Top 10 Interesting 2021 RFAs
Tom Collins
2021-07-12
Now that the NHL postseason has concluded, fantasy general managers can turn their attention to a couple of key dates: The NHL draft and the start of free agency.
These are exciting times for fantasy GMs, as the pain of the past season has quickly turned to hope for almost everyone.
(I'm not a prospect guru, so for coverage of the NHL draft, I recommend DobberProspects.com and Dobber's annual prospect guide, available for purchase here).
Although following signings of NHL unrestricted free agents makes for a couple of entertaining days in July, I find restricted free agents to have more of an impact in fantasy cap leagues. It's a useful way to gauge how valuable a team might consider its young player, and a lower-priced bridge deal now might cost your squad more in the future.
Below are 10 of the more interesting restricted free agents. That doesn't mean they are the best ones available, but they are ones whose contracts are either harder to predict or who might be in line for bridge deals.
10. Cale Makar
Makar's situation reminds me a lot of P.K. Subban's scenario the first time he was a restricted free agent. Sure, the Avs could do a bridge deal for a lower price, but that would cost the team so much more money in the long run. It may be better to ink Makar to a long-term, big-money deal now to save money down the road. However, the Avs need to also re-sign Gabriel Landeskog and Philip Grubauer, not to mention another five or six players to ice a full lineup. Makar is arguably the best young defenseman in the league, and he should be arguing that he is a much better player than Thomas Chabot, who an eight-year deal that pays him $8 million a season that kicked in this past season.
The right winger is about to hit his prime and can score highlight-reel goals. From a fantasy perspective, he will shoot the puck, hit and produce on the power play, and should be a top-30 player selected in one-year drafts. He's a genuine threat to hit a point-per-game pace for the first time next season. The Canes will be in for a busy offseason as they also have to deal with new contracts for Dougie Hamilton, all three goalies and some other pieces.
This could be one of those contracts where the Sabres might overpay long-term to prove to Buffalo fans that the team wants to keep their stars around. With rumours that Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart both want out of Buffalo, the Sabres brass will want to keep their fans happy by making sure Dahlin is locked up long term. That said, it might also depend on what the Sabres do with the first overall pick. If they draft defenseman Owen Power, maybe the Sabres prefer to wait until after a bridge deal to see which of the two should be paid like a number one defenseman.
This contract will be an interesting case as the Sens paid big bucks over the past year that didn’t pay off. After years of going cheap, will they be more gun shy after signing Matt Murray, Thomas Chabot and Evgeni Dadonov for too much money? Odds are they won't, but we've seen crazier stuff from Eugene Melnyk. Tkachuk should be a top-10 pick in multicat leagues as he can hit, shoot, pick up PIM and should be a threat for a 30-goal, 30-assist season next year.
6. Neal Pionk
Last summer, I figured Pionk would receive a long-term, big-money contract. He was running the top power-play unit, was a top 15 point producer among defensemen and didn't seem to be any challengers to usurp his spot in Winnipeg. Then this past season, the Jets decided to test that usurp theory, banishing Pionk to the second unit and handing the reins over to Josh Morrisey. While the Jets still had a top-10 power play, Pionk's power-play production unquestionably cratered. He still finished with a 49-point pace, and 66 per cent of his points were primary. He can be a stud, but will the Jets pay him like one?
5. Sam Bennett
Bennett could be one of the best bargains in fantasy hockey next season. After underwhelming performances in Calgary for five-and-a-half seasons, Bennett found new life in Florida. He put up six goals and 15 points in 10 games after he was traded to the Panthers, and followed that up with five points in five postseason games. Maybe he gets a small bump from the $2.55 million he made this past season, but I'm also wondering if Florida signs him for $4 or $5 million since he can produce in a top-six role. What's the better option for the Panthers: Sign him to a longer-term deal now and hope it's a bargain for all those years, or sign him to a cheap one-year deal but have to potentially overpay next summer?
There have been rumblings that Bertuzzi is on the trade block, and if so, where he lands will play a more substantial role in how large his contract will be. If he stays in Detroit, which has plenty of cap space, then his salary could be higher. If he gets dealt to a team such as Toronto, which is already near the cap, then he may have to accept less money. Bertuzzi should be a sneaky pick for next season as he has shown improvement every season, but played only nine games this year due to a back injury.
At the start of the season, Nedeljkovic was on waivers. After a tremendous season where Ned was a Calder nominee, Elliotte Friedman reported last week that the Canes may decide not to qualify Nedeljkovic, which would make him an unrestricted free agent. It’s almost as if Carolina was doing everything they could to prove to their netminder that they don’t want him. This all seems a little crazy to me, but there’s a good chance Nedeljkovic will be signed quickly. After all, the Canes have no goalies to make available for the Seattle Kraken (both James Reimer and Petr Mrazek are unrestricted free agents).
One of the more common themes I'm noticing this year is that there is a lot of speculation of teams wanting to trade their RFAs. Whether that be because the team has an internal cap, or they believe they can get more for a player before he is potentially overpaid, I don't know. But Garland is one of at least four players on this list rumoured to be on the trading block or allowed to leave as UFA. Garland has shown improvement every season, and put up a 65-point pace this year. At his size, he's not going to put up great peripherals, but he’s worth a look in points-only leagues.
1. Patrik Laine
This has to be the contract that absolutely no one can predict. If he signed a one- or two-year deal after notching a 50-point pace or less in two of the last three seasons, that wouldn’t surprise me. If he signs a long-term contract, that would be par for the course, considering he's had at least a 30-goal pace in four of his first five seasons. If the Blue Jackets decided he wasn’t a fit for the club and dealt him somewhere else, there would be no astonishment. Absolutely nothing would be a shock and it makes it extremely difficult for cap leagues to try to plan around it.