Capped: Team-by-team most intriguing free agents – Part 5

Logan Doyle

2021-06-03

Here we are, Part V team by team coverage of this years unrestricted free agents.  In reverse alphabetical order we go from Colorado to Anaheim.

Once again, I've used Alex MacLean's free agent salary projection list as a reference point which you can find here. The rest of this ‘Capped’ series can be found right here.

Let's jump right in. 

Colorado Avalanche – Philipp Grubauer, Age 29, Goalie ($3.33M)

For the last two years there have been stories about Grubauer's durability, that he wasn't a strong enough goalie to backstop the Avalanche to a Stanley Cup, yet here we are with the Avalanche a favorite to win it all, and Grubauer a finalist for the Vezina.

One look at his statistics and it is easy to see why he is a Vezina finalist, in 40 starts he was 30-9-1, seven shutouts, 1.95 goals against average, and .922 save percentage. Wowzers.

The prediction for Grubauer's next contract is just under $6M. Jordan Binnington and Jacob Markstrom are two good comparable contracts to look at. With Grubaruer and Landeskog to sign as unrestricted free agents and Cale Makar as a restricted free agent it is both an exciting and daunting summer of negotiations for Joe Sakic.

Grubauer has made a strong case for Sakic to re-sign him. If it ain't broke, right?

Chicago Blackhawks – Vinnie Hinostroza, Age 27, Right Wing ($1M)

The only unrestricted free agent on the Blackhawks. The real intrigue here is that the Blackhawks traded for the pending free agent at the trade deadline. One has to suspect the 'Hawks will re-sign him. It is the only way that trade makes sense. 

He was good for Chicago after he was acquired with 12 points in 18 games. I've always had a soft spot for Hinostrosa. He looked promising two years ago after he was acquired by the Arizona Coyotes but he never received consistent top-six minutes. He was buried in a defensive role which capped his offensive opportunities. He's got more to give offensively but I am starting to wonder if anyone will ever let us see it.

In deep pools, if he re-signs in Chicago and they continue to use Hinostrosa as they did to end this year, he could be a sleeper.  It is one player I just can't rule out the possibility of putting up 40 points next year if he were to get regular second power play minutes.

He won't break the bank on his next contract so he could be a really nice deep sleeper if he gets an opportunity to showcase himself on a regular basis.

Carolina Panthers – Dougie Hamilton, Age 27, Defence ($5.75M)

It is safe to say Hamilton is in for a nice little raise. Projections for Hamilton sit at $8.885M. While not quite Drew Doughty territory, it does push the utmost limits of salary versus fantasy value for defencemen.  If you can supplement a big salary on your blueline with good value contracts like MacKenzie Weegar you can make owning an expensive defenceman like Hamilton a viable option.

I expect Hamilton to sign for a bit less than the projected salary but not a whole lot, somewhere in the $8.5M range. I do expect Hamilton to re-sign with Carolina. This is a player that bounced from Boston to Calgary to Carolina, yet his love for museums lives on. The last two years Hamilton finally delivered on expectations with 63- and 70-point paces the last two seasons.

He's a workhorse who looks like he has finally settled into a team. I do believe a comfortable environment, personally, not financially, will one of the biggest factors in Hamilton's free agency decision.

Calgary Flames – No one of value

This creates a good spot to go back a couple teams and cover another player you likely wanted to read about:

Colorado Avalanche – Gabriel Landeskog, Age 28, Left Wing ($5.57M)

Over the past three seasons Landeskog has averaged 75.5 points per 82 games played. Alex's projection for Landeskog has him signing for $6.5M which I believe is low. His next contract is going to start with a seven. If he re-signs with the Avalanche, which I think we all believe he will do then he will sign for less than if he decides to go to free agency.

Anything under $7.5M for Landeskog would surprise me. Trying to find comparable contracts to Landeskog is difficult. He brings so much to the table beyond points. The fact he has been captain of the Avalanche for several years now also has to be considered.

One comparable I did find was Ryan O'Reilly ($7.5M). There are a lot of similarities between their games, even though O'Reilly doesn't hit as much, they are both highly skilled and heart and soul leaders. Another good comparable to Landeskog is Max Pacioretty ($7M).

Between these two deals you can begin to get an idea as to what to expect Landeskog's next deal to look like. 

If he does decide to leave Colorado, then I expect his new deal to start with an eight. Players like him rarely become free agents. For all the intangibles he brings to the table there would be a bidding war for his services.

The Landeskog bargain days are coming to an end.

Buffalo Sabres – Linus Ullmark, Age 27, Goalie ($2.6M)

Ullmark's numbers, despite the team in front of him have improved in each of the last three years (sounds a bit like Robin Lehner). They aren't Vezina-calibre numbers by any stretch but they are strong enough that he will draw interest from several teams in free agency. It would not surprise me to see Seattle negotiate a deal with Ullmark and select him in their expansion draft.

There are question marks on Ullmark's ability to be a legitimate number-one goalie though. He has never started 40 games in an NHL season. He has started 55 and 44 games in separate seasons in the AHL but that was now four years ago.

Wherever he lands I would be targeting his goaltending partner to own the tandem. There would be too much risk in missing too many starts in owning Ullmark on his own.

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There aren't a lot of starting jobs for the taking this summer, but there are a couple, Edmonton, San Jose, and Seattle to name the most obvious three. Other teams like Philadelphia, Toronto and Pittsburgh have questions surrounding their starting goalies and questions on the need for a 1B goalie perhaps to shore things up.

Needless to say, Ullmark will have multiple options to weigh in free agency. There's a chance a change of scenery could turn Ullmark into this year's Cam Talbot.

Boston Bruins – Taylor Hall – Age 29, Left Wing ($8M)

Let's start with a quick note. The Bruins have 28M in cap space going into the off-season. They have lots of cap space to re-sign him if they so desire.

Life long Bruin David Krejci is also a free agent this summer. I would not be surprised to see the Bruins bring him back on a short term, much cheaper deal and re-sign Hall to keep those two together in the short term. Those two created a lot of chemistry quickly after the trade that brought Hall to Boston.

I wrote about Hall a little over a month ago here. It would seem the Bruins culture has won out. There is just no room for ego in that dressing room. There is a team culture there that few other teams can match in any season, let along every year, as the Bruins appear to do it.

I don't think Hall will sign for more than the $8M he received from Buffalo this year. I do believe we will see him take a multi-year deal somewhere. It will be interesting to see whether Boston will be willing to make Hall their highest paid player by a million dollars a season, or more, than Patrice Bergeron. Conversely, it will be just as interesting to see if Hall is willing to accept a deal for under $8M – which I think he will if he wants to stay.

He will get his $8M if he signs elsewhere. If he stays in Boston I am expecting Hall to sign for closer to $7.5M.

Knowing the teams has some money to spend this summer, he might be willing to take a bit less to allow them to go big fish hunting in free agency and bring in more pieces to make another Stanley Cup run.

Arizona Coyotes – Antti Raanta, Age 32, Goalie ($4.2M)

I am convinced we will see Raanta in a new uniform next year. With a team that annually loses millions with fans in the stands, they would be hard pressed to spend $3-4M on Raanta when they can re-sign Adin Hill in the neighborhood of $1M as Kuemper's back up.

It's also an easy argument to make that Hill is ready for a larger role on the team.

Raanta is the type of back up goalie I envision a team like Philadelphia will take a long look at signing. Providing 1B level insurance to Carter Hart should be a top priority for the Flyers.

Raanta would provide several teams with a very strong insurance policy as a back up goaltender. At 32, he still has the ability to play 40 games if needed and be a teams 1B.

With his salary expected to drop by at least $1.5M, he could be a good value depth goalie next year.

Anaheim Ducks – Ryan Getzlaf, Age 36, Center ($8.25M)

He really seemed timeless, that age would incrementally slow him down and he would fade rather than slam into the proverbial wall. Well, the wall found him this year.

I actually would not count Getzlaf out from having a bounce-back season. There is just something about him that says he's not done. His 70-point seasons are done, let's be clear on that. But a Jason Spezza-type 45- to 50-point season I would not rule out in the right situation.

He is destined for a depth center role next year where he can garner some softer match-ups and play less minutes while still get power play exposure.

A lot of owners gave up on Getzlaf this year. There was just no way to justify owning his 29-point pace at $8.25M. In fact, a lot of non-salary cap leagues could find Getzlaf on the waiver wire by mid-season.

At $2.5M or $3M a year taking a chance on Getzlaf seems much more palatable. He still delivers power play points and he still hits. There's still some value to be had. A little fairy dust sprinkled on his aging legs and he could provide you with good bottom of the line up depth. More-so if you are in a multi-cat pool.

I'll end on a small aside. This is one of my pet peeves of the salary cap era. There's a good chance Getzlaf signs with a new team as the Ducks bring in the next generation of players. It takes a truly special, franchise player, like Henrik & Daniel Sedin or Sidney Crosby, for example, to play their entire career for one team.

Seeing Getzlaf possibly wear another jersey in 2021-22 will just feel off. It will probably feel the same as it did seeing Zdeno Chara wearing a Capitals jersey (I know he played for two teams in his career but he was with the Bruins for so long I just expected him to retire a Bruin). I'm a nostalgic fan. I like those one team, legacy players and stories. Call me old school – I don't care, but I'm hoping Bob Murray feels the same way.

Thanks for reading.

(all stats are from frozentools.com and all salary cap info from capfriendly.com)

Give me a follow on twitter @doylelb4.

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