It seems like a whole lot longer ago than mid-January that I made these Forecasts. Sure enough, the 2020-21 regular season has come and gone and now it's time not just to see how I fared in making these predictions (spoiler alert) but also to determine the various lessons that can be learned from the results. After all, even though as always this is meant to be a fun exercise and to spur on debate, each of these forecasts – although purposefully bold – was grounded in fantasy logic; so let's see if, regardless of the outcome of the forecast whether my logic was sound, and if it wasn't, what we can learn from my mistakes to apply when making future fantasy hockey decisions and forecasts.

As per usual, I'll apply baseball terminology to indicate the result of each Forecast. A "Hit" means the Forecast was correct, a "Foul Tip" means it wasn't correct yet was either close or I was onto something, a "Miss" simply means I was wrong but not way off base, and lastly the dreaded "Strike Out" applies for those where I pretty much embarrassed myself.

1) Kevin Fiala's points per game scoring rate will be lower than it was in 2019-20

RESULT – Hit (his scoring pace was 66 this season, versus 69 in 2020-21)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Ice time and linemates usually matter more than pure talent

This one was looking like a slam-dunk when Fiala sat at 11 points in his first 22 games. But just like last season he was turbocharged in the second half, this time to the tune of 29 points in his final 28 games, solidifying that Fiala is indeed supremely talented but also reinforcing my logic in making this pick, as no matter how good a player might be if he is being centered by Marcus Johansson and not playing even 17 minutes per game, high scoring is simply too tall an order.

Really those are the lessons learned, as the number of instances of forwards scoring 0.85 points per game (i.e., a 70-point pace) despite playing under 17:00 per game dating back to 2016-17 is eight of 226, or 3.5%. Ice time matters…a lot. Also, rare is the case when a winger in today's NHL can be a top scorer without also a talented center. Yes, it did happen this season in Vegas with Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty and in Chicago with Patrick Kane and Alex Debrincat; however, those were two very talented wingers playing together. Remember, even if a player seems like a can't miss success, reality in the form of deployment and linemates may stand in the way of stardom.

2) Thomas Chabot will score at a 67+ point full season pace

RESULT – Miss (he scored at a 52-point pace, up from 45 last season but well short of 67)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – It may seem like very high scoring defensemen grow on trees, but they don't, especially on non-powerhouse teams

Plain and simple I got carried away in figuring how much Chabot would rebound. Where things mainly went wrong was on the PP, as Chabot yet again lagged in that area, reinforcing that sometimes things which look like they have nowhere to go but up can and do just end up being more of the same.

I think I was also blinded by the recent trend of very high scoring defensemen, as out of 41 instances of defensemen averaging 0.8 points per game (i.e., 66 points) since 2010-11, all but eight occurred from 2015-16 onward. Just because d-man scoring is indeed on the rise, and Chabot seemingly has the talent and deployment to be elite, doesn't mean things with align to allow that to occur, especially when one is on a team like Ottawa. As many had predicted, the Senators saw their scoring increase (from 2.67 goals per game to 2.76), though they were still not going to be enough of an offense juggernaut to support a defenseman scoring at that rate.

3) Tony DeAngelo will not be one of the top 20 defensemen scorers

RESULT – Hit (DeAngelo was banished after just six games)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Surprise stars are more vulnerable to coming back to earth with a crashing thud

First things first, when I made this forecast DeAngelo seemed primed to build off last season's success. Although I'm not here to claim I saw his implosion coming, I still firmly believe if he'd played a full, normal season my prediction would've indeed come true; but we'll never know. What this does show however, is players whose fires unexpectedly burn brightest run the risk of those flames extinguishing just as quickly as they were ignited. I'm looking at you MacKenzie Weegar and Carter Verhaeghe…

4) One of Victor Olofsson and Dominik Kubalik will not score at a 45-point full season pace

RESULT – Foul Tip (Kubalik's scoring pace essentially held steady – from 55 to 56, but Olofsson's dropped from 64 to 47)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Older rookies are at higher risk of being one-hit wonders or disappointments

The main basis in making this prediction was both players being rookies at the ripe old age of 24. And Olofsson's regression, coupled with Kubalik treading water, serves to reinforce that the older a player is when he makes his NHL debut, not only is it less likely he'll pan out (of 39 instances of rookie forwards scoring 0.75 points per game as a rookie in 20+ games dating back to 2000-01, a total of 29 were age 21 or younger and a mere three were older than 23) but also that he'll not have a successful career.

