Ramblings – Looking at Potential Breakout Players for Next Year (Jun 28)
Dobber
2021-06-28
Coming July 10 – the 15th annual DobberHockey Fantasy Prospects Report. Over 400 players with the lowdown on their upside, their likelihood of making it, how long we have to wait for them to help our fantasy squads and so much more. Plus 100 draftee profiles with Mock Draft. It's 'the' bible for anyone in a dynasty league. You'll refer to it all season long. And if you buy it as part of the Keeper League Pack, it's just an extra five bucks on top of the Fantasy Guide.
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We are now at that point where there is no on-ice content to discuss, and for the most of the next 80-odd days I am left with whatever pops into my head. "Rambles", if you will.
This topic may be done to death over the next couple of months, but since this is the first time I'm personally delving into this – it's allowed. Breakout players. Generally to dig these out we should be honing our focus on those players approaching (or recently hitting) the 200-game mark for their careers. They also cannot have already broken out. For smaller players or big power guys, the threshold shifts to 400 games.
Who are the candidates in 2021-22 to become the next Alex DeBrincat, Martin Necas and Samuel Girard? I take a look at a few hovering around the 200-game mark (will save the 400 gamers for another time, as that one requires more analysis).
Conor Garland, Arizona – One could argue that Garland already had his breakout just this past year, as he finished with an 82-game pace of 65 points. But I think there's another gear yet. He's 36 games away from the 200-point threshold. Last year he had 22 points in his first 23 games, and he finished with seven in his last four.
Andrew Mangiapane, Calgary – His 82-game pace over his three NHL seasons run as follows: 24, 39 and 47. Now 22 games shy of 200, all he needs is another shot with Matt Tkachuk on his line. He had Tkachuk there a few times in the first half but didn't really get a look with him in the second half when Mangiapane really hit his stride.
Andrei Svechnikov, Carolina – He's already had a 74-point pace, although since he was slowing that year (2019-20) I suspect he would have finished with around 69 or 70. But this guy obviously has the next gear. And 205 games into his NHL career, what better time to hit it?
Warren Foegele, Carolina – Foegele has had a steady increase in ice time and although his production didn't jump this past season, he's champing at the bit for more responsibility. With his contract up, there are rumors that the team may move him. Perhaps they use him in a deal with Seattle, for a mix and match of favors and assets. On an expansion team, hell this could be your next William Karlsson. Foegele has played exactly 200 career NHL games.
Miro Heiskanen, Dallas – In three years in the NHL he's only been a 40-point player. But last year in the playoffs we saw the "real" Heiskanen. He had 26 points in 27 games when the games mattered most, and fantasy owners are waiting for that to emerge in the regular season. John Klingberg has been holding him back a little, but soon that won't matter. There's room for two 60-point defenseman. Heiskanen has played 205 career games.
Filip Hronek, Detroit – The lack of any progress from this highly-talented defenseman is simple – the rest of the team has sucked. But a healthy Tyler Bertuzzi, the arrival of Jakub Vrana, and the hopeful arrival of either Lucas Raymond or Jonatan Berggren (not to mention fellow rearguard Moritz Seider), significantly upgrades the team around him. His offense will improve along with the team. And no, Seider shouldn't hurt his production down the road.
Jesse Puljujarvi, Edmonton – Puljujarvi is going to be a great power forward. Fans and fantasy owners just need/needed to be patient. He's coming off his best NHL season (37-point pace) and each quarter was better than the one prior. He is showing signs of clicking with Connor McDavid and that chemistry will only get better. He has played 194 career NHL games, and recently turned just 23.
Jesper Bratt, New Jersey – I don't think Bratt has huge upside, but I still think he can get to 65. The time of acquire him is now. The only thing that can dethrone him is injuries, and that has been a problem for him since turning pro. Twice he has given us a 53-point full-season pace. Now 231 games into his career, I think this is the year he gives us 60 if he can stay healthy (big if).
Nico Hischier, New Jersey – This times itself really well because Bratt and Hischier often play together. If one breaks out, it certainly helps the other. Hischier had last year wiped out with injury, but last year was supposed to be his breakout. Now 230 games in, he's ready. His career-high pace is 56 points, and he can definitely hit 70.
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa – Tkachuk has been hovering around the 0.63 points-per-game mark for all three of his NHL campaigns. Now we enter the fourth. And he's played 198 NHL games. If you believe in this stuff, and you should, then this will be the year. It doesn't hurt that the team around him is growing along with him, getting better alongside him.
Robert Thomas, St. Louis – Thomas is starting to become a Band-Aid Boy and I'm not sure if I trust him to give us 75 games next year. But he's worth a gamble if he could be had in dynasty leagues for cheap. He's played 169 games, so his breakout may not hit until the second half, but he has the upside to post first-line numbers and if it happens it will happen without the next two years.
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Chris Chelios went 16 years between Stanley Cups. Mark Recchi went 15 years between Stanley Cups. Eric Staal could go 15 years between Cups if the Habs win it all this year. Corey Perry is looking at a 14-year gap. So that's an interesting storyline heading in. Those are the only two players to have such a gap, so Staal and Perry would join them.
Trivia: Of the teams that have not won the Cup in the last five years, only Detroit and Montreal have six Cup winners playing for their team. Name the six Montreal players who have won the Cup… and the six Detroit players who have won the Cup.
If Pat Maroon wins the Cup it will be his third-straight Cup. This hasn't happened since the Isles' dynasty in 1983.
Carey Price is the first goalie in NHL history to have 400 NHL wins before making his Stanley Cup Final debut. This guy deserves a Cup before he retires, doesn't he? Shea Weber, too…
Joel Armia did not travel with Montreal to Tampa. He is in COVID-19 protocol.
If Montreal wins the Stanley Cup, Cole Caufield will become the first player ever to win the Hobey Baker and the Stanley Cup in the same season. The only other person to appear in the Cup Final after winning the Hobey Baker was Neal Broten in 1981 with Minnesota.
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Beau Bennett has announced his retirement. He's only 29 and had a great AHL season with 40 points in 55 games (and plus-8). One of the bigger fantasy disappointments because he was a 20th overall pick and he made the NHL just a half-season after turning pro. And in that half-season he had 14 points in 26 games for the Penguins. Well, that's when his fantasy value peaked. It went downhill from there, fantasy-wise. He retired due to the buildup of injuries and has joined Pro Mentor to coach and train young players.
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See you next Monday.