Ramblings: Ted Lindsay nominations; playoff recap; Draft Lottery – June 3

Michael Clifford

2021-06-03

I have always found the Ted Lindsay award somewhat interesting. Appealing to authority is something that we should avoid doing as much as possible, but it's still interesting to find out who the players thought were the three most valuable among them.

This year, we have two names that are very obvious and one that is not, and in most seasons, the one that is not wouldn't stand out as much:

I don't think anyone blinks at McDavid or Matthews, but was Sidney Crosby the third-most valuable player this year?

This might be a situation where a player's reputation carried the day, but I guess it depends how we measure value. By expected goal share differential, this was Crosby's second-worst season on a per-60 basis in the last five years. His mark in 2021 put him just inside the top-50, nestled between Clayton Keller and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. If we look at total WAR, as measured by Evolving Hockey, Crosby comes in tied for 50th. When we look at expected WAR, Crosby comes in tied for 45th. By just total points, he comes in 10th, behind Mark Scheifele.

So, when we look at WAR, or expected WAR, or expected goal share, all of which are measured using either actual results or expected results, Crosby was nowhere near the top of the league. When we then look at points, he's sitting 10th. So, by what measure are we saying Crosby was one of the three-most valuable players in the league?

That is why I say this is reputation-based. There is not a single measure where Crosby is top-5 in the league, so it has to be something other than what happened on the ice.

For my money, Crosby's spot should have gone to one of Brad Marchand or Aleksander Barkov. The latter especially, when we consider the team's preseason expectations, how they performed, and how great Barkov's season was. But that's just my opinion on this. Yours?

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What seemed like a slow, plodding Game 1 between Montreal and Winnipeg escalated very quickly in the third period.

A 3-1 Montreal lead with 11 minutes to go in the game was a 4-3 game for the Habs with one minute left. Jake Evans would salt away the win with an empty-net goal, but was obliterated by Mark Scheifele as Evans came around the net to wrap the puck in the open cage and Scheifele hit him on the backcheck. I won't link the play because we don't know the extent of the injury – he was taken off the ice on a stretcher but was seen moving around – but Scheifele got five and a game for charging. We just have to hope it's not as serious as it looked for Evans.

On the fantasy side of things, Jesperi Kotkaniemi had a nice across-the-board fantasy night: one goal, one block, four PIMs, two hits. He isn't getting much ice time but he is making good use of it.

Joel Edmundson had two assists, five shots, three blocks, and a pair of hits in a monster fantasy night for him. I can't imagine he's drafted in many multi-cat playoff leagues, but kudos to anyone who used him.

Corey Perry had an assist, giving him points in three straight games and five total points in the postseason. Not a bad little run for him to start.

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Last night was the draft lottery, which is a reminder that this still a somewhat normal season and that we have a full NHL Draft to go through eventually. I know that particular combination of words may seem weird but honestly, I sometimes forget the simplest of things these days. There is an Entry Draft in the offseason? I need to shower regularly? I find these concepts dubious, to be honest.

Buffalo ended up winning the lottery, with Seattle moving up to second and Anaheim sliding in third. That order probably shouldn’t be a big deal, though. The limited viewings means that scouts are even more unsure of some players than usual, and there is no real consensus number-1 pick this year. In other words, Buffalo is not landing a younger Auston Matthews to slide in behind Eichel. All that said, I do think there are some very good picks at the very top of the draft where if those players don’t become high-end superstars, they still end up being top-of-the-roster contributors for years to come.

There are a lot of resources around to help everyone get through the Draft, and these resources, more than any other year, are going to be important in 2021. We have had very few junior/NCAA games to review and there aren't any Connor McDavids or Auston Matthews in this draft. I mean, there may be but there is no runaway, number-1 generational star waiting to be picked.

I wanted to take this Ramblings to help share some resources and some thoughts on the Draft. As for the latter, not as many as in normal years. Even in most seasons, I keep my draft advice relatively muted because I am just not a prospect person. There is simply too much hockey to watch and data to process to actually know how good some third-line right wing in the second-tier junior Russian league is while simultaneously having a handle on Anthony Beauvillier's three-year outlook, for example. I leave the prospects to the prospect people and take advice from those I trust.

First, we need to start with our Dobber Prospects team. These are the people that put in the work year-round, and for years leading to the draft, to hone their draft list as closely as possible. There are a lot of resources at Dobber Prospects, completely free, for readers to use:

  • Recent Rankings – The team did a top-100 ranking of the 2021 Draft back in March. These rankings give a thorough background on the top-50 players by their consensus slotting as well as some honourable mentions as the end. On top of that, and perhaps more importantly, there is a three-hour YouTube video at the bottom of those rankings explaining the process and the players from the perspective of our Prospects team. Lots of different perspectives talking about the players we need to know for the next few seasons.
  • Fantasy Upside – We have a page that lists all the top prospects for the 2021 NHL Draft, what our expected fantasy upside is from them, as well as the likelihood of them reaching the NHL. Beyond that, the full Dobber Prospects profile of each of those players is just a click away for even more information. So if you want to check out the upside that the top-75 draft picks have and where your dynasty draft capital should be spent, that is a good place to start. It also splits them between positions, left/right, and goaltenders. In that sense, if there is a specific hole that needs to be filled in your dynasty draft, this is an easy way to sort the players you need to key in on by position.
  • Podcasts – If consuming your draft material via ear holes rather than eye holes is your thing, we have lots of Draft podcasts for listeners to go through. Everything from league-specific talk (WHL, Russian juniors, etc.) to discussions on the lack of scouting ability this year to breaking down individual players. There is something in the podcast section no matter what, specifically, the listener wants to absorb. Lots of work goes into these podcasts so I very much recommend them. They are great for those long drives to work.

Of course, there is a lot more at Dobber Prospects, so I recommend just perusing the site to see what is of particular interest to you. But that is a good start on an overview of the most important players we'll need to know, and the Dobber team has been working very hard in suboptimal conditions to bring you their best analysis.

For resources outside of Dobber Prospects, well, most of them require some sort of subscription service so just beware that the following links are likely to require some form of payment to read them. For those wanting to stick to free materials, stick with our Dobber Prospects team.

Former Dobber Prospects and Hockey editor Cam Robinson is now over at Elite Prospects and he, along with the rest of the EP prospect team, have posted their top-64 rankings, or their top-2 rounds completed. These rankings are put together much how our Prospects team puts theirs together, which is kind of a consensus ranking. There are some smart prospect people in there, Cam included, so if anyone has an EP Rinkside membership, be sure to head over and check out their rankings.

Corey Pronman is someone I've been following as a prospect writer basically since I jumped on Twitter 10 years ago. He has a long track record of being very widely praised for his thoroughness, so even in a season where scouts go limited viewings of most players, I have faith that he has done his research into the relevant draftees. He posted his rankings back at the end of March over at The Athletic, and he also has individual profiles on players like Owen Power. Though it's just one person's perspective on all these players, he's a perspective people should trust implicitly.

Those are just some of the resources available here and elsewhere. Whether free or paid, there should be no shortage of prospect material for the offseason. Enjoy!

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