Need proof? Using that same list, age 23+ rookies who've since played 5+ seasons were, on the plus side, Artemi Panarin, but on the not so positive side Brad Boyes, Michael Ryder, Marek Svatos, Colby Armstrong, and Yanni Gourde. One hit and five who had careers that for the most part – if not entirely – fell short of rookie expectations. Compare that to the players who accomplished the same feat within the time frame, except did so as a teen rookie, and you get Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, Nathan MacKinnon, Anze Kopitar, Patrick Kane, Ilya Kovalchuk, Patrik Laine, Jeff Skinner, Clayton Keller, Jonathan Toews. Talk about a better track record!

Does this mean Olofsson is toast and Kubalik won't pan out long term? Although no one knows for sure, the odds are stacked against them based on these comparative examples.

5) Matt Murray will win more games than Ilya Samsonov

RESULT – Miss (Murray had ten wins in 27 games versus Samsonov's 13 in 19)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – In valuing goalies, team matters; young goalies don't always flourish right away

I figured Murray was better than his recent numbers suggested and Samsonov hadn't fared too well since coming to North America plus had a back-up, in Vitek Vanacek, who might push for starts. What I failed to take into proper account was how subpar Ottawa would continue to be on top of how well Washington would perform. There were also the now all-too-routine games missed by Murray due to injury, although he still started almost 50% more games than Samsonov.

Let this reinforce that although there exist goalies who are so superb they can and do elevate what is otherwise a poor team, more often than not a goalie is largely as good as the team in front of him. Simply put, Matt Murray isn't superb, but also don't presume even top prospect goalies like Samsonov will traipse into the crease and be immediately great. Goalies can and do endure growing pains for the most part, so be sure to factor that into your ratings.

6) Quinn Hughes will yet again score at least twice as many points as younger brother Jack

RESULT – Strike Out (Quinn did outscore younger brother Jack, but only 41 points to 31)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Scoring twice as much as another player is a huge gap, especially when the player predicted to do poorly is a forward who's going to get all the favorable playing time he can handle and the player predicted to do well is a defenseman with a low SOG rate

Simply put, Jack did better than I thought he would and older brother Quinn was largely stuck in neutral. Even though metrics suggested Jack would not do well – and make no mistake, a 45-point full-season scoring pace is pretty lousy for a former #1 overall pick, even one who's still just 19 – I neglected to realize New Jersey had nothing to lose in letting Jack play as much as he could to help elevate his game. On the other hand, I should've pumped the breaks in terms of Quinn, especially since he's not a high volume shooter. After all, going back to the Chabot forecast and looking at those same 41 instances of defensemen who scored at a rate of 0.8 points per game (i.e., a 65 point pace), just two failed to average 2.1 SOG per game, and as a rookie and a second year player Quinn has failed to average even two per contest. This is another reminder that even bold predictions need to take into proper account what stands likely to happen and the limitations on a player's upside due to his style of game.

7) Pavel Buchnevich will be a point per game player

RESULT – Foul Tip (He did raise his scoring rate by 32%, ending up with a 73 point pace)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Trends from the end of the prior season are relevant; however, there is a ceiling on one's scoring output if he's not getting PP1 time

Yes, I realize that 73 points isn't 82; however, this was his biggest season-to-season gain and he did tally 40 points in his last 41 games. Where did I go right? I paid attention to a player's trends toward the end of the prior season, as in the case of Buchnevich it was far better than his overall 2019-20 numbers.

