Wild West: Colorado Avalanche – Built by Analytics?

By Grant Campbell on June 7th, 2021

There has been a lot of murmuring online about the old analytics/eye test argument once the Toronto Maple Leafs were eliminated. Some would like to point out that the Leafs losing is a failure of the analytics movement and there are those that point to the Colorado Avalanche or the Tampa Bay Lightning and state that they were both built by analytics. Even Evolving Hockey wrote a blog about it here the other day.

Now that Colorado and Vegas are tied 2-2 in their series and the Avalanche have lost momentum, the lustre might be coming off this shiny model to some.

Like most arguments, it is rarely black and white and there are no doubt some grey areas on both sides. I'm in the camp of using analytics to confirm your eye tests and vice versa using your eye tests confirm your analytics. I thought it would be an interesting exercise to look at the Colorado Avalanche and see exactly how they were built.

The Core Three

Nathan MacKinnon – drafted 1st overall in 2013 (consensus 1st) – Any team would have considered themselves blessed by whatever god they believed in to have won this draft lottery.

Cale Makar – drafted 4th overall in 2017 (consensus 3rd overall to 10th overall) – Give the Avalanche credit as they knew the type of player that they wanted and they saw Makar as a perfect fit. That isn't to say that 31 other teams wouldn't have done the same at pick four though.

Mikko Rantanen – drafted 10th overall in 2015 (consensus 10th overall) – Rantanen was playing in the Finnish Liiga with men in his pre-draft season, but Colorado gave him one more year in the Liiga post-draft season and when he wasn't ready for the NHL (9 games, no points, minus seven), they gave him almost a full season in the AHL at 19 years of age where he flourished. The easy comparison is what the Oilers did with Jesse Puljujarvi which is not that dissimilar, so who is to say what approach was more correct, just because Rantanen has emerged as the better of the two.

I can't give credit to the analytics branch for the three best players on the Avalanche. MacKinnon and Makar were obvious choices to both sides, while Rantanen went 10th overall and was the 10th consensus ranking on most lists in an extremely strong draft class from 2015 (McDavid, Eichel, Marner, Provorov, Werenski).

Drafted Players on Roster

Gabriel Landeskog – drafted 2nd overall in 2011 – His approach to the NHL was a little different than most Swedes as he spent two seasons in the OHL pre-draft and went right to the NHL at 18-years old and flourished with 22 goals and 52 points in his rookie season. That always makes things easier on coaching and management when players do that. Landeskog is the team captain, plays on the first line and is on the first unit of the powerplay.

Tyson Jost – drafted 10th overall in 2016 (consensus 12th overall) – Jost had 104 points in only 48 games with Penticton of the BCHL pre-draft and then went to the University of North Dakota post-draft and only played one season where he was quite productive for a rookie with 35 points in 33 games. It is debatable whether the Avalanche did the right thing in signing him after only one year there as Jost struggled a little with only 22 points in 65 games in his rookie season. After four seasons in the NHL, he has still not produced to a level any higher than 0.37 pts/game. He and the Avalanche appear to have transitioned his game to more of a checking role and he seems to be flourishing. Jost is seeing second-line minutes because of the suspension to Nazem Kadri but would otherwise be on the third line

Alex Newhook – drafted 16th overall in 2019 – Newhook has a very similar backstory to Tyson Jost in that both were drafted out of the BCHL after 100 point seasons and both were committed to a US college. Newhook stayed two years at Boston College before leaving and signing with Colorado this spring. The jury is still out whether he is ready for the NHL on a full-time basis, but playing in the playoffs is a pretty good sign.

Sampo Ranta – drafted 78th overall in 2018 – Ranta is a unique Finnish player that came over to the USHL for two of his pre-draft seasons, where he committed to the University of Minnesota and was drafted in the 3rd round by Colorado. Never a prolific scorer or point-getter, he did manage 19 goals in 31 games this year in Minnesota before leaving after three years and signing with the Avalanche. He has started two games in the playoffs.

Connor Timmins – drafted 32nd overall in 2017 – Timmins is a product from the OHL where he had 61 points in 67 games in his pre-draft season. Once drafted, he remained another year in the OHL, but was injured and missed over 30 games in 2017-18 and missed all of the 2018-19 season. He managed 40 games in the AHL in 2019-20 with three goals and 27 points so there is an offensive component to his game that might translate in the NHL. He dressed for 31 games this season with seven assists and has played in six games so far in the playoffs. His role is limited as he averages less than 10 minutes per game, but it is good to see him healthy and progressing.

