21 Fantasy Hockey Rambles

Dobber Sports

2021-06-06

Every Sunday, we’ll share 21 Fantasy Rambles from our writers at DobberHockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week’s 'Daily Ramblings'.

Writers/Editors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, Alexander MacLean, and Dobber

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1. As a fan, I can say that Vegas/Colorado has been an infinitely more exciting series to watch than Montreal/Winnipeg. Maybe it’s because the Avalanche and Golden Knights aren’t afraid to play end to end and take chances offensively. It could be the high-end skill on both these teams as well. The winner of the West series would definitely be an overwhelming favorite against the winner of the North series.

Philipp Grubauer entered Game 3 against the Golden Knights with six consecutive playoff wins and nine overall dating back to the regular season. He certainly can’t be faulted for the loss, as he faced 43 shots from the Golden Knights (while the Avalanche only took 20 on Marc-Andre Fleury). Grubauer could be this year’s Jacob Markstrom as the UFA-to-be goalie who is increasing his market value game by game during the postseason.

In spite of the loss, Mikko Rantanen scored another goal, giving him goals in four consecutive games. He has recorded at least one point during every game of the playoffs. In fact, he has a 17-game playoff point streak dating back to last season. Nathan MacKinnon seemed to be the overwhelming favorite for the Conn Smythe Trophy by our panel, but Rantanen could have a say in the matter. As could Grubauer.

In a winning cause, Max Pacioretty took eight shots and delivered five hits in addition to his goal. Another reason he’s such a highly-ranked multicategory league player. Patches has points in each of the four games he has played in during the playoffs.

Game 4 goes tonight in Vegas. (june5)

2. On paper, the trade for Pierre-Luc Dubois seems like a smart move for this very moment with both Mark Scheifele and Paul Stastny out for the Jets' Game 2 versus the Canadiens. As might be expected, Dubois logged just over 20 minutes in that game, as did Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler and Andrew Copp. With 20 points in 41 games as a Jet, Dubois was on pace for just under 40 points prorated over an entire season. You might have watched HNIC's Kevin Bieksa targeting Dubois during the first intermission for taking too many shifts off and not making enough of a physical impact. Dubois ended up with four hits and 50% (9-for-18) in the faceoff circle. (june5)

3. Montreal’s recent success starts in goal. Carey Price stonewalled the Jets, making 30 saves to earn his first shutout of the playoffs. During the five-game winning streak, Price has earned four quality starts while allowing just nine goals. With a minimum .935 SV% in each of the last three seasons’ playoffs, Price takes his game to a whole new level once the postseason begins. His 8.05 GSAA has him among the playoff leaders at the moment. (june5)

4. The Rangers have signed blue-chip prospect Nils Lundkvist to a three-year contract. The AAV works out to be $1.775 million, which is fairly high. That should signal that the Rangers value him highly, and so should you in keeper leagues. For more on Lundkvist, see his profile on DobberProspects. (june4)

5. Kirill Kaprizov, Jason Robertson and Alex Nedeljkovic have been voted as Calder Trophy finalists. The recent Calder debate has focused on Kaprizov and Robertson, so their inclusion should come as no surprise.

Robertson has also had an impressive season, but Kaprizov has been a game-changer for the Wild, vaulting them into the upper echelon of teams. Give me Kaprizov.

As for Nedeljkovic, I can say firsthand that he has had an amazing season, as he helped me win a fantasy title. However, I don’t think he wins the Calder for the same possible reason that Jordan Binnington didn’t win in 2019, which is not enough games. Ned played in 23 of the Hurricanes’ 56 games, so about 50 percent in spite of the presence of two other experienced goalies in James Reimer and Petr Mrazek (who was injured for part of the season). And to think the Hurricanes could have lost Nedeljkovic on waivers early in the season. Expect at least one of Mrazek or Reimer to leave via free agency, which should give Ned more job security next season. (june4)