Where I went wrong was assuming he'd be on PP1, as his ample man advantage time in Q4 of 2019-20 came when Chris Kreider was on the shelf and also as a result of the Rangers drawing a higher number of penalties than usual. When it came time for 2020-21, Buchnevich was put onto PP1 but didn't excel, and was relegated to PP2, ending the season with one PPPt per every six games. A solid rate for sure, but not enough to put one in point per game territory, as over the past five seasons there've been 103 instances of point per game scoring by forwards who played in 40+ games. Of those 103, zero failed to average as low as one PPPt per every six games and in fact only two were below one in every five. So if it wasn't already apparent, you can't be a strong scorer in today's NHL without success on the PP.

8) Miro Heiskanen will score less in the 2020-21 regular season than he did in the 2020 playoffs

RESULT – Foul Tip (he had 27 points in 2020-21, versus 26 in the 2020 playoffs)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Don't be blinded by unsustainable output in the playoffs or preseason; even can't miss prospects often take time to excel

After scoring 26 points in the 2020 playoffs, representing the fourth best total by a rearguard in NHL history, expectations for Heiskanen – who was already highly touted – went through the roof. As a result, he was selected 12th on average in Yahoo drafts for 2020-21, ahead of the likes of Seth Jones, Jeff Perty, Tyson Barrie, Adam Fox, Thomas Chabot and Aaron Ekblad to name just a few. When the dust settled on 2020-21, Heiskanen's point total ranked him only 29th league-wide. How exactly did I see this coming?

His playoff metrics were off the charts unsustainable, from a 10.2% SH% to a 70.3% IPP and a secondary assists percentage of 60%. While everyone else saw his output and had visions of Heiskanen rivaling Cale Makar as the league's best scoring young rearguard, I was pumping the brakes.

Beyond that, there was the issue of John Klingberg still being in the fold and needing favorable offensive deployment to be of value. In other words, whereas Heiskanen has the tools to be superb offensively, he also has the all-around game that Kilingberg lacks. As a result, it was clear Heiskanen would not be deployed in a manner to rack up points. It reminds me of Ivan Provorov in Philly or Charlie McAvoy is Boston where they were tasked with playing key minutes, including tough minutes, such that although they're immense talents, their scoring suffered. Will Heiskanen have his day to shine? Quite possibly, as Klingberg is a UFA in 2022 and is likely to go elsewhere. Don't cancel Heiskanen breakout plans, just put them on hold a bit longer.

9) Jakub Vrana will outpoint Alex Ovechkin

RESULT – Miss (Ovi outpointed Vrana despite skating in five fewer games)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – If teams have a surplus of talent, young players often will have tough go of it; ice time is a key indication of where a player stands in a team's eyes; elite players are elite until they're not

If only Vrana had been traded earlier he might've had a chance, as he tallied 13 points in his last 13 games on a still offensively weak Detroit team. Then again, Ovi did miss time due to injury, so there was that factor.

How did we get to Vrana being traded? For one, Detroit dangled Anthony Mantha in return. On top of that though, Vrana wasn't buying into the Washington system even though he excelled when he got favorable minutes. A team as deep and as much in "win now" mode as Washington is, can readily push aside players who don't buy into the system.

Was there a way to tell this was coming? On the one hand Vrana had received more ice time, took more shots, and produced at a higher scoring rate each season, with an increasing IPP and a falling OZ% as well, culminating in a 0.75 points per game rate for 2019-20 despite not taking the ice for even 15:00 per game. The red flag should have been the ice time. Had the Caps truly bought into Vrana, it would've been higher given how he was excelling more and more with each passing season.

As for Ovi, yes he was aging; however, his deployment was still going to be as conductive to scoring as nearly any winger in the NHL. Plus, there was added motivation as a UFA to be and in pursuing the all-time goal scoring mark. Be sure not to count out elite players until it's abundantly clear they're no longer elite.

