Ramblings: Bolts Face Habs for the Cup, Caufield’s Value, Vegas Falls Short (June 26)
Ian Gooding
2021-06-26
There was only one goal scored in Game 7 between the Islanders and Lightning, but those types of games turn out to be nailbiters instead of snoozefests when there's so much on the line. In the end, Andrei Vasilevskiy didn't make any mistakes, making 18 saves in the 1-0 shutout win for Tampa Bay. Vasilevskiy now has four shutouts in this season's playoffs and five shutouts in his last 19 playoff games. He’s also building his reputation as a clutch playoff goalie, as the Bolts have now clinched four consecutive series wins by way of a Vasilevskiy shutout.
The game's only goal was scored by Yanni Gourde, a shorthanded goal less than two minutes into the second period. The goal was Gourde's third in his last five games. He also led the Bolts with five shots in this game. He's been more noticeable lately, taking 12 shots over his last three games.
After missing the morning skate, Nikita Kucherov was able to suit up for this game. Kucherov didn't seem like a huge presence in this game, taking two shots. As a game-time decision, Kucherov was probably in a lot of pain from what was rumored to be a rib injury from the cross-check he took from Scott Mayfield in Game 6. His presence alone likely gave the Bolts a lift for Game 7. Consider him questionable for Game 1 of the Cup final on Monday, since I'd be willing to guess that he wouldn't have played if the Lightning's season wasn't on the line.
Erik Cernak also returned for Game 7 after missing the past two games with an upper-body injury. He logged just under 20 minutes.
Unfortunately, the Brayden Point goal streak ended at nine games. He falls just one goal shy of Reggie Leach's all-time record. Still, this is an impressive run for Point. He still leads all playoff goal scorers with 14 goals, six ahead of teammate Alex Killorn, Nathan MacKinnon, and Brad Marchand.
The Lightning heavily outshot the Islanders over the first two periods by a total of 27-11. The Islanders were able to get a few more chances in the third period, with the Bolts even hanging on for dear life for about the last 30 seconds. With just one goal on 31 shots, the Lightning were just one lucky Islander bounce away from having to play overtime for the second consecutive game after holding the lead. Semyon Varlamov kept the Islanders in this game, making 30 saves.
This is no doubt a tough pill for the Islanders to swallow, having been ousted by the Lightning in the semifinal for two consecutive seasons. However, it’s clear that Barry Trotz gets the most out of this team and should continue to do so as long as he is the head coach. Even though the Isles don’t have the star power that many other teams possess, they need to be in the discussion of challenging for a Metropolitan Division title.
So now it's the surprise Canadiens and the defending champion Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final. Who do you like? This might be a tough one to pick. I'm really interested how many experts believe that the underdog Habs can finish the job. Look for our writers to weigh in with their series predictions and Conn Smythe winners sometime before puck drop on Monday night. In the meantime, you can check out how we fared on our semifinal predictions.
Obviously there are no games today (Saturday). In fact, there are no more Saturday games scheduled this season. You'll have to wait until the fall to get your Saturday night hockey fix. When the final isn't on, it's time to get out and enjoy the summer. Just do it safely if you're in the middle of a heat wave like I am where I live.
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Based on how the Vegas/Montreal series has played out, we've learned that perhaps the North Division wasn't as weak as we thought. It wasn't chock full of Stanley Cup contenders, but it was also a competitive division filled with many middle-of-the-road teams – Stanley Cup finalist Montreal being one of them. On the other hand, the West Division didn't seem quite as balanced. It's possible that Vegas' and Colorado's (and perhaps even Minnesota's) records were inflated by having to face the three California teams, none of whom were expected to contend. Maybe the Golden Knights and Avalanche weren't as strong as we thought, although so many Stanley Cup playoff series do not play out the way we expected anyway.
