Ramblings – Armia’s Upside, Perry’s Resurgence, Marchessault Magic and More (Jun 07)

Dobber

2021-06-07

I'm not hearing much complaining from Montreal fans about Carey Price's contract these days. This is big-money goaltending. And it certainly bodes well for his fantasy value heading into next season.

I think I'm done predicting any series involving Montreal this year. They've now won six in a row, and this is a team that I felt was the worst team to make the postseason.

All the line combos are really fitting their roles right now. To a tee.

Time%EV – FORWARDSGFGA+/-SFSASF%CFCACF%
11:5123.1GALLAGHER – DANAULT – LEHKONEN1019756.3191359.4
9:1317.9COREY PERRY – ERIC STAAL – JOEL ARMIA1013633.381436.4
8:2616.4BYRON – ANDERSON – KOTKANIEMI0001325.06746.2
7:3814.9TOFFOLI – SUZUKI – CAUFIELD0007463.681044.4

The Toffoli line is the first line, yet it saw the fewest minutes. But very effective in the dangerous shots they create. Caufield actually saw the lowest ice time among all forwards at 13:01.

In terms of ice time, the chart is almost upside down. The third line is the veteran line of Staal, Perry and Armia. And they had the most chances given up…yet scored the most goals. Speed, experience, smarts and clutch play – that's the mix here.

Armia has shown us this upside before. But then he always seems to get hurt right when he gets rolling. This season he was enjoying a four-point game but then was injured (concussion). At that time, he had five points in five games. Last year he had 21 points in his first 35 games, on the way to possibly 50. But then – hurt (lower body). As a big forward (6-3, 212 pounds), Armia was pretty much predetermined to not hit his upside until later in his career. Say 27 years old. He just turned 28 last week. What is his potential, really? The two times that it looked as if we were starting to see it, he got injured. But that's what you get with Armia. He's been injured in four of his five full NHL seasons. So you'd be smart to pencil him in for 65 games, but I think you'll see him exceed his career-high points-per-game average of 0.52. Say 0.60 at 65 games, which is 39 points. If he can stay healthy he'd take a run at 50. His career high is 30 points.

Armia also has 12 points in his 20 playoff games with Montreal. Clutch!

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Corey Perry signs with the Habs, understanding that he won't be a regular in the lineup. But he wanted to prove teams wrong and show that he's still an NHLer. He ends up playing nine games in the first quarter, 11 in the second. In the third quarter he plays 12 games and his ice time jumps from around 12.5 minutes to 14. In the fourth quarter he plays all 17 games (fourth quarter saw more games due to postponements) and his ice time was a shade under 15 minutes per. He has six points in 10 playoff games and is averaging 14 minutes per game.

Artturi Lehkonen had seven shots on goal for the Habs. Seven! And he was rewarded with the second highest ice time among Montreal forwards. He's picked up a point in each of the two games since getting back into the lineup. I, along with many of you, had hopes for this guy to get somewhere. But his fourth season came and went without his production rate budging. Now five years in, his team is starting to get sick of waiting, too. But at least now he's showing that he can contribute as a depth guy. Lehkonen turns 26 next month.

Josh Anderson has now gone nine games without a point. And Phillip Danault, despite being an elite shutdown guy in these playoffs, has just two points in the playoffs, and two in his last 12 games overall.

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Kyle Connor and Blake Wheeler were minus-4 for the Jets in that game.

Montreal has never lost a best-of-seven series when up 3-0 (they are 33-0 all time). The two teams go right back at it Monday night.

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For a minute there it looked as though not even the Golden Knights could stop the Avs as they bulldozed their way through everybody. But it's almost as if the cheesy Reilly Smith penalty in overtime of Game 2 that cost them the game, woke Vegas up. They have dominated in every way since then, smothering Colorado and holding down their shot volume while stepping up their own shot volume.

Jonathan Marchessault's hat trick gives him points in four straight games. The 30-year-old finished the season strong with 17 points in his last 17 games. Vegas still has him locked in for the next three seasons at a $5M AAV. I'm still waiting for him to return to that 80-point pace he was on back in 2017-18, but it's pretty clear that this season's 66-point full-season pace is about what you can expect. The good news is that he rarely gets hurt, so you can at least count on those numbers.

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Marchessault is the first Vegas player to record 20 playoff goals with the team.

Ryan Reaves returned from his two-game suspension. He didn't play much (9:38) but still managed an assist and seven Hits. Colorado's Nazem Kadri still has two games remaining in his suspension, so he's eligible to return if there is a Game 7.

The Avalanche simply had no answer after the Nathan MacKinnon line. Every line beyond that was simply overwhelmed. The Tyson Jost line (with Valeri Nichushkin and Joonas Donskoi) was out-chanced 14-4.

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J-G Pageau has 10 points in 10 playoff games. He has 21 points in 33 playoff games since joining the Islanders. Yeah that was a nice acquisition. He has 49 points in his last 87 games overall with that team. Clutch. His regular season numbers have been established. I consider him firm as an expected 45- to 50-point player even though his career high is 43. His pace the last two shortened seasons were for 43 and 51. But man, come playoff time, watch out.

Top 10 Hits Leaders in these playoffs – look at the 10th guy here:

NameTeamRoad HitsHome HitsHits
CAL CLUTTERBUCKNYI342054
MARCUS FOLIGNOMIN371552
MATT MARTINNYI292150
RYAN REAVESVGK133548
LEO KOMAROVNYI272047
JANI HAKANPAACAR222446
 RYAN PULOCKNYI251742
RADKO GUDASFLA132639
JORDAN GREENWAYMIN291039
 JEAN-GABRIEL PAGEAUNYI291039

Lots of Islanders on the list, so you know what their strategy is…

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If David Pastrnak gets an assist tonight he will be the fifth active player to get 40 playoff assists in 62 playoff games (or fewer), joining Sidney Crosby (50 GP), Evgeni Malkin (54), Erik Karlsson (55) and Jason Spezza (62).

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In the shop – the 2021-22 products are now available for pre-sale! The usual Packs – Keeper League and Ultimate Packs. You can also subscribe, choosing one of three different subscriptions. The first document out will be the Fantasy Prospects Report, which will be ready on July 10.

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See you next Monday.

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UPCOMING GAMES

Mar 19 - 19:03 DET vs CBJ
Mar 19 - 19:03 N.J vs PIT
Mar 19 - 19:03 PHI vs TOR
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYR vs WPG
Mar 19 - 19:03 BOS vs OTT
Mar 19 - 19:03 NYI vs CAR
Mar 19 - 20:03 NSH vs S.J
Mar 19 - 20:03 STL vs COL
Mar 19 - 21:03 EDM vs MTL
Mar 19 - 22:03 VGK vs T.B
Mar 19 - 22:03 L.A vs CHI
Mar 19 - 22:03 VAN vs BUF
Mar 19 - 22:03 ANA vs MIN

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DANIIL MIROMANOV CGY
CONNOR MCMICHAEL WSH
CONNOR BEDARD CHI
EVGENY KUZNETSOV CAR
YEGOR SHARANGOVICH CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
DUSTIN WOLF CGY
CHARLIE LINDGREN WSH
DANIIL TARASOV CBJ
JOEY DACCORD SEA
DEVIN COOLEY S.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency PIT Players
26.3 BRYAN RUST DREW O'CONNOR SIDNEY CROSBY
19.1 RICKARD RAKELL EVGENI MALKIN MICHAEL BUNTING
17.5 JEFF CARTER EMIL BEMSTROM NOEL ACCIARI

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