10) Sergei Bobrovsky will finish in the top five in goalie wins

RESULT – Miss (Bobrovsky finished tied for 12th)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Regardless of pedigree, when a goalie who's over 30 has "lost it," chances are he won't revert back to his former glory

Eleven goalies had more wins than Bob, yet just four of them had a higher winning percentage than his 63%. Let's not try to put lipstick on a pig – Bob barely managed above a 50% Quality Start rate and put up stats (.906 SV%, 2.91 GAA, a mere three games with under 2 goals allowed, and no shut outs) not befitting a two-time Vezina winner, let alone one getting paid a fortune to be a franchise goalie.

I still think my prediction made sense, as two-time Vezina winners tend not to be washed up this early. What I neglected to take into proper account is the other two-time winners I cited hadn't really bottomed out and then came back. Rather, they'd either stayed fairly elite or hadn't fallen as far as Bob had. Yes, Bob had previously come back from a poor season to be amazing, that was four seasons ago, which is a lot different than making such a comeback at age 32.

Although there are plenty of netminders who remain elite into their 30s, once their game falters, best not to expect a return to top form. And if the goalie also happens to have a fat wallet thanks to a huge UFA deal, that might actually make the situation worse, as there's no financial motivation for the goalie to turn around his game.

11) At least 30 players will average at least a point per game

RESULT – Strike Out (Only 22 players did so)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Even though the grind of an 82-game season might have meant fewer cumulative "wear and tear" injuries, COVID was a bigger disruption than expected; a shortened season meant less time to make up for slow starts, of which there were more than usual due to factors such as 22% of the NHL's teams having not played in over nine months; teams playing each other so much meant they were able to make adjustments, giving defenses an advantage

Looking back, I might've had the most confidence in this specific forecast coming true. Lo and behold the number of point per game players was nearly identical (22 vs. 21) to how many there were during the last shortened season in 2012-13. Why did I think there'd be more? Some stacked divisions and lots of guys smack dab in their primes, plus still potent vets. When the dust settled the numbers just weren't there.

What went wrong? COVID was a huge disruption, as players or their linemates were in and out of the line-up without warning. Also, while some fast starts led to players performing better than expected, there were just as many who didn't have time in what would have been those extra 26 games to try and dig out of their early scoring ruts. Also, although there weren't likely going to be a lot of point per game players on the seven teams who didn't participate in the 2019-20 playoffs and thus were idle for nine months, the long layoff was more impactful to them (see, e.g., Jack Eichel) than most might've thought. Lastly, when teams play each other as often as they did this season due to the intra-divisional play only, they make adjustments where usually defenses get the upper hand. It all seems obvious in hindsight, but I guess I wasn't really thinking when I made the forecast.

12) Nathan MacKinnon will finish outside the top five in scoring and/or points per game

RESULT – Hit (he finished eighth)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – As with Heiskanen, we can't fall victim to attributing too much to production during the playoffs; most top tier centers have hit their realistic peak by the time they've played their fifth season or turned 25, whichever comes first

I remember getting a question in a mailbag about whether MacKinnon had done enough to now be the first overall pick in a points-only league, and I was floored. Then I realized that he was coming off a performance of 25 points in 15 playoff games and 93 points in just 69 regular season contests. I knew that short term magic during the playoffs is not a reliable barometer for a player doing that well next season. Plus, Mac already had two stretches in his career where he'd posted a similar scoring rate in the same or more of regular season games, so this was not uncharted territory.

There's also the reality that of centers who averaged 1.35 points per game or higher in a season dating back to 1990-91, we see that the vast majority (including the likes of Mario Lemieux, Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Steve Yzerman, Pierre Turgeon, Eric Lindros, Mats Sundin, and Peter Forsberg) who had tallied 111+ points by age 25 or their fifth season went on to never have a better season thereafter. In other words, chances are MacKinnon had already peaked. As such, it was not difficult for me to envision a scenario where at least five other players outscored him, and that indeed occurred. If you own a top center in a keeper or are deciding whether to draft one, don't think they have nowhere to go but up even if they're still young, as chances are they'll max out before you think they will.