6. In need of some kind of turnaround after an 0-2 start to the series, Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour elected to give Petr Mrazek his first start of the playoffs in Game 3. Mrazek turned in a solid performance, stopping 35 of 37 shots in the win, but Alex Nedeljkovic hadn’t been the problem, as he has not posted a single really bad start to go with four quality starts during the playoffs. Starting Mrazek yielded the result the Canes wanted in that third game, but he had a rough outing in the subsequent Game 4 loss, so don’t be surprised if 'Ned' is back in net for Game 5. (june4)

7. The four-game suspension won’t guarantee that Mark Scheifele will be out of the lineup for the rest of the series as some had called for, but it has the potential to if the series lasts only five games. Scheifele’s loss will have a major impact, as he was the team’s leading scorer in the regular season (63 PTS in 56 GP) and co-leader in the playoffs (5 PTS in 5 GP) at the time. (june4)

8. According to Adam Kimelman of NHL.com, Evgeni Malkin has undergone right knee surgery and is not expected to be ready for the start of training camp in September. Perhaps we will learn more details of a recovery timeline soon, but this surgery could decrease Malkin’s value in keeper leagues and single-season drafts. Malkin played just 33 of a possible 56 games during the regular season, so any 2021-22 projections should already assume that he won’t play a full season. Malkin will also turn 35 at the end of July, another reason to assume that wear and tear is an issue. He was, however, still able to maintain a near point-per-game pace in 2020-21 (28 PTS in 33 GP). (june5)

9. Buffalo ended up winning the lottery, with Seattle moving up to second and Anaheim sliding in third. That order probably shouldn't be a big deal, though. The limited viewings means that scouts are even more unsure of some players than usual, and there is no real consensus number-1 pick this year. In other words, Buffalo is not landing a younger Auston Matthews to slide in behind Jack Eichel. All that said, I do think there are some very good picks at the very top of the draft where if those players don't become high-end superstars, they still end up being top-of-the-roster contributors for years to come. (june3)

10. There are a lot of resources around to help everyone get through the Draft, and these resources, more than any other year, are going to be important in 2021. We have had very few junior/NCAA games to review and there aren’t any Connor McDavids or Auston Matthews' in this draft. I mean, there may be but there is no runaway, number-1 generational star waiting to be picked.

For example, our DobberProspects team. These are the people that put in the work year-round, and for years leading to the draft, to hone their draft list as closely as possible. There are a lot of resources at DobberProspects, completely free, for readers to use:

  • Recent Rankings – The team did a top-100 ranking of the 2021 Draft back in March. These rankings give a thorough background on the top-50 players by their consensus slotting as well as some honourable mentions as the end. On top of that, and perhaps more importantly, there is a three-hour YouTube video at the bottom of those rankings explaining the process and the players from the perspective of our Prospects team. Lots of different perspectives talking about the players we need to know for the next few seasons.
  • Fantasy Upside – We have a page that lists all the top prospects for the 2021 NHL Draft, what our expected fantasy upside is from them, as well as the likelihood of them reaching the NHL. Beyond that, the full Dobber Prospects profile of each of those players is just a click away for even more information. So if you want to check out the upside that the top-75 draft picks have and where your dynasty draft capital should be spent, that is a good place to start. It also splits them between positions, left/right, and goaltenders. In that sense, if there is a specific hole that needs to be filled in your dynasty draft, this is an easy way to sort the players you need to key in on by position.
  • Podcasts – If consuming your draft material via ear holes rather than eye holes is your thing, we have lots of Draft podcasts for listeners to go through. Everything from league-specific talk (WHL, Russian juniors, etc.) to discussions on the lack of scouting ability this year to breaking down individual players. There is something in the podcast section no matter what, specifically, the listener wants to absorb. Lots of work goes into these podcasts so I very much recommend them. They are great for those long drives to work. (june3)

11. I have always found the Ted Lindsay award somewhat interesting. Appealing to authority is something that we should avoid doing as much as possible, but it’s still interesting to find out who the players thought were the three most valuable among them.

