Ramblings: Vegas advances again; Bergeron, Krejci, and McAvoy; Chara – June 11

Michael Clifford

2021-06-11

Vegas and Colorado went back and forth in Game 6 like Forrest Griffin and Stephen Bonner in the UFC cage all those years ago, but unlike that fight, this game had a decisive winner as the Golden Knights took a 6-3 win, and 4-2 series victory.

Philipp Grubauer had a rough start to the game where he got faked out by Reilly Smith and completely lost track of the puck for what seemed like 3-4 seconds, and a seemingly harmless wrist shot from the blue line by Nick Holden ended getting past him.  That was in reply to a Devon Toews goal just 23 seconds into the contest. Max Pacioretty scored the empty-netter, giving him two points in this game and points in seven straight since returning at the end of the Minnesota series.

Alex Pietrangelo came up big fantasy-wise with a goal, an assist, two shots, a block, and a couple of PIMs. Shea Theodore had a pair of points as well, with two assists.

Montreal awaits Vegas in what I guess they're calling the Stanley Cup Semi-Finals™ rather than the Conference Finals, which makes sense. Colorado has Gabriel Landeskog, Grubauer, and Brandon Saad as UFAs with Cale Makar as an RFA. There is a little bit of work to be done, let's say.  

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The Boston Bruins were eliminated by the New York Islanders in six games in the second round of the playoffs earlier this week. While losing in the second round to a team that was in the Conference Finals last year and will be again this year might be a successful campaign for some teams, it's a failure for the Bruins. The fact is Taylor Hall and David Krejci are UFAs, as are Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak, while Brandon Carlo is an RFA.  That could be a lot of movement, and Patrice Bergeron will be 36 next year, the final year of his contract. This is a franchise that has now gone a decade without a Cup, which might not sound like a big deal, but this core has two Cup Final appearances and three other appearances beyond the first round in that decade gap. That is a lot of playoff success to not put another Coupe Stanley on the mantle.

We are here to go through what went wrong for Boston, where they could go next year, and what it all means for their fantasy outlooks.

To start with the obvious…

The blue line

It surprised me when the team said Zdeno Chara wouldn't be returning. We don't tout players over the age of 35 basically ever, but it's pretty clear Chara is a unicorn and we're dealing with a different type of player. Unsurprisingly, he was good defensively again this year. He is definitely not the 40-point defenceman he was 6-7 years ago, but still being good defensively can be important in pressure situations. Like the playoffs!

Anyone who watched the elimination game watched the Boston blue line, outside of Charlie McAvoy, largely vomit all over themselves. Critical turnovers were the name of the game, and they led to three out of four goals that were scored with the netminder in the cage. That was a common theme for Boston in the playoffs, really.

Despite 87 career NHL games between them, the Bruins went into the season with a blue line consisting of Zboril, Lauzon, and Clifton. Injuries were a part of it, but I'm not sure Kevan Miller was the difference between winning and losing here. The fact remains that about half of the Bruins blue line was completely unproven, and when you go into a season as a Cup contender, then you look at Vegas's, Colroado's, or Tampa Bay's blue line, they don't have anything resembling the blue-line construction that the Bruins employed this season. Maybe there's a very good reason why two of those three teams will be in the Conference Finals and the Bruins are not.

Should Boston bring back both Brandon Carlo and Mike Reilly – RFA and UFA, respectively – the team will have a solid top-4. But they need depth, and a lot of it, if the guys they have don't take a step forward. This team can't afford to leave half their blue line to chance again. Their window is closing.

Forward depth

It was weird that Boston's bottom-6 basically fell apart in the postseason, because their bottom-6 was a strength earlier in the year. Through the first six weeks of the season, the team had Anders Bjork, Nick Ritchie, Jake DeBrusk, Jack Studnicka, and Charlie Coyle all over 49 percent expected goal share, with the guys at the top of the list over 55 percent. That is the kind of performance from depth that can win a playoff series.

Unfortunately, the bottom-6 fell off as the season wore on, and in the postseason, Debrusk was under 49 percent, Coyle under 45 percent, and Curtis Lazar (acquired with Taylor Hall) under 44 percent. As I've often said, this was a really weird season for everyone and I won't necessarily blame someone for under-performing. With that said, finding out what happened with guys like Coyle and DeBrusk would go a long way into figuring how just how much adjustment the bottom-6 needs.

Anyone who reads my work knows just how important I think third and fourth lines are. To illustrate this point, here is Edmonton's depth over the years compared to median playoff teams. This is why Edmonton will never have playoff success until it's fixed:

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That goes for Boston, too. If they can't rely on their bottom-6 to not get sunk in the playoffs, their Cup window may already be closed.

Rask and Hall

The question is what to do with their two big UFAs. The Bruins have more than enough cap space to do whatever they want, but neither will be cheap, and Hall is probably looking for a long-term deal at this point. Do they want to commit a bunch of dollars to a winger when their second-line centre is now UFA with their top-line centre UFA in a year? It isn't a straight-forward question.

As for Rask, he's 34 years old and goalies his age won't get long-term contracts. Can the Bruins get Rask for something like three years at $6M a season? In the neighbourhood of what Semyon Varlamov got, but maybe a bit shorter because he's older than Varlamov.

On the other hand, the Bruins got a great performance this year out of rookie Jonathan Swayman. Maybe the Bruins run it back with him and Jaroslav Halak, letting Rask walk? That would give them, hopefully, a really good tandem while saving them $2M-$3M a season for the next few years. In a flat cap, every dollar matters.

The Bruins don't have a cap crunch and can choose what they want to do here. But if they let Hall walk, and don't re-sign Krejci, that is two-thirds of their second line gone. I feel like at least Krejci will be back, and it's TBD on Hall. I think Rask may have played his last game as a Bruin, but we'll see.

In the end, this is still a Cup contender in 2021-22. They have about $28M in cap space with all their core pieces signed for next year. They really have a blank slate here, more or less, to build an offseason Cup contender. The Penguins did it just a few years ago, and the Bruins can do it now.

With all the core pieces returning, I think we should all anticipate another great fantasy season from their studs. I do worry about injuries, but that is a conversation for some other time this summer. Marchand posted his fourth straight season of at least 1.2 points per game, Bergeron was right on the edge of 0.9 points per game for the fourth straight season, while Pastrnak was a point-per-game player for the third year in a row. Despite a small down-turn from Bergeron, and Pastrnak not living up to his usual goal-scoring abilities, this was a great year pretty much across the board. I suspect it'll be something similar next year.

The real question is whether Charlie McAvoy or Matt Grzelcyk is the PP1QB next year. The power play was much better with McAvoy than Gryzz throughout the regular season. McAvoy also took over the reigns in the playoffs, so it seems like he has an inside edge. If he can become a 50-point defenceman, with his peripherals, he's a slam-dunk top-10 defenceman in multi-cat leagues.

In net, it depends where they go, but I'd love to see Swayman be the 1A in a 1A/1B with Halak. Maybe the team doesn't feel the same.

How about you guys? How are you feeling on Boston's fantasy prospects for next season?

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Starting Goalies

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LANE HUTSON MTL
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK
JIRI KULICH BUF
ADAM FANTILLI CBJ
KAAPO KAKKO SEA

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SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
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21.4 LUCAS RAYMOND DYLAN LARKIN MARCO KASPER
19.2 VLADIMIR TARASENKO J.T. COMPHER JONATAN BERGGREN
17.8 PATRICK KANE ALEX DEBRINCAT ANDREW COPP

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