Ramblings: Montreal’s Cup Run; Norris in 2021; Theodore in Roto; Mantha’s Upside – July 9

Michael Clifford

2021-07-09

As the resident Habs fan, I feel like I should weigh in on the Habs's Cup run.

First, we need to give props to Carey Price. All the prods aside, this guy had a .931 save percentage through the first three rounds, second behind only Andrei Vasilevskiy. Without Price playing out of his mind for a month, this team is bounced in the first round. Let us not forget that.

It also brings me to their entire run. They needed a superhuman Carey Price and an injured John Tavares to get past Toronto. Winnipeg was decimated by injuries and suspensions. Vegas? Price posted a .933 save percentage. When we talk about how Montreal got to the Stanley Cup Finals, it starts and ends with the play of Carey Price.

That is what makes the Final a bit tougher to choke down. The Kotkaniemi line was getting hemmed in their zone just about any shift Josh Anderson wasn't able to rush the puck out, and Tomas Tatar remains stapled to the press box. If fans want to talk about chemistry or not breaking up what's working or whatever, fine. But going down 3-0 in the Cup Final and leaving Tatar in the press box? That is inexcusable, and combined with not playing Caufield earlier in the playoffs, just goes to show how far out of his depth Ducharme was here.

And that is the worst part. Ducharme has probably earned himself two years of goodwill with management. What will the lineup be next year? Tyler Toffoli on defence? Nick Suzuki backing up Carey Price? Can't wait to see what alignment Ducharme goes with.

There are a lot of exciting players on this Montreal team, particularly that entire Toffoli-Suzuki-Caufield line, but they need more offensive help. Also, defencemen who can move the puck might work.

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Don’t forget about this!

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I am going to continue my trend from the last couple weeks about discussing one major fantasy question from every team. Today, we go to Ottawa, Vegas, Washington, and Nashville.

What is Josh Norris's ceiling for 2021?

Perhaps one of my favourite performers from this past season was Josh Norris. Sometimes, it's just enjoyable watching a prospect work on his game, improve through the season, and be rewarded for it by the end. Do I like to see good things happen to people who work hard? You could say that.

Anyway, he really did improve, as he posted 12 points in 23 games to start the year and 23 points in 33 games to finish. He also added about a minute of TOI to be near the 17-minute mark over the final few months. He was skating on the top line with Brady Tkachuk and was getting top PP minutes as well. The line of Tkachuk-Norris-Batherson was excellent this year, particularly on a team that wasn't as excellent. So, if we are to assume that line starts the season next year, and Norris is playing 17-18 minutes a night, what is the absolute tops we can expect from him?

One thing I want to get out of the way is I'm not sure about his goal scoring in this setup. He will have to defer a lot of shots to Tkachuk, and Batherson himself was at two shots per game in his first full season. If Batherson/Tkachuk are taking 6-7 shots each per game, it doesn't leave a lot left over for Norris. It is one reason why I won't extrapolate his 2021 scoring to next year. I have doubts he'll step in to be a 25-goal scorer. Maybe 15-20 goals instead?

That isn't to say he can't rack up the points; he should get lots of assists from both Tkachuk and Batherson. He was also good for about 1.5 hits per game this year, which is a big boost for those in multi-cat leagues.

If all goes right this year for Norris, I think he can push for 70 points. But that is the upper limit and something I wouldn't expect outright. To get there, he needs to be a constant fixture at the top of the lineup all year, and this team is young enough where that is uncertain. Norris does bring production across the board though, so keep him in mind when ADPs roll around.

Can Shea Theodore be a top-5 multi-cat defenceman?

This is a precarious question because there are a lot of unanswered queries around Vegas. Does Alex Tuch stick around or is he trade bait? Does Alex Pietrangelo cut into Theodore's top PP minutes again? Does the team lose anyone important in expansion? Do they bring anyone else in? This is a team in their Cup window and unlikely to just stand pat.

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Besides all that, we need to ask if Theodore can be a top-end defenceman in multi-cat leagues.

I ask this because it relates to what we brought up with Quinn Hughes yesterday: there is probably a big chasm between Theodore's value in multi-cat leagues and in points-only leagues. The 25-year old has yet to have a season with 30 hits and he has fallen below one blocked shot per game over the last two years. Even with 60 points and 250 shots on goal, meager hit/block totals may not be enough for top-10 positioning.

For reference, depending on exact league settings, Theodore was a borderline top-10 defenceman in multi-cat leagues this year. He was exactly that in standard Yahoo! leagues. I think he needs more hits+blocks to get to the top-5, but what do you think?

Will Anthony Mantha be a monster in Washington?

Things could be weird in Washington next year. They traded Jakub Vrana for Mantha, which means Vrana's shot creation is out of the lineup. T.J. Oshie is also likely to be gone in the expansion draft, so there really isn't a whole lot left in the top-6 for wingers. Mantha is there, Ovechkin is a free agent, and Tom Wilson is good to be suspended for 20 percent of any given campaign.

Mantha is a wonderful player and can probably survive fantasy-wise without elite line mates. Something like Nicklas Backstrom and Daniel Sprong can probably get him to 25 goals and 55 points with huge shot totals. But that doesn't really constitute a monster season.

Presumably, Alex Ovechkin will be returning so most of the band will be back together. One area where Washington can greatly help Mantha is power-play production. Even Oshie, who was never a focal point of their PP, averaged nearly 19 PPPs per 82 games over the last three years. Mantha was closer to 13 in his games. If he gets close to 60 points as he normally would, can the PP push him closer to 70, making him a true fantasy monster? I hope so.

We will have to wait and see what Washington does in the offseason, but I still have faith in Mantha being a big-time offensive performer. The only thing that can kill his value is if they do like they did with Vrana at times and moved him to the third line. I don't see that happening here, so I think we can draft him with more confidence than we drafted Vrana in the past.

Do we have any comfort in Juuse Saros as a full-time starter?

Funny how goalies work, right? In a lot of leagues I saw, both Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros were taken outside the top-20 goalies, somewhat close to each other. Rinne was the starter for a while, then Saros took over and carried Nashville to the playoffs; after taking over basically full-time status in mid-March, Saros posted a .941 save percentage across 23 starts. That is absurd, really.

We need to remember that Saros has yet to have a bad season in the NHL. He has been above average by overall save percentage in every single season, and his overall save percentage over the last three years is top-10 in the league and tied with Tuukka Rask. He was in the top half of the league by high-danger save percentage, top-5 by WAR per 60 minutes, and top-10 by goals saved above expected. The worst we can say about Saros is that he's probably a mid-pack starter. There is a good chance he's truly among the top-10 or so.

But how comfortable are we in that assessment, and Nashville's ability to be a good team in front of him?

We really do have to wait to see how this offseason shakes out because there could be significant movement in Nashville. I mean, there has been already with the Viktor Arvidsson trade. I also think this Nashville team is better than they've shown, though I don't have a lot of confidence in the coaching staff.

I am never sure of goalies. That is just my nature and the nature of the position. But I wonder about Saros's ADP and outlook among the fantasy community. I think he's a darn good goaltender but I'm not sure about the team he'll be playing behind. If he's going anywhere outside the top-12 goalies, I will be tempted. What does the Dobber community say? Where do you all sit on Saros? Let us know in the comments.

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