This year, we have two names that are very obvious and one that is not, and in most seasons, the one that is not wouldn’t stand out as much. I don’t think anyone blinks at Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews, but was Sidney Crosby the third-most valuable player this year?

This might be a situation where a player’s reputation carries the day, but I guess it depends how we measure value. By expected goal share differential, this was Crosby’s second-worst season on a per-60 basis in the last five years. His mark in 2021 put him just inside the top-50, nestled between Clayton Keller and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. If we look at total WAR, as measured by Evolving Hockey, Crosby comes in tied for 50th. When we look at expected WAR, Crosby comes in tied for 45th. By just total points, he comes in 10th, behind Mark Scheifele.

So, when we look at WAR, or expected WAR, or expected goal share, all of which are measured using either actual results or expected results, Crosby was nowhere near the top of the league. When we then look at points, he’s sitting 10th. So, by what measure are we saying Crosby was one of the three-most valuable players in the league?

That is why I say this is reputation-based. There is not a single measure where Crosby is top-5 in the league, so it has to be something other than what happened on the ice. For my money, Crosby’s spot should have gone to one of Brad Marchand or Aleksander Barkov. The latter especially, when we consider the team’s preseason expectations, how they performed, and how great Barkov’s season was. But that’s just my opinion on this. Yours?

12. My updated top-200 contract projections can be seen within my edition of Ramblings this week, but there are a few contracts I feel the need to mention:

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Alex Ovechkin is going to be signed for as much money as he wants. Numbers do not tell the whole story here, and he brings that unquantifiable something to a franchise that is obviously in the closing stages of its championship window. If he wants to sign in Washington, something at or a little above the generous $9.2 million AAV given to Nicklas Backstrom would make sense for Ovie. However, with a son, a cup to his name, and an estimated set of career earnings over $120 million, he may also opt to return to Russia, leaving the NHL and the chase for the all-time goal scoring record behind. (june2)

13. Taylor Hall and Kirill Kaprizov both in the high $6 million range are really tough to get a handle on. I can’t tell if I agree with those numbers or if they should be higher?

It’s obvious that Hall’s injury last year and his stint in Buffalo this year are bringing his numbers down, but how much is he really going to be able to get on a long-term deal when he doesn’t seem to be able to carry a line the same way he did in New Jersey? He may end up taking a bit of a discount into the $6.5-7 million range to play where he really wants to play.

As for Kaprizov, the lack of history makes it tough to peg his numbers, though his initial year is similar to Artemi Panarin‘s rookie season, and he bet on himself, signing a two-year deal at a $6 million AAV. With the cap ceiling higher now, the percentage that Panarin signed at (8.22%) would equate to a $6.67 million contract today. Maybe Kaprizov goes the same route on a two-year deal, and then signs a mega-deal in a few years. (june2)

14. In my (perhaps slightly biased) opinion, Juuse Saros should have been nominated as a Vezina Trophy finalist. No offense to Philipp Grubauer, but Saros put up extremely similar stats with a lot less help this year. Connor Hellebuyck would have been a deserving nominee as well.

Many seem to think the award will go to Andrei Vasilevskiy, however I say the favourite has to be Marc-Andre Fleury. The two goalies have very similar numbers, but Fleury hasn’t yet won a Vezina and is such a well-liked player. If you don’t think that won’t factor in just enough to tip the scales in his favour, then you haven’t been watching NHL awards for long enough. (june2)

15. The people running Seattle’s hockey operations would know that Valeri Nichushkin is a tremendous value at $2.5M for next season and that because of low production rates, he won’t be expensive as a UFA. He is the type of guy who can insulate a line defensively, helping balance any holes they have on their scoring or checking trios. And, perhaps like a Jonathan Marchessault or a William Karlsson, he only needs consistent top-6 minutes to produce enough to be relevant in the fantasy game.

Before he turned into the defensive stalwart we currently see in the NHL, Nichushkin was drafted to be a goal scorer. And he was, for a bit: 14 goals in his rookie NHL season and 27 goals in 86 games over in the KHL. Is that goal scorer waiting to break out?

