Ramblings – Draft Thoughts, Francis Thoughts, and Dobber’s Odds on Seattle’s Version of Karlsson/Marchessault (July 26)

Dobber

2021-07-26

A lot going on in the hockey world, and a lot going on with DobberHockey. I have a ton to say, so much so that normally I would have posted a separate article. But after posting the Fantasy Prospects Report recently, I had to dive straight into the Fantasy Guide. The Guide is out August 14, which is a very fast turnaround (fastest ever). Since I can't project anything until after July 28 (because free agency opens), all I can do in advance is study and analyze last season. So that's what I've been pouring my time into over the past week. Pounding at this to make sure it gets done by that August 14 date, we're talking 65-plus hours per week!

By the way, I just re-uploaded an update for the Fantasy Prospects Report. In it, I put in all the teams for the draftees and when they were taken – with links for easy navigation. Simply re-upload the FPR to get the updated version.

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And as always, because I am the king of getting distracted, whenever I am at my busiest I am also more active on Twitter so be sure to follow me there. I tend to post little tidbits and discoveries as I find things.

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Last week I did a Mock expansion draft for myself (which is the best team – far better than how reality ended up) and I did one that I thought Seattle would do. For Seattle's team I ended up getting seven players correct – and zero prospects and draft pick predictions correct. The latter was because… Ron Francis didn't do any trades!

I like Ronny Franchise. I had him as a player in both my dynasties, albeit towards the end of his career (I think he ended up retiring on both my teams). But nothing but respect for him as a player. But what is he doing as a general manager? My guess is that he set a price on staying away from certain players. From many sources, he reportedly raised the price on what Vegas charged. Judging by what happened – those reports are true. Let's go over what he did wrong here:

  1. Francis raised the price when all the GMs were pretty vocal about being more conservative this time around. Not smart. He played a game of chicken and he lost.
  2. Rather than bringing his price down and getting what he could, he held firm. Presumably this is because he wanted to set the tone for future dealings. He will not be taken advantage of. What he says, he means. Period. Why is this wrong? Well, he can worry about setting that tone after the draft. For the draft itself – take what you can get. Maximize assets for the team now, worry about "tone" and reputation later. He needed to come away from this draft with extra picks and prospects in his pocket. Later, as GMs talk to him thinking he's a pushover for caving at the expansion draft, he can play hardball at that point