Players acquired through trade

Brandon Saad – acquired October 10, 2020, with young defenseman Dennis Gilbert for Nikita Zadorov and Anton Lindholm. This type of trade gives merit to the analytical side of things, as the team moved Zadorov who was a bit of a black hole defensively and was never going to be a top-four defenseman in Colorado. The Avalanche got a dependable player back in return with Saad who can score 20 goals a year and be defensively responsible.

Andre Burakovsky – acquired June 28th, 2019 for Scott Kosmachuk and a 2nd and 3rd round draft pick in 2020. Burakovsky was an under-producing player in Washington who had very good underlying stats, which have paid off with more ice time and more responsibility in Colorado. Another win for the analytics.

J.T. Compher – acquired June 26th, 2015 with Mikhail Grigorenko, Nikita Zadorov and a 2nd round pick in 2015 for Ryan O'Reilly and Jamie McGinn. I don't think you can take credit for a player that was acquired in a trade with a player (Zadorov) that you have already got credit for by trading. Compher was acquired as a 20-year old good prospect that was drafted 35th overall in 2013.

Devon Toews – acquired October 12th, 2020 for a 2nd round pick in 2021 and 2022. A huge analytical upgrade on Zadorov at a fairly inexpensive price. A big win.

Ryan Graves – acquired February 26th, 2018 for Chris Bigras. Whatever reason Graves was acquired for it is in the win column for either side. I don't think there is any doubt that Graves has benefited greatly from playing with Cale Makar and/or Devon Toews, but he is still a very good addition to this roster and it will be interesting whether Colorado protects him for the Seattle expansion draft or not.

Samuel Girard – acquired November 5th, 2017 as part of the Matt Duchene return. Other than looking at Girard as a 19-year old with tremendous potential, I think the only analytics involved would have been targeting mobile, skilled defensemen. I don't think anyone would have predicted what Girard has become, other than maybe himself.

Patrick Nemeth – acquired April 19th, 2021 for a 4th round pick in 2022. Nemeth was in Colorado for two seasons from 2017-2019, so the Avalanche knew exactly what they were getting. He is a physical, shot-blocker who can provide depth and experience.

Philipp Grubauer – acquired June 22nd, 2018 with the salary dump of Brooks Orpik for a 2nd round pick in 2018. Grubauer has been excellent in Colorado and management used their salary cap to get him at a much cheaper price than otherwise. He proved this season that he is more than capable of being the 1A.

Nazem Kadri – acquired July 1st, 2019 with Calle Rosen and a 3rd round pick in 2020 for Tyson Barrie, Alexander Kerfoot and a 6th round pick in 2020. Even the eye test told us that Tyson Barrie was expendable once Cale Makar stepped onto the ice for the first time in a Colorado uniform. Kadri has his value when not suspended, but Kerfoot seems like he would fit right in with the current team with no problem.

Signings

Valeri Nichushkin – signed October 10th, 2020. You have to credit the Avalanche for signing a player coming off a season with no goals in 57 games and giving him $2.5 million AAV over two years. Colorado must have envisioned him as a solid third-line player who can carry the play because that is exactly what he has done in his two seasons.

Joonas Donskoi – signed July 1st, 2019 to a four-year $3.9 million AAV deal. Colorado targeted Donskoi who had some solid but unspectacular seasons in San Jose where averaged about 14 goals and 35 points a season. He has blossomed a little and had 17 goals in 51 games this season with a career-high 0.61 pts/game.

I won't go into depth on other players such as Matt Calvert, Erik Johnson or Pavel Francouz as their contributions have been limited due to injuries this season.

There are a few other areas, such as scouting, cap management, coaching, set plays, certain skill sets that are focused on and progression models that each team might have or use.

There is no doubt that the Avalanche are amongst the NHL leaders in using analytics to improve their product on the ice, but I don't think it is fair to say that the team was built by analytics. I would make the analogy that if the Avalanche were building a house, I would consider MacKinnon, Makar, Rantanen, Landeskog and Jost, the finished foundation, electrical and plumbing and the frame of the highest quality. The rest of the roster would be the furnishings, landscaping and paint.

As we can see with the manner that the roster in Colorado built, it will always be a combination of methods that lead to the whole. Any advantage that good analytics can give a team, should be used and the better teams do that. The key is what analytics to focus on.

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.