Nichushkin isn’t afraid to lay the body; he has 149 hits in his last 120 regular season games. In a full season, 20 goals and 125 hits are well within reach for him if he can get to 16-17 minutes a night, and he won’t cost much at the draft table if he’s taken in expansion. Just a name to keep in mind, depending on what happens this summer. (june1)

16. The Canucks have signed highly-touted prospect Vasily Podkolzin to a three-year contract. There are many who expect him to play next season. The 19-year-old is a future power forward, likely in that high-60s range, but possibly in the 70s if he clicks with great linemates. But keep in mind that he is a power forward. That means you won’t see 40 points next year. At best I figure you’ll get Alex Tuch production for four or five years (or even longer) before you really see what Podkolzin can do. (may31)

17. The improbable happened as the Montreal Canadiens beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round 4-3 thanks to a 3-1 Game 7 win.

Said Mike Clifford: One thing I want to say is that, fantasy-wise, I hope they don’t trade their big guns. Auston Matthews had a spectacular season and he was likely injured for about half of it. I want to see what he and Mitch Marner can do, especially if that power play ever comes together. I imagine there are some Leafs fans that wouldn’t be too happy to see at least one of those guys return but I’m a fantasy guy first and I want to see that happen very much. Especially if the power play can find itself for a full season. We are talking massive seasons.

On the other hand, I realize this isn’t likely something that’s to happen. This is several years in a row without playoff success and that isn’t acceptable with the talent this team has. Zach Hyman may not return and it seems likely someone like Marner or the typical sacrificial lamb William Nylander. The reality is that this team has a lot of depth it needs to figure out. They have six forwards that are UFA in a year where they don’t have a lot of cap space should they bring Hyman back. An interesting summer is ahead. (june1)

18. Said Dobber: I could join Leaf fans around the world and rant about Mitch Marner‘s playoff disappearing act. Too easy. I’d rather focus on Auston Matthews.

I believe that a top defensive center with two-way upside could shut an elite player down for a game or even two. I also believe that Philip Danault is an underrated, top defensive center. This season hadn’t been as strong as the prior two, but man, his role and underlying analytics pointed to him as being a Selke candidate in either of those years. So yeah, Danault fits the bill.

But is Matthews elite or not? If he’s elite, can he still produce if every opponent is named “Danault”? Is he better than Danault? If teams iced 12 forwards with the same Danault skill set all season long… would that mean that Matthews would have zero points in 82 games? Of course not. But at some point, the best of the best just bulldoze through these shutdown pests and make things happen. Most hockey fans consider Matthews one of three best forwards in the league right now. But if he can’t even get past Danault, is he really any better than, say, Mark Scheifele? (may31)

19. Tomas Tatar was the Habs’ fourth-leading scorer this season (30 PTS in 50 GP) and leading scorer the season before (61 PTS in 68 GP), but he also finished the regular season with just one point in his last seven games and no goals in his last 12 games. With Tatar a UFA after the season, he already doesn’t seem to be in Montreal’s future plans. Phillip Danault is also a UFA at the end of the season. (may30)

20. According to Elliotte Friedman, Seth Jones has told the Blue Jackets that he won’t be re-signing right now. Jones has one year left on his current contract, so this news has potential implications for next summer’s free agency period. Will Jones be the most coveted defenseman on the market? If the Jackets aren’t in the playoff hunt next season, will they shop Jones before the deadline? It might be time to start thinking about some potential destinations for Jones, although as Friedman said nothing is absolute. (may30)

21. Columbus simply can’t catch a break right now. On the heels of the news of Seth Jones not resigning, they have announced that Max Domi will miss 5-6 months after undergoing shoulder surgery. This timeline would put him out of action for the first month or two should the season start on time in October. Domi’s season numbers (24 PTS in 54 GP) show that you probably wouldn’t draft him high anyway, although it’s also possible that the shoulder issue hindered his production. There’s also the effect of John Tortorella leaving, as Domi was made a healthy scratch twice during the month of April. (june5)

Have a good week, folks be safe!!

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