13) Carter Hart will win the Vezina Trophy

RESULT – Strike Out (Hart's season was an unmitigated disaster)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – There's a reason why no one Hart's age had won the Vezina in 25 seasons and that the average age of winners historically has been 28.9 years old

All the signs of Hart having a great season were there, from a SV% rising with each quarter to a stellar run in the 2020 playoffs. There were also nine Really Bad Starts in 43 games played in 2019-20 and perhaps the most important factor, in hindsight, namely his young age. Whereas center is apparently a young man's position, goalie is for those more games under their belt. Youth may inspire confidence; but it also can lead to a lack of confidence during tough times, the kind of confidence that might not be lost if the goalie was older and had more experience.

Am I saying it's impossible for goalies to be great at a young age? No; however, predicting greatness from a young goalie before it occurs is usually a losing proposition not just in view of what happened to Hart, but also when considering the 41 instances of 40 win seasons from a netminder dating back to 1990-91, only one was buy someone age 22, one by someone age 23, and none by anyone age 24.

14) Auston Matthews will finish the season with a 0.75 goals per game average

RESULT – Hit (He scored 42 in 51 contests, for a 0.78 goals per game average)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – When a center shoots a lot, and accurately, and plays for a high-powered offense where he takes the ice a ton, including on the PP, he has a chance to make history

This might be my proudest forecast, since as I noted in the original column no center not named Mario Lemieux or Wayne Gretzky had accomplished this feat, and each of them only did so twice in any season where they played 40+ games. For Matthews to do this, and me to predict it – I feel like we should both take a bow.

Looking back though, the writing may have been on the wall more than I thought. After all, Matthews had scored at a rate of .67 per game last season and clearly had yet to peak in terms of his age, plus had room for more ice time at ES and on the PP, which he received. Also, him playing all his games against teams from Canada didn't hurt his cause, nor did him tying his career best shooting percentage and only hitting a post or a crossbar one out of every 6.7 games versus one every 5.9 games in 2019-20.

15) The Strome brothers will combine to score at a point per game level

RESULT – Strike Out (Ryan upped his scoring pace to 72, but Dylan's shrank to 35)

LESSON(S) LEARNED – Situational greatness has its limits and often doesn't even pan out, so it's risky to put your hopes on it

No one will say – not even now, with the benefit of hindsight – that Ryan and younger brother Dylan aren't very talented hockey players. I'll fully admit what prompted me to make this Forecast was Ryan once again poised to be tethered to Artemi Panarin, who's spent his entire career making players around him better, and Dylan penciled in as the center for Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat. Sure enough when the season started these dream deployments were in place. The issue was Dylan played so poorly as to be removed from the line for many games, and Ryan, although he played well, couldn't rise to the point per game level, let alone enough to account for Dylan's falling so far below the mark.

What this goes to serve is dream line placements are great, but they have their limits, which, for Ryan, seems to be the 70-75 point range, and they can be fleeting, where you don't just have to ask Dylan but also Kailer Yamamoto. If you do decide to place stock in players because of their projected lines, best to temper expectations and, if possible, have contingency plans, whether in the form of players who could take their place or others who might have less upside but also less downside.

************

Not my best year, that's for sure; but not terrible either. How did you fare, as if you recall there was an accompanying poll run in the Forums where you could vote for each predictions? The four "Hits" ranked second, tied for third, tied for third, and seventh according to your votes; so by and large you were able to sniff out the ones I got right. The one that had the most votes was Kubalik/Olofsson, which was a foul tip.

Rest assured – I'll lick my wounds and be back for yet another set of Fearless Forecasts for next season, since as you've seen there are lessons to be learned whether I'm right or wrong. Next week, however, it'll be back to Roos Lets Loose content as per usual, with an edition of Goldipucks and the Three Skaters focusing exclusively on players who are set to be RFAs. And looking ahead, my monthly mailbag is just a few weeks away; to get fantasy hockey question(s) to me for in depth, deep dive answers you can either (1) private message “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums or, instead, (2) send them via email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.