Forecasting the standings next season might not be as easy as it seems. Remember that each team faced only six or seven other opponents instead of facing all 30 teams as they have in the past. The lack of variety in matchups could skew a team's record one way or the other in a strong or weak division. We'll never truly know if one division was much stronger or much weaker than the others, so a team's 2020-21 record might be misleading. As well, some teams simply don't match up well against others, which creates an even greater discrepancy if the teams played several games in a row.
Of course, a ton of offseason activity has yet to take place, so it's way too early to speculate what teams will really look like next season. That being said, we could see one or more bottom teams take an unexpected giant leap forward. At the same time, a team or two that had no trouble making the playoffs this season could be in danger next season.
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These playoffs have given all of us a sneak preview of Cole Caufield. As each series passes, Caufield has taken his game to another level, and his production shows that.
vs. TOR: 5 GP, 0 G, 1 A
vs. WPG: 4 GP, 0 G, 3 A
vs. VGK: 6 GP, 4 G, 1 A
You may recall that Caufield was a healthy scratch for the first two games of the Toronto series, a decision that reflects the hesitance of coaches playing rookies. That decision seems inexplicable now.
Plenty of different storylines can be discussed about Caufield, including how teams continue to devalue lack of size in drafts, how the Habs may have a future franchise player on their hands, and of course where Caufield should be drafted in fantasy leagues next season. The last storyline will be at the top of mind of fantasy owners and will of course generate a ton of debate, given that rookies are difficult to value and often don't meet their level of hype in their first season. Caufield might be different in that sense in that he is already succeeding before our very eyes. From what I see now, Caufield is very much in the discussion to be drafted in 2021-22 single-season leagues, not just keeper leagues.
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Don't put it past the Golden Knights to try to upgrade at center during the offseason (Jack Eichel, anyone?) During the team's first season, William Karlsson scored an out-of-nowhere 43 goals. Since then, his highest total in 24 goals. He's a fixture on the Jonathan Marchessault – Reilly Smith line, but not a true No. 1 center. Playing on the top line has provided a huge upgrade for Chandler Stephenson's fantasy value, but the fact he is on that top line demonstrates that weakness at what is considered a key position for a team that is focused on winning the Stanley Cup.
Marc-Andre Fleury's trade value won't be sky high for a number of reasons (36 years of age, $7 million cap hit, only one year remaining on contract), but I wonder how efficient it is for the Golden Knights to have $12 million of cap space tied up in goalies. It's a nice luxury to have if one goalie is injured or struggles, and Fleury's bounce-back season has been a nice story. Yet I wouldn't be surprised if the Golden Knights revisit trade talks for Fleury in the offseason.
Another player Vegas could consider trading is Alex Tuch. The Golden Knights have plenty of depth on the wing, which often makes Tuch the odd man out from the top 6. He won't return a number one center on his own, but he could be a key part of a package that could send one to Vegas. Lots of teams should be interested in a 25-year-old 6-4, 220 lb. scorer who can skate like the wind.
If Vegas can't orchestrate a trade for or signing of a true top-6 center, they will have to give a long look to the promote-from-within model. Maybe that's where Nicolas Roy and Cody Glass come in, and more long-term Peyton Krebs.
As for Mark Stone (no points and otherwise a non-factor in the six-game series), I had thought he was injured. Turns out that he was shadowed effectively by Phillip Danault, who probably showed why he deserved more votes for the Selke Trophy. As a Stone keeper owner, I will breathe a sigh of relief that he's not looking at potential surgery that could cut into the start of his 2020-21 season.
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The Bruins have re-signed Trent Frederic to a two-year contract with a cap hit of $1.05 million. Frederic scored just five points (including four goals) in 42 games in 2020-21, although he led the Bruins with 65 penalty minutes. If he can improve on his 11:15 in icetime, he might evolve into a bangers league option someday. Frederic's 61 hits wasn't as high as I thought it would be, although the 23-year-old forward could very well build on that total as well.
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For more fantasy hockey discussion, or to reach out to me, you can follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding