Wild West: Off-Season Plans by Team – Part Two

Grant Campbell

2021-07-19

There was a lot of excitement with the pre-expansion roster freeze on Saturday with nine trades conducted in the 48 hours before. I wouldn't have predicted Ryan Ellis being traded or Cody Glass, but we should always expect the unexpected in the NHL. We will look at the remaining teams in the West which will be Dallas, Los Angeles, San Jose, Vancouver, Vegas and Winnipeg. All salary cap projections are by Alex Maclean.

Dallas Stars (missed the playoffs after losing in the Finals in 2019-2020)

The Stars were busy on Saturday by trading Jason Dickinson to the Vancouver Canucks for a 3rd round pick in 2021. It is better to get a draft pick in return than nothing from Seattle and they did well to get the 73rd overall pick. Miro Heiskanen re-signed for eight years at $8.45 million AAV which might have wider implications with the future contracts of Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes. With most teams leaning towards bridge contracts, the Heiskanen deal caught a few people by surprise at the length. Heiskanen will be 29 years old at the end of the deal, so I doubt there will be much regret for Dallas towards the end of it unless his play falls off a cliff.

With the Dickinson trade and the Heiskanen contract, the Stars now have just over $5.8 million of salary-cap space for next season. Ben Bishop has waived his NMC and has $4.92 million in cap space which if moved would give Dallas just over $10.7 million of space.

Unrestricted free agents are Andrew Cogliano ($0.83 million), Justin Dowling, Jamie Oleksiak ($3.24 million), Sami Vatanen ($2.16 million) and Mark Pysyk. Restricted free agents are Joel Kiviranta ($1.2 million) and Nicholas Caamano ($0.75 million). The team will need to add one or two forwards with the loss of Dickinson and perhaps Tanner Kero in the expansion draft. From within, the team could possibly give Riley Damiani a regular role next season..

Their lack of depth on defence might see them bring back Oleksiak, but it would need to be at a reduced salary than has been estimated. It will be interesting to see if Thomas Harley is ready for the NHL as he isn't eligible to be sent to the AHL this year.

Dallas will be near the cap if they still have the salary of Bishop on the roster, otherwise, they might have $3-5 million to bring in additional players.

If Tyler Seguin and Alexander Radulov are healthy this season, the Stars will be a better team than last but the roster has taken a step back overall from 2018-19.

Joe Pavelski had a very good comeback season at the age of 36, but what is still left in the tank? The team had breakthrough years from Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson and continued improvement from Denis Gurianov. The team will need all three to maintain their output to improve.

On defence, John Klingberg, Heiskanen and Esa Lindell form a very good top three, but that is where the roster drops off, with Oleksiak as the fourth defender last season. If they don't bring him back, the club will have to look outside the organization to replace him as Joel Hanley, Andrej Sekera and Harley are probably not capable or ready for that role. Look for Heiskanen to steadily improve each year from here on but he can't fill two spots on the roster.

With Bishop waiving his NMC and being left exposed to Seattle, the team has chosen to protect Anton Khudobin and we should see him and Jake Oettinger again next season. Khudobin will have to be better or risk giving up playing time to Oettinger or Bishop. 

Overall the Stars are one or two injuries away from missing the playoffs again and lack the depth necessary to withstand those situations with key players. As long as Jamie Benn, Seguin, Radulov, Pavelski, Hintz, Heiskanen, Lindell and Klingberg all play 60 games, they should be fine to make the playoffs. The chances of that happening are not great.

Los Angeles Kings (have missed the playoffs for the past three seasons)

The Kings have added Victor Arvidsson from Nashville for a 2nd round pick in 2021 and a 3rd round pick in 2022. The Kings had an extra pick in those rounds in both years so they come out relatively the same.

The club moved on from Jeff Carter last year and will more than likely do the same with Dustin Brown this season as his contract expires this year.

The Kings have just under $14.7 million in salary-cap space heading into the expansion draft, with a dead cap this season of $2.636 million for Jeff Carter, $1.06 million for Dion Phaneuf and $0.9 million for Mike Richards. Restricted free agents are Andreas Athanasiou ($2.49 million), Trevor Moore ($1.52 million), Lias Andersson ($0.83 million), Matt Luff, Kale Clague ($1.03 million) and Austin Strand. If they re-sign all of their RFAs their cap space should be just around $10 million. Clague was left exposed by the Kings and might be the most intriguing choice for Seattle.

I have doubts that the Kings will qualify Athanasiou so it might be around $13 million. This will depend on where the Kings see Quinton Byfield, Rasmus Kupari and Arthur Kaliyev next season. Like a few teams already in the West, the Kings would be wise to use their cap space to get prospects or picks from other clubs to take on bigger salaries.

Los Angeles had decent seasons from a few of their veterans last year including Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty and Dustin Brown but saw very little progression from Alex Iafallo, Adrian Kempe, Blake Lizotte and Sean Walker. Some young players became regulars in Gabriel Vilardi, Trevor Moore, Jaret Anderson-Dolan, Carl Grundstrom, Mikey Anderson and Tobias Bjornfot. All of them experienced growing pains with Mikey Anderson perhaps being the best of the bunch overall.

Cal Petersen will be a UFA at the end of 2022 and appears to have taken over the number one role from Jonathan Quick who is under contract until the end of 2023 at $5.8 million AAV.

Rob Blake would be wise to continue the re-build for another season or two and continue to stockpile the prospects and picks, to give Byfield, Alex Turcotte and others time to make an impact starting in 2022-23. Any of the younger prospects might push that timeline with fine play and the Kings hope that is the case as they have a rich pipeline.

Los Angeles will not be a playoff team next season as they are and to hold their performance from this season, they will need Kopitar, Doughty and Petersen to play well again and be healthy.

San Jose Sharks (missed the playoffs for the second straight year, in 2018-2019 they had a 101-point season and lost in the third round)

The Sharks traded for Adin Hill from Arizona over the weekend and left Martin Jones unprotected for Seattle. For me, it comes down to Ryan Donato, Dylan Gambrell or Radim Simek for the Kraken to pick.

The list of declining or disappointing seasons from the Shark players was long this past season and included Timo Meier, Logan Couture, Kevin Labanc, Donato, Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson and Martin Jones. Four of those players are over the age of 31, so it should be quite concerning that the only player unprotected was Jones.

Evander Kane and Tomas Hertl had very good seasons while emerging campaigns came from Mario Ferraro, Rudolfs Balcers and Nikolai Knyzhov.

The club has just under $9.3 million in cap space available for next season with unrestricted free agents being Patrick Marleau, Kurtis Gabriel, Marcus Sorensen and Greg Pateryn. It is unlikely the Sharks sign any of these players, except for depth roles. Restricted free agents are Ryan Donato ($2.4 million), Noah Gregor ($0.79 million), Balcers ($2.0 million), Joachim Blichfeld, Alex True, Christian Jaros and Adin Hill ($1.2 million). If the club re-signs all of their RFAs and loses one of Donato, Gambrell or Simek, they will only have about $2-3 million in space to add externally.

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Jonathan Dahlen is expected to make the roster on his second go-around in North America and could be a top-six addition to the forwards in San Jose. He should be an upgrade on the second line with Kane and Hertl, but to what extent who knows? Other prospects that might be given a shot are Sasha Chmelevski, Ryan Merkley and Alexander True.

I think I've given up on the hope that Karlsson and Burns will get back to even close to what they were two or three seasons ago and it appears that Couture is in a bit of decline now as well. The odds of all three having comeback years is very slim and that is the only hope that the Sharks have to make the playoffs this season. They are still going backwards.

Vancouver Canucks (missed the playoffs for the third time in past four years; 109 points in 2016-17)

The Canucks filled one of their roster holes by adding Jason Dickinson from Dallas for a 3rd round pick this year. There are still rumors of Braden Holtby and/or Nate Schmidt being dealt as well as one or more of Jake Virtanen, Antoine Roussel, Loui Eriksson and Jay Beagle being bought out.

The team has just under $15.2 million of salary-cap space available for next season, which includes the final year of $3.03 million of cap recapture penalty for Roberto Luongo.

Unrestricted free agents are Brandon Sutter ($1.0 million), Tyler Graovac, Jimmy Vesey, Travis Boyd ($1.17 million), Alexander Edler ($2.56 million), Travis Hamonic ($1.2 million) and Jalen Chatfield. Restricted free agents are Elias Pettersson $5.9 million), Jason Dickinson ($2.05 million), Olli Juolevi ($1.0 million), Quinn Hughes $7.3 million), Jayce Hawryluk ($0.77 million) and Kole Lind. The Canucks are capped out if we just take into account salaries for Hughes, Pettersson and Dickinson. If the Canucks can get Sutter, Hamonic and Juolevi signed for the projected salaries above, they will need to clear $3-5 million in additional cap space, by trade or buyout. I think Hamonic will go elsewhere for more term and money but Sutter might come back into the fold if the market for his services is stale.

The team had disappointing seasons from Pettersson (injured), Nate Schmidt, Holtby, Tanner Pearson, Roussel, Jake Virtanen, Tyler Myers and Zack MacEwen. Conversely, Brock Boeser, Bo Horvat, Nils Hoglander and Thatcher Demko had very good years. J.T. Miller and Quinn Hughes fell off a little from their prior years and will need to bounce back a little. I would expect better seasons from Pettersson, Schmidt (if still in Vancouver), Pearson and Hughes, while the team should have Vasily Podkolzin, Jack Rathbone and perhaps Will Lockwood in the lineup regularly from within. The team will need Juolevi to play a more regular role as well and it is vital to the team and his career arc that he treads water at the very least.

It is tough to see the Canucks improving this season over last unless Pettersson, Hughes, Boeser, Horvat, Miller are healthy and produce along with good seasons from Pearson Dickinson, Demko, Hoglander and Tyler Myers. The team will also need Podkolzin, Rathbone and Juolevi to emerge and improve as the season progresses. The Pacific is not a great division so there is hope for the playoffs this year, but it is hanging by a thread.

Vegas Golden Knights (lost in Round two of the playoffs and have made the playoffs in all four of their years in the NHL)

The Golden Knights sent Cody Glass to Nashville for Nolan Patrick. This seems like a bit of a gamble for Vegas with the health of Patrick who looked like a shadow of his former self last season. I'm sure Vegas did their due diligence and has every indication he is 100% healthy.

Vegas had very good seasons from Mark Stone, Max Pacioretty, Shea Theodore, Chandler Stephenson. Alec Martinez and Marc-Andre Fleury. It will be difficult for any or all of these players to duplicate or exceed what they did last year. Good seasons were had by Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson, Alex Tuch and Alex Pietrangelo. Declining years were had by Reilly Smith and at 30 years old and a UFA at the end of this season, he might be dealt sooner than later.

The team has just over $5.2 million of cap space for next season, with unrestricted free agents being Tomas Nosek ($1.56 million), Mattias Janmark ($2.76 million) and Alec Martinez ($5.5 million). Restricted free agents are Dylan Coghlan and Nolan Patrick ($2.00 million). The team won't be able to bring back Martinez unless they move equivalent salary (see Reilly Smith above) and they will more than likely move on from Nosek and Janmark, leaving just Coghlan and Patrick to sign.

Emerging players from within are Peyton Krebs who could see a regular role next season and Nicholas Roy looks to be ready to move up the lineup, so if the team can get Martinez back, they should be nearly as good as this past year.

Winnipeg Jets (lost in the second round of playoffs to Montreal and have been in the playoffs four years in a row)

The Jets are going to have some holes to fill in next season, with the loss of some free agents and the expansion draft to Seattle. In all likelihood, they will lose Mason Appleton to trade or Seattle as well as dealing with unrestricted free agents.

The team has about $25.7 million in cap space if you include the $5.3 million of LTIR to Bryan Little next season. Their unrestricted free agents are Nate Thompson, Mathieu Perreault ($1.6 million), Trevor Lewis, Paul Stastny ($3.1 million), Jordie Benn ($1.0 million), Derek Forbort ($2.0 million), Tucker Poolman ($1.56 million) and Laurent Brossoit. Restricted free agents are Andrew Copp ($4.7 million), Logan Stanley ($1.3 million) and Neal Pionk ($5.4 million). I think the only UFAs they bring back are Forbort and Brossoit and if they do that and re-sign the RFAs, they should have about $10 to 12 million dollars of cap space remaining to upgrade. I think they would bring back both Perreault and Stastny but at a much-reduced salary at one or two years.

Do the Jets go after a Dougie Hamilton or a Tyson Barrie in free agency? Probably not, but they will certainly need to add two defenders to their roster to upgrade a position that has been a problem for them for a few years. More than likely they will target players like Travis Hamonic, Adam Larsson or David Savard.

Winnipeg had very good seasons with Mark Scheifele, Andrew Copp, Nik Ehlers and Neal Pionk. They had good years from Kyle Connor, Adam Lowry, Mason Appleton, Connor Hellebuyck, Paul Stastny and Derek Forbort. Players that had troubles were Blake Wheeler, Pierre-Luc Dubois and Josh Morrissey. The team will need Wheeler, Dubois and Morrissey to be significantly better and at 34-years of age, that won't be easy for Wheeler who is signed at $8.25 million AAV until the end of 2024.

From within the organization, the team will look for Kristian Vesailanen, David Gustafsson, Ville Heinola and Logan Stanley to become fixtures this season. I think Cole Perfetti is at least a year away, but he could surprise and make the Jets rather than be sent back to the OHL.

If Winnipeg can upgrade their overall defense they have a chance to improve the team that was on the ice this year. 

With the expansion draft, free agency and the entry draft all happening this month, it certainly makes for a much more interesting off-season compared to most. Enjoy!

Thank you very much for reading and if you have any comments or suggestions please message me or follow me on Twitter @gampbler15.

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