can then rank. We will use both rank and actuals in the column – but we will get to actuals in a minute.

First up ranks – we aren't just looking at who ranked the highest in points, we are looking for the player who had the largest difference between his draft rank and his performance rank.

 ADP RankPTS RankΔ
Ondrej Palat22052168
Rickard Rakell271112159
Alex Killorn24298144
Nils Hoglander278140138
Roope Hintz21377136

To perform really well in this metric it obviously helps to have been drafted late. It is much easier to outperform an ADP of 220 than of 50. That being said,